South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...

[Andy Bown]

Just dipped into single figures this morning at 9.9c, now rising steadily at 14.2c with unbroken sunshine. Rather amusing after getting drizzled on 4 out of 5 mornings while out working with the other morning lucky to not have drizzle!

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

10.5C. This morning at 05:18. Now 20c. with scattered cloud.

[knocker]

Fine morning with Cu has given way to some thick Cs/Ci.

[Evening thunder]

Didn't expect that but somehow it dropped to 5.0C here last night, just 0.1C above my (2008-2015) July record. 

 

A clear start then a day with scattered cumulus and sunny spells, though less cumulus but cirrostratus becoming increasingly thick now, and a southerly breeze.

 

Currently 19.0c after a maximum of 20.1c at 12:34

[MP-R]

Very Septemberish today - chilly last night, high of 21.7C before high cloud enroached and blocked out the sun, and a light but fresh breeze. To think this time last year I was sweating my way around a hot and humid London before returning to the West Country for a night of thunder and lightning.

[knocker]

Classic layer of Ac. A few cloud layers on the Camborne 00 ascent. Temp 13.6 and a zephyr from the SW.

 

[Nights King]

Well that rain didn't amount to much last night. cloudy and warm today. 

[Dorsetbred]

Another classic "Oops we got it wrong". A rerun of the South Today weather shows a wet day for today, and in truth what happens totally the opposite. Surely forecasting 2 days ahead is possible in this day an age?

[Gibby]

I was very surprised to see it dry above and underfoot this morning and only on close inspection was there any sign of it having rained at all. Certainly it wasn't enough to measure on my rain gauge. Poor forecasting on such a short term event.

[Evening thunder]

Just shows how complex the atmosphere can be and that the models failed to get a grip or agree between them on what would happen.

 

Yet another minor rain event here (0.6mm according to the Davis), enough to form puddles but not much else. We have had lots of these recently yet it is still quite dry with brownish grass in places. 

Edited July 19, 2015 by Evening thunder

[MP-R]

Looks like today is going to be clearer than yesterday. No rain last night either. Just breezy and cloudy to start with blue skies rapidly moving from the west.

[The Enforcer]

Another classic "Oops we got it wrong". A rerun of the South Today weather shows a wet day for today, and in truth what happens totally the opposite. Surely forecasting 2 days ahead is possible in this day an age?

Those forecasts often are contradictory even at the time they are issued, because, for example, the presenter will be saying something along the lines of "this weekend wet on Saturday but sunny on Sunday" and yet the 5-day graphic will have cloud on Saturday and showers on Sunday.

 

It really gets my goat that the BBC online weather can't get short-range forecasts right in principle. I don't mind if they can't accurately predict rainfall amounts, thunder & lightning, snow accumulations, wind speed, temperature, humidity etc etc. When I am heading out at T+0 I simply want to know if it is going to be wet or dry, or at the very least be alerted to the possibility of it being wet. Barely a week has gone by this year when there is at least one instance where it rains and yet there is no mention of rain in the forecast at T+0. As a result, there have been several examples of either myself or the washing getting soaked or outdoor social events or gardening plans having to be abandoned.

[Gibby]

Those forecasts often are contradictory even at the time they are issued, because, for example, the presenter will be saying something along the lines of "this weekend wet on Saturday but sunny on Sunday" and yet the 5-day graphic will have cloud on Saturday and showers on Sunday.

 

It really gets my goat that the BBC online weather can't get short-range forecasts right in principle. I don't mind if they can't accurately predict rainfall amounts, thunder & lightning, snow accumulations, wind speed, temperature, humidity etc etc. When I am heading out at T+0 I simply want to know if it is going to be wet or dry, or at the very least be alerted to the possibility of it being wet. Barely a week has gone by this year when there is at least one instance where it rains and yet there is no mention of rain in the forecast at T+0. As a result, there have been several examples of either myself or the washing getting soaked or outdoor social events or gardening plans having to be abandoned.

If you've got an iPhone or iPad download the Rain Alarm app which alerts you when rain reaches a set distance from you so you can take appropriate action re Washing on line etc. It works well in my locale.

