Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[A.J]

oooh, look at that lovely cell just appeared to my SW! 

 

 

[dusk]

Mate I will be more fabulous than you will ever be

 

Got bored of fabulous at the age of nine. Swiftly moved on marvelloussnessness, and currently awesome 

 

 

Swiftly moving on......

[Harry]

MetO invent again making a complete retreat and pushing storm threat back further south and east. By its reckoning cells firing from around 21z in a line from IoW to London then spreading NE. No MCS or clustered features as ECM and NMM point towards however.

[MrNooo]

Towering ac cas here between the grot, humid, not especially warm but happy to be out, all the jets are flying into the Air Tatoo so something to watch!

[Supacell]

I have put together a map with the rough current predictions from the main models. You can probably try and muster from this areas most at risk, although it could still go wrong!

 

Black - General thunderstorm area from NMM/WRF

Blue - More intense thunderstorms from NMM/WRF

Orange - Risk zone from GFS

Yellow - Risk zone from Euro4

Red - Risk zone from Met Office

 

 

 

 

 

[dusk]

oooh, look at that lovely cell just appeared to my SW! 

 

 

Untitled.png

 

Looks like something interesting is developing in the Celtic Sea West of Pembrokeshire.....

[staplehurst]

MetO invent again making a complete retreat and pushing storm threat back further south and east. By its reckoning cells firing from around 21z in a line from IoW to London then spreading NE. No MCS or clustered features as ECM and NMM point towards however.

Areas currently depicted in the UKV are pretty much as expected. Not sure if the ECMWF does actually depict an MCS, or just a few long-tracked individual cells? Hard to tell when using 3/6 hour accumulations.

[Harry]

Areas currently depicted in the UKV are pretty much as expected. Not sure if the ECMWF does actually depict an MCS, or just a few long-tracked individual cells? Hard to tell when using 3/6 hour accumulations.

Indeed...Nick F this morning pointed towards possible MCS depiction so I went along with the that. Also, the Synoptics appear slightly more conducive for a more organised MCS formation than two weeks ago...we have a flabby low identified on GFS for example, which could serve to organise cells into a mesoscale system...but most models appear to show a cluster of discreet cells (like we saw two weeks ago) rather than the organised symbiotic organism that is an MCS

[loopydreamer]

Actually and can see two popping up inland

[steve86]

Couple of showers popped up now in the channel north of the cherbourg peninsula.

[Harry]

Actually and can see two popping up inland

Come now loopy don't tease - two what popping up where?

[A.J]

Awesome cloudscapes here, will upload pics shortly....most of the ppn is evaporating on the way down

[loopydreamer]

Around bath and one near Stratford upon avon

Oh... May be not. Sorry... Lol.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Stupid people have parked huge sports utility vehicles badly along the parking bay right where I want to park. GrrrR.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

AcCas here now.

[Mokidugway]

Stupid people have parked huge sports utility vehicles badly along the parking bay right where I want to park. GrrrR.

nothing like a GMC Yukon to spoil the view !!.

[Storm mad]

I think one area to watch for the South East is the channel south of Portsmouth. If you run the loop on sat24 you can see the cloud bubble up. I'm sure cell development will happen there soon

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I think the humidity's rising...

[Thunderbolt_]

Approximately 03:00 in the morning looks like the peak time of activity to me, going off the NetWx model. A group of elevated looks set to travel NNE as the night progresses. The main bulk of activity looks to be in SE England and the E Midlands, possibly with even one or two thunderstorms getting into W England and Wales...

 

Edited July 16, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Winter Cold]

hmmm its a close call for us isnt it Thunderbolt I think. To stay up or not to stay up.........

 

Mostly just cloudy skies here atm;

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I think we'll see those channel cells sparking up very very soon...

[Thunderbolt_]

hmmm its a close call for us isnt it Thunderbolt I think. To stay up or not to stay up.........

 

Mostly just cloudy skies here atm;

 

IMAG0151.jpg

 

I might give it until about 02:00, like I normally do during Spanish plumes. If it looks exciting around this area then I'll stay up, but if it doesn't then I'll go to bed.

Edited July 16, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[South coaster]

I think one area to watch for the South East is the channel south of Portsmouth. If you run the loop on sat24 you can see the cloud bubble up. I'm sure cell development will happen there soon

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We have lift off!! First sferic in the channel.

Game on!!

[poseidon]

Cells firing up in channel now as expected