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Ed Stone

Far North Of England - Weather Chat, July 4 and on...

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Tonight's charts look a bit tasty!

2010-esque dare I say?

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Yeh dust off those keyboards looks like where all going to to be busy in here by the looks of some of those charts tonight.

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13 minutes ago, JP1972 said:

Tonight's charts look a bit tasty!

2010-esque dare I say?

 

In January too! Pretty exciting, I think the amount of WAA heading up towards Greenland could be the deciding factor, hopefully as much as the ECM!

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Just now, Andy_ said:

 

In January too! Pretty exciting, I think the amount of WAA heading up towards Greenland could be the deciding factor, hopefully as much as the ECM!

NE winds = snow making machine!

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Friday morning could deliver some interest if you are after quite low level snow. We will have quite cold uppers over the region and slack winds, if the precipitation is heavy then evaporative cooling will kick in and snow could get down to quite low levels - probably around the 200m mark, but may bring some slushy temporary accumulations to lower levels. One to keep an eye on.

Some of the posts in this thread today have in my view been written with an air of pessimism. Mid Jan last year delivered quite a bit of snow in less conducive synoptics than currently being shown.

This time next week many in the region could well be covered in snow and frost and ice will be a residual long lasting affair.

I'm just hoping for some decent winter walking weather at long last, we had one weekend (second last one in Nov) only that brought dry sunny cold weather and snow on the feels, since then its been a wet grey affair, with very few days worthy of venturing into the hills. This Sunday might be a decent day with some snow on the fells, next weekend could promise to be a great one.. but a long way off yet.. Mind decent winter walking conditions often don't set in until middle of Jan, with Feb and first half of March being far the best time of year for ice climbing and winter mountaineering.

 

Edited by damianslaw

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Well I don't know about everyone else but I am drooling at some of the outputs lately....we are approaching the reliable timeframes too instead of looking at charts 380 hours ahead.  I thought it would be years before we seen something special again (like November 2010) but fingers crossed we are on to something here.

Can't wait to hopefully have this thread bumped up with us all excitedly hammering away at our keyboards with snow reports :cold::cold::cold:

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I'd like to ask a favour.

Would the knowledgeable chaps please give us as many updates as possible please in terms of the upcoming cold weather?

Chance of snow etc (and where) as we approach the event would be really appreciated, and if you post charts so we could all learn it'd be fantastic if you can.

Thanks.

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32 minutes ago, JP1972 said:

I'd like to ask a favour.

Would the knowledgeable chaps please give us as many updates as possible please in terms of the upcoming cold weather?

Chance of snow etc (and where) as we approach the event would be really appreciated, and if you post charts so we could all learn it'd be fantastic if you can.

Thanks.

Whilst I'd far from describe myself as knowledgeable on this in comparison to some of the members I do know enough to give a brief run down as to what the driving force behind the hype is. Sorry if parts of this seem a bit patronising - I'm not sure what level of existing knowledge you or other casual members have.

Firstly lets deal with your main question as impartially as possible:

  1. What are the chances of snow? Until we get near the event this'll fluctuate like nobodies business. The main thing you need to focus on is the cold settling in, without cold air your chances of snow are zilch - once it arrives the chances are better although you do get situations like last year where you're freezing your balls off and there's no snow. Historically the best synoptic for us to get precipitation of any kind in drier periods is one that produces N'ly or NE'Ly winds -  blowing showers - this becomes increasingly important with snow showers because it also means our air is tapping into the Scandinavian air which at this time of year should be nice and cold. The main thing to look at are the precipitation charts for each model and the radar (in closer range) to gain an idea of this. The latest run of the GFS shows the chance of snow being best in our region on Wednesday night, however this outside of a reliable timeframe:

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

In terms of the upcoming weather. The cold weather proper (by this I mean 0C or below nights) won't arrive until around Monday night. The GFS keeps it here until at least Thursday/Friday - showing great potential for prolonged cold weather, but equally as likely to become a washout at this point. Below are the first and last charts showing cold weather for our region currently available for free - the numbers are degrees C:

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image
But what's much more interesting for me is some of the charts inbetween - all outside of reliable timeframe and actually in what we call fantasy island because it churns out stuff you'd amaze yourself at but rarely verifies - however even if some of these charts are downgraded they'd still be cold.

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

In terms of the Greenland high we're all tracking like mad at the minute I'm going to use the sea-level pressure charts - to make it as simple as I can make it and still understand it myself - as the white bands (signifying air pressure get closer) the windspeed increases. For our use here we basically want that area to stick over Greenland and the bands to get tighter and tighter - as it redirects air from colder parts from other areas such as the Arctic or Scandinavia towards us. I'd love a clearer explanation on this from another member as I'm still trying to understand it fully.

