Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[LeeRoyxD]

Torrential downpours and continuous rumbles of thunder with the odd flash of lighting.. 

[Rain123]

Just heard a distant rumble.

[Joe Watts]

Absolutely lashing it down in Brighton with very frequent lightning to the east!

[Sussex Jules]

Woken by thunder about 3.30 quite distant that seemed to die off but in last 10 mins or so t&l right overhead with torrential rain

[Callie]

Woken by thunder about 3.30 quite distant that seemed to die off but in last 10 mins or so t&l right overhead with torrential rain

Oh yes very close and very bright!!

[William Grimsley]

Morning folks, woken up by rain here so immediately went to check iPad to be very disappointed. Absolutely no thunder has reached landfall except around the Brighton area. It looks like activity is dying instead of developing!

[Rain123]

Morning folks, woken up by rain here so immediately went to check iPad to be very disappointed. Absolutely no thunder has reached landfall except around the Brighton area. It looks like activity is dying instead of developing!

Yes its very annoying. I have stayed up ALL NIGHT just to watch some light rain . In fact the 1 distant rumble I heard could've been a plane.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Rain123

[UKSupercell]

I woke up at half 5. Got to leave house in minute. Wondering if Surrey/Heathrow area is in for a bang later. Things sure look interesting but uncertain. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I woke up at half 5. Got to leave house in minute. Wondering if Surrey/Heathrow area is in for a bang later. Things sure look interesting but uncertain.

Indeed,

Last night kind of went to plan, thunder last night was never really a dead cert, it was always on for today though and currently looks good, Shame we got a lot of cloud in between the storms from last night's storms, as I feel if we had clear skies this morning we could have some proper storms later and surface based

[cobbett]

Was expecting a nasty journey by car to Southampton but radar shows most of the rain has sheared off to the east and west .Didn't expect that !

[daveinSB]

Now living in Twickenham (need to update location) = first pulse of heavy rain looks set to miss, but it doesn't appear to be all that thundery, oh well.

 

Later however with the cells north of Caen, by the Channel Islands and the beast over east brittany/west of Orléans look promising , if not potent (french replqcement keyboard (French Wife), can't  find the exclaimation point, but (and I'm a conservative storm type)

Edited August 13, 2015 by daveinleices

[> mark]

Ooooo, I think we may have had 0.005mm of rain overnight :-?

[daveinSB]

Ooooo, I think we may have had 0.005mm of rain overnight :-?

 

Patience Mark

[Singularity]

The storms in The Channel seem to keep running ahead of the moisture plume, decaying, and then triggering new storms within the plume as their outflow interacts with the broad scale winds.

 

The plume's arrival seems a little behind schedule now, and it's become hard to figure out which 'wave' of storms - if any (!) - is going to be the first to reach land without fizzling out.

 

It's pretty random and relatively localised where storms are developing electrical activity. Currently it's all west of the IOW. So any such activity across the UK is likely to be a bonus this morning at least, the rain being the main focus as many have been saying over the past 24 hours. 

 

IF there are breaks in the cloud early-mid afternoon, temps could soar into the mid-20's in places (GFS has an optimistic 27*C just NW of Southampton), likely triggering some classic homegrown activity with a higher risk of lightning (particularly CG). Complicating matters may be further imports from The Channel... it could get very messy.

 

Then comes the possible second wave of elevated storms, which exists on some models but not others - while the NMM 18z held onto this feature and tracked it across CS England from the SE, Euro4 suddenly ditched it on its 18z run... awaiting the 00z with interest).

 

 

Has to be said, Meteociel's version of NMM is looking wide of the mark for 7am:

 

 

...but on this site, it often seems to be missing the assimilation of existing precipitation data into the first few hours of the run, which means it has to start from scratch... a waste of potential IMO. 

 

The MeteoCenter website runs the model with the assimilation, which yields a more convincing result, albeit over 3-hour intervals rather than 1-hour.

You'll have to browse to the charts via http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/EU/Europe.html#model as they can't be linked to directly.
The 2100 Thu and 0000 Fri output is particularly menacing for The Solent region as it suggests more than 60mm falling in the space of 3-4 hours.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Singularity

[Glenosnow]

And finally woken up by thunder and lightning from the slowest approach of a storm ever. About a rumble a minute though so not overly active!

A rumble a minute would be better than the nowt a minute here

[cjwardy]

The intense rain in the South East has halted & is now fizzling out. Not what my garden wanted.

Band of storms in the channel may push up, but I fear they'll die out over land too

[Raidan]

Bone dry here expected to wake up to it raining at least.have a few hours before I start work so maybe something will happen but I don't think it will be anything thundery.

[MrNooo]

No rain at all here, needless to say no thunder heard or lightening seen. Will be interesting to see how today develops.

[Chris K]

I love how it all looks pretty much the same as when I went to bed 6 hours ago even this afternoons chances look mediocre at best going by latest forecasts. Expecting more rain from the band pushing in Friday...

Edited August 13, 2015 by Chris K

[William Grimsley]

Yes, only 2.2 mm of rain has fallen here so far today after a few heavy/torrential downpours but still no thunder. Definitely not getting my hopes up today.

[cotswoldsnow]

the sun is up. maybe that'll help this mess

[Azazel]

Everything going to plan i see. All the activity out in the channel and hasn't really moved much since I went to sleep apart from an Eastward shunt.

The sun will fail to break through the clag and nothing of any real note expected here. The most boring summer of all time continues. At least its nearly over.

[Raidan]

BBC Bristol have a yellow warning for heavy rain risk of thunder.Also warning of surface flooding and lightning could be an additional hazard.

Also says very humid but it doesn't feel humid I'm sat in the garden and it's quite chilly.

I think thundery activity will be confined to south eastern areas and the south west will just get boring rain but who knows might get lucky.

[Grazy2266]

I was hoping to wake up to at least some rain, but it's bone dry and cloudy, feels rather fresh outside too.

[Mark Parsons]

Same old, gonna be more miss than hit today I fear!!!