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Ed Stone

Far North Of England - Weather Chat, July 4 and on...

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1 minute ago, P-M said:

I agree - we have seen if before and we are in a good position geographically speaking.  The only thing to do is to wait and see what happens come T0 but I can't help feeling a bit more optimistic.  Just hope it doesn't all go pear shaped!

One area of concern if we do get anything significant is how the period ends. If it's a sharp return to mild weather we could see widespread flooding again, not something to fret over yet but certainly unwelcome to the many people who will be getting back on their feet following recent weather. Also we could see blackouts as the national grid are short. Not trying to scare-monger but just add a dose of realism to the "Woop! Woop! Snowmaggeden" sentiment normally found in these parts.

Sources for blackout concern:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/utilities/11844750/Electricity-network-in-uncharted-territory-as-blackouts-loom.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3304011/National-Grid-pays-factories-NOT-use-electricity-multiple-breakdowns-power-stations-leads-winter-shortage.html

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5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Thanks doctor - can you clarify whether 2010 was a NE'ly or not me?

Also what am I actually looking for on the 850 to indicate a higher chance of snow?

From memory it was E, NE and I recall a NNE in there somewhere which brought the most disruptive snow to the eastern side of the Pennines.  I will try and dig some charts out to show.  The easterly was very convective in nature too which is what brought most of the very heavy snow fall / showers.

850's should be -5 or less to get snow proper although it has been known to snow in higher temps than that -1 or -2 850's...

 

Edited by P-M
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long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!

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1 minute ago, P-M said:

From memory it was E, NE and I recall a NNE in there somewhere which brought the most disruptive snow to the eastern side of the Pennines.  I will try and dig some charts out to show.  The easterly was very convective in nature too which is what brought most of the very heavy snow fall / showers.

 

 

Cheers - I've just looked at a BBC Weather forecast from January 3rd 2010 and it's definitely E'y at that point. I know we're getting out of the realm of regional discussion so apologies to other users.

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

One area of concern if we do get anything significant is how the period ends. If it's a sharp return to mild weather we could see widespread flooding again, not something to fret over yet but certainly unwelcome to the many people who will be getting back on their feet following recent weather. Also we could see blackouts as the national grid are short. Not trying to scare-monger but just add a dose of realism to the "Woop! Woop! Snowmaggeden" sentiment normally found in these parts.

Sources for blackout concern:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/utilities/11844750/Electricity-network-in-uncharted-territory-as-blackouts-loom.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3304011/National-Grid-pays-factories-NOT-use-electricity-multiple-breakdowns-power-stations-leads-winter-shortage.html

 

 

There is that - to be fair we need to get over the next few days and then establish where we are at...

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Cheers - I've just looked at a BBC Weather forecast from January 3rd 2010 and it's definitely E'y at that point. I know we're getting out of the realm of regional discussion so apologies to other users.

No mate discuss away - it affected the far north so talk about it lol

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Cheers - I've just looked at a BBC Weather forecast from January 3rd 2010 and it's definitely E'y at that point. I know we're getting out of the realm of regional discussion so apologies to other users.

It's good to see this thread buzzing again and popular.

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5 minutes ago, P-M said:

 

 

There is that - to be fair we need to get over the next few days and then establish where we are at...

Apologies for being a downer but do we really want -8 or 9C when they could be cutting the heating off. I'm a fan of the cold as much as any other bugger on here but I think my patience might be tried in those conditions.

 

3 minutes ago, JP1972 said:

It's good to see this thread buzzing again and popular.

Yup, it's great to see. I think there's a lot of us who lurk and then post when the realistic prospect of cold comes around. I'll try and make an effort to become more interested in zonal borefests when they come back around in March. :p

Edited by Deep Snow please
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Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Apologies for being a downer but do we really want -8 or 9C when they could be cutting the heating off. I'm a fan of the cold as much as any other bugger on here but I think my patience might be tried in those conditions.

 

Yup, it's great to see. I think there's a lot of us who lurk and then post when the realistic prospect of cold comes around.

In short - YES lol from a selfish POV

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8 minutes ago, Isolated Frost said:

long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!

Snow?

 

I just want an excuse to use the de-icer I bought in NOVEMBER :')

 

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2 minutes ago, Andy_ said:

Snow?

 

I just want an excuse to use the de-icer I bought in NOVEMBER :')

 

Having a reasonable cause to wear a coat would is nice now we've finally reached that stage. I wear one for practical reasons (more zipped pockets and a high propensity to lose things) virtually everywhere and the looks I got off a few folk on a few days in early December resembled looks I'd expect in August.

Edited by Deep Snow please

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3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Having a reasonable cause to wear a coat would is nice now we've finally reached that stage. I wear one for practical reasons (more zipped pockets and a high propensity to lose things) virtually everywhere and the looks I got off a few folk on a few days in early December resembled looks I'd expect in August.