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Deep Snow please

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As i love snow in the winter i have been keeping a close eye on the developing cold spell heading our way next week, must say it's still looking rather messy and things will change day to day as we get nearer the time so trying to forcast where it will snow and when is anyone's guess at the moment. The main theme is it will turn much colder than we have had so far this winter although for now nothing extreme. 

I think it will be from wednesday onwards for any real cold and widespead snow prospects to arrive but we are in a favourable place and the higher you are the more snow you will see unless we get mainly coastal showers.

Hopefully everyone here who has been waiting a long time for some decent cold will have a better understanding of what it may bring over the weekend (sunday night)

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Thanks DSP. A lot of effort and an easy ish post to understand :D

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So are we not looking at north-easterlies anymore as things stand?

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12 minutes ago, JP1972 said:

Thanks DSP. A lot of effort and an easy ish post to understand :D

Cheers. Was a nice distraction from what I'm meant to be doing...

Also I think I got slightly confused.

A Greenland High should produce a north westerly flow of air.

A Scandi High should produce a north eastly flow of air.

There bot cold because there displacing the cold for us because they are displacing the air that should be over the corresponding region and pushing it towards us. Normally we fair better from NE'ly than the rest of the country but a good NW'ly will produce snow and cold on it's day for us (2010).

Can someone else please tell me if I am talking out of my weeble again? it happens a lot!

Edited by Deep Snow please

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The wind direction will vary during the week from west,NW,N,NE direction depending where the low/troughs end up to the east of uk and any disturbances the pass down in the flow which as past this time frame is harder to pick up. Generally though if you follow the lines back from where we live you can see the come from a cold north/northeast direction, dragging the very cold air ever closer. The below three charts are all 120h ahead from the latest 12z runs, the show anything from N, NE and NW (over our region)

A another good chart to look at for snow prospects is the 850 temp uppers.

ECU1-120.GIF Modele GFS - Carte prévisions  Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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Embedded northerly flows are ripe for trough formation - often popping up out of the blue and can develop into significant snowfall events if they slow down and develop wave / low pressure action. Its a long way off but such development could occur next week.

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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Embedded northerly flows are ripe for trough formation - often popping up out of the blue and can develop into significant snowfall events if they slow down and develop wave / low pressure action. Its a long way off but such development could occur next week.

I agree - we have seen if before and we are in a good position geographically speaking.  The only thing to do is to wait and see what happens come T0 but I can't help feeling a bit more optimistic.  Just hope it doesn't all go pear shaped!

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16 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

The wind direction will vary during the week from west,NW,N,NE direction depending where the low/troughs end up to the east of uk and any disturbances the pass down in the flow which as past this time frame is harder to pick up. Generally though if you follow the lines back from where we live you can see the come from a cold north/northeast direction, dragging the very cold air ever closer. The below three charts are all 120h ahead from the latest 12z runs, the show anything from N, NE and NW (over our region)

A another good chart to look at for snow prospects is the 850 temp uppers.

ECU1-120.GIF Modele GFS - Carte prévisions  Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Thanks doctor - can you clarify whether 2010 was a NE'ly or not me?

Also what am I actually looking for on the 850 to indicate a higher chance of snow?

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1 minute ago, P-M said:

I agree - we have seen if before and we are in a good position geographically speaking.  The only thing to do is to wait and see what happens come T0 but I can't help feeling a bit more optimistic.  Just hope it doesn't all go pear shaped!

One area of concern if we do get anything significant is how the period ends. If it's a sharp return to mild weather we could see widespread flooding again, not something to fret over yet but certainly unwelcome to the many people who will be getting back on their feet following recent weather. Also we could see blackouts as the national grid are short. Not trying to scare-monger but just add a dose of realism to the "Woop! Woop! Snowmaggeden" sentiment normally found in these parts.

Sources for blackout concern:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/utilities/11844750/Electricity-network-in-uncharted-territory-as-blackouts-loom.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3304011/National-Grid-pays-factories-NOT-use-electricity-multiple-breakdowns-power-stations-leads-winter-shortage.html

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5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Thanks doctor - can you clarify whether 2010 was a NE'ly or not me?

Also what am I actually looking for on the 850 to indicate a higher chance of snow?

From memory it was E, NE and I recall a NNE in there somewhere which brought the most disruptive snow to the eastern side of the Pennines.  I will try and dig some charts out to show.  The easterly was very convective in nature too which is what brought most of the very heavy snow fall / showers.

850's should be -5 or less to get snow proper although it has been known to snow in higher temps than that -1 or -2 850's...

 

Edited by P-M

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long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!

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1 minute ago, P-M said:

From memory it was E, NE and I recall a NNE in there somewhere which brought the most disruptive snow to the eastern side of the Pennines.  I will try and dig some charts out to show.  The easterly was very convective in nature too which is what brought most of the very heavy snow fall / showers.

 

 

Cheers - I've just looked at a BBC Weather forecast from January 3rd 2010 and it's definitely E'y at that point. I know we're getting out of the realm of regional discussion so apologies to other users.

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