Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Basically I decided two weeks ago that it doesn't matter how much science you look at - sometimes storms just 'do their own thing'

[A.J]

The trough is a forcing mechanism, hence the convection....remember, cape and lift are a mark of the air's potential available energy and buoyancy....if the forcing mechanism is strong enough and there's colder air aloft then you don't require much inherent instability

[William Grimsley]

New thunderstorm just north of Brest Peninsual now.

The trough is a forcing mechanism, hence the convection....remember, cape and lift are a mark of the air's potential available energy and buoyancy....if the forcing mechanism is strong enough and there's colder air aloft then you don't require much inherent instability

Well, we knew when AJ came along that everything would be explained, now I'm interested...

Now, I wasn't even thinking about thunderstorms today, maybe it might happen now...

[A.J]

New thunderstorm just north of Brest Peninsual now.

Well, we knew when AJ came along that everything would be explained, now I'm interested...

lol.....I'm making it up as I go along....it'll snow as well

[mildmuck]

I did have a quick glance at the rainfall forecast map from Met Office.  

 

Suggests some heavy rain moving in from the west later into the Midlands, pressure dropping quite a bit.

 

 

 

Anyone else's thoughts on this ?? 

Edited July 10, 2015 by mildmuck

[Supacell]

Matt Taylor on BBC says a line of storms moving through overnight - Midlands north.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Supacell

[William Grimsley]

I did have a quick glance at the rainfall forecast map from Met Office.  

 

Suggests some heavy rain moving in from the west later into the Midlands, pressure dropping quite a bit.

 

 

 

Anyone else's thoughts on this ?? 

That map has me down for getting a heavy shower around 21:00 so it's possible.

[Gordon Webb]

Matt Taylor on BBC says a line of storms moving through overnight - Midlands north.

 

of course he did say heaviest rain further north as well , I'll be well unhappy if anything comes of this considering I just mowed the garden and was expecting very little rain

Edited July 10, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Spikecollie]

Some very interesting cloud formations as I was driving back from Lancs. today. Lots of virga, and now there are some Accas thrown in the mix too. And the MO mentions the t-word over the Dales. Either way warm and unstable feeling and looking here...who knows what the night could bring (weather wise I mean). Lots of nice Picpoul blanc on standby!

[William Grimsley]

Cell south of Cornwall now just gone bang! Off we go!

[Methuselah]

lol.....I'm making it up as I go along....it'll snow as well

I never had you down for a Sun-reader, aj.

[Karl83]

Awesome Mamatus clouds here in Bristol

[Costa Del Fal]

The trough is a forcing mechanism, hence the convection....remember, cape and lift are a mark of the air's potential available energy and buoyancy....if the forcing mechanism is strong enough and there's colder air aloft then you don't require much inherent instability

Must be some very strong forcing as the energy/instability is virtually zilch!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I have packed cameras in weekend bag as a precaution (even though I'm only going to Chertsey!)

Maybe some distant lightning tonight... Exciting!

[William Grimsley]

God, everything has just gone bang to my SW, clouds going up now with TCu, Ac and Ac Cas covering the sky!

[Greeny]

Fingers crossed for all those potentially in line for a storm or two! Fingers also crossed for any to bypass Gordon!

[Evening thunder]

Been some interesting cloud formations around recently, Virga and Mammatus like formations

 

Taken slightly earlier:

 

As for that cell that has quickly sprung up to my SW, come to daddy! 

Didn't really expect this due to no CAPE shown at all, even with a trough. Nice surprise though.

[Gordon Webb]

Fingers crossed for all those potentially in line for a storm or two! Fingers also crossed for any to bypass Gordon!

 

Thanks for that , though even with the forecast not expecting anything too severe even though one rumble is one to many for me and the BBC still going for heaviest rain NE England middle of the night

Edited July 10, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Supacell]

Oh to be in Lincolnshire right now.....

 

Oh wait, I am about 6 hours to early for that

[Evening thunder]

Lol no CAPE and we get this: 

 

 

Will have to see how long it lasts or if it's just a pulse type storm, activity tailing of on blitzortung now. 

[A.J]

current skies here in East Wilts......a bit of a pot pourri, plenty of mid level instability, a mixture of Ac Cas, Ac Floccus, Ac, TCu, virga, and even some mammatus...the proverbial kitchen sink!

 

[Costa Del Fal]

These current storms are in the GFS' storm risk area of about 0-10%. Lol.

Could be an interesting evening for some though the lightning maps suggest these are more pulse style storms so far. Certainly don't expect anything near the scale of last Friday tbh.

[Marcus_surfer]

Interesting radar watching in the last hour to say the least!

[Gordon Webb]

These current storms are in the GFS' storm risk area of about 0-10%. Lol.

Could be an interesting evening for some though the lightning maps suggest these are more pulse style storms so far. Certainly don't expect anything near the scale of last Friday tbh.

 

damn good job I hated last friday didn't go to sleep until 6am saturday morning

[Muffelchen]

Some very interesting cloud formations as I was driving back from Lancs. today. Lots of virga, and now there are some Accas thrown in the mix too. And the MO mentions the t-word over the Dales. Either way warm and unstable feeling and looking here...who knows what the night could bring (weather wise I mean). Lots of nice Picpoul blanc on standby!

Yep saw that here too about half an hour ago and now there is a lot of AcCas. That's why I am on here: figured something was up!