Wearing a coat in the north east is frowned upon 365 days a year haha don't worry about it!

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8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Apologies for being a downer but do we really want -8 or 9C when they could be cutting the heating off. I'm a fan of the cold as much as any other bugger on here but I think my patience might be tried in those conditions.

 

Yup, it's great to see. I think there's a lot of us who lurk and then post when the realistic prospect of cold comes around. I'll try and make an effort to become more interested in zonal borefests when they come back around in March. :p

I love extreme weather types and all weathers in general. Do pop in frequently throughout the year.

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25 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Thanks doctor - can you clarify whether 2010 was a NE'ly or not me?

Also what am I actually looking for on the 850 to indicate a higher chance of snow?

For snow showers ideally you need dew points around zero or below and 850 uppers of -6/-7 to almost guarantee snow, plus a few other elements. As someone else mentioned you can get snow in higher uppers of -2 say aswell mainly from frontal/band snow and in heavier falls. Coastal areas may differ though.

 

I think this is correct to the best of the knowledge

Edited by doctor32
made a mistake in text

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6 minutes ago, Andy_ said:

Wearing a coat in the north east is frowned upon 365 days a year haha don't worry about it!

I understand that but I can just about appreciate it being ridiculous to some folk in 15-18C heat in July - in 11C in December with high winds and quicker cooling with darkness meaning it's gonna get cold earlier?

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13 minutes ago, Andy_ said:

Wearing a coat in the north east is frowned upon 365 days a year haha don't worry about it!

Not when you're 43yo it's not!

Although women .... well less is best shall we say :D

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3 minutes ago, JP1972 said:

Not when you're 43yo it's not!

Although women .... well less is best shall we say :D

Only 23 years to wait then.. lol

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

I understand that but I can just about appreciate it being ridiculous to some folk in 15-18C heat in July - in 11C in December with high winds and quicker cooling with darkness meaning it's gonna get cold earlier?

The lack of daylight lately especially with the amount of rain we've had has been utterly awful.

 

Hopefully some sunny days to go along with this cold spell! And ice days :D -holds breath-

 

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4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Only 23 years to wait then.. lol

Alright, don't rub it in lol!

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2 minutes ago, Andy_ said:

The lack of daylight lately especially with the amount of rain we've had has been utterly awful.

 

Hopefully some sunny days to go along with this cold spell! And ice days :D -holds breath-

 

I can barely remember seeing the sun so far this year!

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29 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Cheers - I've just looked at a BBC Weather forecast from January 3rd 2010 and it's definitely E'y at that point. I know we're getting out of the realm of regional discussion so apologies to other users.

I am fairly certain it was a prolonged NE slack flow that brought the huge snowfalls to the NE starting end November 2010.  This was from a Greenland high which developed into an omega block.   This was the first prolonged NE flow that I had seen since starting model watching and I think you would have to go back to the eighties cold spells to have anything like it.   The flow turned to easterly later, but this brought marginal conditions to the east coast, as believe it or not the cold pool was not that deep.  Certainly mot as deep as what we have the potential for in the upcoming spell.

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2 minutes ago, Freezing-Point said:

I am fairly certain it was a prolonged NE slack flow that brought the huge snowfalls to the NE starting end November 2010.  This was from a Greenland high which developed into an omega block.   This was the first prolonged NE flow that I had seen since starting model watching and I think you would have to go back to the eighties cold spells to have anything like it.   The flow turned to easterly later, but this brought marginal conditions to the east coast, as believe it or not the cold pool was not that deep.  Certainly mot as deep as what we have the potential for in the upcoming spell.

I think the main issue lies in getting 2009-10 and 2010-11 confused. Happens when people start shouting 2010 without the corresponding winter (not in this thread tbf)...

Edited by Deep Snow please

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How about a little bit of fun? A predict the highest snow depth of the upcoming spell among regular posters competition. 

I'm going with 12-15 inches from that bloke who lives in Consett but I cannot remember he's username.

Edited by Deep Snow please

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I suspect once the cold gets established it might be relatively dry with showers running down the coast on and off.
In 2010 the source of the NEasterly was important as I think it was from way over in Siberia rather than above Scandinavia which is not always that cold due to Gulf Stream. Once we had our own cold pool established with deep snow cover it took some shifting even when more 'normal' cold air arrived - similar thing happened in 1981.

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It's been a long time since I posted in here, I've been so busy! Drawn back by the prospect of snow...

The North East should have a good chance of snow as it's much easier to get convective snow from the North Sea than to rely on frontal snow, as the rest of the country will have to do.

Unfortunately I'm heading south tomorrow to go back to university after Christmas - bad timing or what! 

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