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An area of low pressure well southwest of Hawaii has acquired enough convection over the LLCC to be considered a 30kt tropical depression. The depression is over warm waters but moderate shear. Therefore, strengthening will be slow as the depression heads generally west-northwestwards. In a few days, 01C will cross the dateline and move into the Western Pacific. By day 5, CPHC expect 01C to have winds of 60kts.

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01C has become Tropical Storm Halola, with winds of 35kts. Convection has expanded and become considerably deeper over the LLCC. Shear is low, and waters warm, so further strengthening is expected. Halola is expected to cross the dateline into the Western Pacific, then strengthen into a typhoon.

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Halola has continued to slowly strengthen as it approaches the dateline. Winds are up to 50kts. Halola will cross into the Western Pacific very soon, and is expected to continue to strengthen and become a typhoon in a couple days. Beyond this, Halola's intensity forecast is uncertain as some models are indicating an increase in shear, which could arrest further intensification.

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Halola has moved into the Western Pacific basin, and has very slowly gained a bit more strength, with winds now at 55kts according to JTWC. Moderate shear has continued to keep strengthening slow. Shear is expected to ease tomorrow, and as Halola is set to remain over warm water for at least the next 5 days, Halola should continue strengthening. Halola is expected to pass very close to, or just south of Wake Island in a few days as a strengthening typhoon. JTWC expect Halola to be a 95kt, cat 2 typhoon by day 5.

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Halola has become a typhoon and has strengthened to 85kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Further intensification is expected, but at a fairly slow pace due to moderate shear and occasional episodes of suppressed outflow. By day 5, JTWC expect Halola to be a cat 4 with winds of 115kts.

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Halola has been overwhelmed by strong shear and has significantly weakened since I last posted. Winds are down to 55kts, tropical storm status. The majority of the convection is displaced east of the LLCC, which has been partially exposed at times. Shear is expected to ease tomorrow, so re-intensification is expected, though JTWC do not expect Halola to become as strong as they originally thought due to the current weaker than anticipated intensity.

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Halola has weakened even more and is now barely a tropical storm, with winds of 35kts. The LLCC is completely exposed currently, with just some limited deep convection to the east. Halola is still forecast to re-intensify from tomorrow as shear begins to ease, but it certainly is looking fragile at the moment.

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Shear continues to adversely affect Halola, and the cyclone has become disorganised and elongated. The system has also weakened to a tropical depression, with winds down to 30kts. Shear is still expected to ease, though it is showing no signs yet. I think Halola is at risk of opening up into a wave, even if it is temporary. Long term, some intensification is still expected as shear eases and outflow improves.

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After spending 2 days as a tropical depression, Halola has finally started to reintensifiy, with winds now at 40kts, tropical storm status. Shear has lessened, and outflow has improved, allowing the strengthening. Further restrengthening is expected, and Halola is expected to become a typhoon again in about 24hrs. The storm is much better organised than it was a couple days ago, with compact, deep convection, and tight banding features.

The storm is expected to continue to head towards the west-northwest, then recurve to the north as it reaches the western extent of the steering ridge to the north. In a few days, Halola will begin to weaken as it approaches Japan, just like Nangka did, as it encounters cooler waters and increased shear.

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Halola looking like a typhoon again, 3am JTWC estimate was 60kts but I think it'll be higher at the next advisory.

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Halola has become a typhoon for the second time, with winds of 75kts. JTWC expect a new peak of 90kts (Halola's peak strength so far is 85kts).

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Halola continues to strengthen and is now a cat 2 with winds of 90kts. Halola is forecast to become a cat 3 in 12 hours with winds of 100kts by JTWC. The ridge to the north is holding strong, so the track forecast has continually trended west. It now seems like South Korea will get a strike from Halola as it recurves, keeping west of Japan entirely. It is pretty impressive that Halola has come this far west considering it originated from the Central Pacific. This long lived system has certainly travelled a fair distance!

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Halola's peak was 90kts. The system began to weaken and has continued to weaken since due to shear. Winds are down to 55kts currently. The long awaited turn to the north is occuring, and continued shear and cooling sea temperatures will continue the weakening trend.

Halola's long track, also showing the northward turn materalising:

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Halola continues the trend of long lived systems in this area of the world. The storm is 16 days old so far, making it the longest lived tropical cyclone so far this year worldwide (going by JTWC).

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17 day old Halola has finally come to an end. Land interaction, shear and now cold waters over the Sea Of Japan have brought about the demise of this very long lived system.

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