[Dorsetbred]

Gibby you right of course there are apps that provide up to date information, but this is really about the inability to forecast TWO days out. I've gone back and watched the forecast again on FB South today, irrespective of any totals, it is clear that the forecast they issued was wrong, not slightly but completely. Of course we use sources for more up to date information but Joe public rely on these guys and this is a bad screw up in my opinion. But hey, it's sunny I ain't complaining (even if it looks like I am).

[ThundersnowDays]

Exactly a year to this day I was chasing one of the strongest storms in recent years for my area. That storm also produced the closest strike to me of my life so far

Wish this year was like it but oh well

By the way today is a nice day to end the week

Temp 20.C

Status: Clear skies

Edited July 19, 2015 by ThundersnowDays

[The Enforcer]

Gibby you right of course there are apps that provide up to date information, but this is really about the inability to forecast TWO days out. I've gone back and watched the forecast again on FB South today, irrespective of any totals, it is clear that the forecast they issued was wrong, not slightly but completely. Of course we use sources for more up to date information but Joe public rely on these guys and this is a bad screw up in my opinion. But hey, it's sunny I ain't complaining (even if it looks like I am).

How about getting it wrong 17 mins out - check this:

 

 

People in the Southampton area must have been wondering what on earth was going on. There can't be any windows in the BBC South studio, otherwise it would have been blatantly obvious before posting it that the forecast had gone awry.

Edited July 19, 2015 by The Enforcer

[The Enforcer]

If you've got an iPhone or iPad download the Rain Alarm app which alerts you when rain reaches a set distance from you so you can take appropriate action re Washing on line etc. It works well in my locale.

Got it - much appreciated thanks.

[Andy Bown]

Barely any measurable rain after the briefest of bursts around 06.00 followed by a mostly sunny day either side of the very weak trough which brought an hour of low cloud late morning. The change in airmass was very discernable though, from quite humid this morning to a fresher but very warm afternoon.

 

Having watched Countryfile I struggle to see why the Model Discussion is so downbeat, after tomorrow's vile muggy drizzlyness (aka a repeat of most of last week's mornings so very little point in radar viewing!) it seems a mostly fine week to come with a large HIGH waiting to move in from the W/SW by the weekend.

 

Knocker ; we're coming to Cornwall for a week from next Saturday so expect you to pull in that HIGH and make sure it remains in situ please lol ! Temperatures don't matter, I'll more than settle for 20c max if it's a mostly dry week!

[knocker]

No probs Andy although you might be a few days too early

 

Today.

Cloudy with sheet of St and muggy with mist (humidity 100%), Temp 16.5C and wind SSW 13mph.

[Dorsetbred]

Drizzle to begin the day, with mist shrouding the tops of the highest buildings in Bournemouth, and blocking the view out to Old Harry. Currently: 15.9°C, RH 92 %,

[ARTDEMOLE]

Overcast with low cloud on the hills. Mist/drizzle in the valley. Five degrees down on this time yesterday. 16.1c. Humidity 93%rh. Maybe some light chance of precipitation today late afternoon.

[Rich_Clements]

Yesterday was one of those occasions that I was glad they got the forecast wrong.

 

Today is damp and humid 

[MP-R]

Back to the July 2015 - grey and humid with occasional drizzle. This week also looking even less summery than before on recent model runs.

 

Preying for a dry and warm day on Saturday for my birthday bbq.

[Andy Bown]

Strange old day ; very muggy with low cloud and drizzle until mid morning, brighter for a while then a sharp shower late morning followed by spells of very warm sunshine this afternoon and drizzly showers blowing through quickly on a surprisingly strong SW wind.

No probs Andy although you might be a few days too early

Yes unfortunately, cheers, well we'll see!

[Nights King]

Strange old day ; very muggy with low cloud and drizzle until mid morning, brighter for a while then a sharp shower late morning followed by spells of very warm sunshine this afternoon and drizzly showers blowing through quickly on a surprisingly strong SW wind.

Yes unfortunately, cheers, well we'll see!

 

Strange? Nothing strange about this weather, its what we are used to now, just the usual rubbish.