Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[kev f]

I do rate our area tonight to see something. My concern is whether it will be big intense thunderstorms or just an area of thundery rain. There is plenty of elevated instability, deep layer shear and most models this morning do show our area under some heavy precipitation. Watch this mornings forecast, a nice yellow blob across our region

 

Of course taking the blobs literally is rather futile, but it is looking good.

I'll take that!! Hope you get some good photos, I'll just be watching out the window

[alexisj9]

Just a quickie for newbies etc who are trying to find a handle on how this set-up is setting up

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/29496-guide-to-uk-thunderstorms-setups/

 

Just read down to the Spanish Plume section on there that Nick put together, charts tonight are close to the Loaded Gun scenario with DTA (differential thermal advection) fuelling the storms tonight, which means the Channel WONT KILL them off 

I'm just hoping it doesn't get stuck in the south counties all night like in 2006, caused major flooding, there were areas that were in heavy ppn for hours. Once it got to me in Croydon at about 11am it pushed through in about 20mins and the roads were like rivers.

[Darren Bown]

Tony Gilbert on UKWW saying cloud tops of up to 40,000ft and cooling to -63c!!! That is going to produce some serious lightning!!!

 

With those heights and temps - couldn't large hail be possible tonight?

[Love Snow]

Can see a server meltdown tonight

[thunderhead 2005]

Please remember also the BBC Will be using out of date data sets when these recorded bulletins go out, so the ones in the last hour were probably using 18z data from last night, unfortuntaley the weather is not upto date in this country never will be and so a forecast is usually as worthless with things changing by the second, dont hang on every forecast you see as its probably out of date already

thanks definitely looks like a loaded gun scenario, all the ingredients are there just need the the awesome cake to finish it off.

[Harsh Climate]

Can see a server meltdown tonight

 

 

Why can't these events happen at a more suitable time like (9pm-midnight.)  Instead If this all materialises it will be like midnight-5am for us!! 

 

Going to have my first all night-er me thinks as don't want to miss out on potentially the best event for years!

 

One word of caution though, I've never known anything that's initiated in the channel/northern france deliver for us! Usually fizzles out by the time it reaches here.

[Harsh Climate]

I think the best places to be tonight will be western parts of central southern england/east wales/west midlands.

[Gordon Webb]

thanks definitely looks like a loaded gun scenario, all the ingredients are there just need the the awesome cake to finish it off.

 

isn't the loaded gun scenario more likely in the SE because there's more of a cap there then elsewhere ?

[thunderhead 2005]

isn't the loaded gun scenario more likely in the SE because there's more of a cap there then elsewhere ?

it's more C/S england including the SE

[elfinpunk]

Hmmm. This happened last year... due for overnight storms when I am going out with friends, last time I passed out and missed the whole damn lot. I do it kicks off before 2am, if it does at all. Got so many apps saying storm warning but have had that all week and not so much as seen a single flash!! X

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can see a server meltdown tonight

 

horrid time though 1-2am, why can't it be in the day/evening, low viewers i'd have thought, most either in bed or out

[Gordon Webb]

yep for most looks like like an overnight job and gone by dawn well at least for me it does and anyway not going to hang around by looks of it

Edited July 3, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Staffordshire]

horrid time though 1-2am, why can't it be in the day/evening, low viewers i'd have thought, most either in bed or out

1-2 am isn't too bad, especially on a Friday night

[Harsh Climate]

1-2 am isn't too bad, especially on a Friday night

 

For you maybe, probably be a 9pm-1am job for you. For west yorkshire will be like 1am-4am.

[Azazel]

too perfect at the moment. Friday night, girlfriend at work, best friend and fellow storm enthusiast to hand, cameras charged, crate of beer, bottle of Morgan spiced, camping chairs and newspapers - just got to pick my vantage point carefully. Do i face North East or South/south west?

[Wet'n'Dry]

Night time storms can be the best visually, and even appear louder due to a lower ambient noise level.

 

I took this series last year at 3am, the final shot hasn't been photo shopped, it's literally night turned into day!

 

[joanna1971]

Hopefully I've got a great chance tonight of seeing good storms. I've even talked my partner to taking me out in the car tonight whatever the hour to chase if they don't come directly to me. Feeling nervous and anxious but excited to. My friends think I'm such a geek âš¡âš¡

[Mapantz]

Morning! The NMM 3 is uninspiring, doesn't really show anything for southern areas, only something developing across Northern England, East Anglia, at best.

The BBC forecast, regional and national, tickled me last night. Alexis Green was flashing all over the South coast. Then, immediately handed over to Nick Miller, his forecast looked completely different.

There's still so many differences between the models, which is to be expected. The best tools at hand today, are the radar and satellite imagery.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Mapantz

[Paul Sherman]

Yep night time storms always the best for lightning unless you own a lightning trigger that is.

 

Just a quick guide - I always use these settings and at these timescales, you might want to try this if you have a DSLR Camera.

 

Dusk still quite Light F16-F22 And 100 ISO With about 2-4 second exposure

Dusk fading Light F13-F16 And ISO 100 with about 2-5 second exposure

Darkness I use F7.1 - F13 And ISO 100 with anything from 5-15 second exposure

 

Daybreak see above just like Dusk.

 

Shot this a few weeks back in Pierre on an F13 Exposure at 3 seconds ISO 100

 

- Think this blew up a tree if you look closely at the bottom of the picture

 

What I have also found is if the bolt is not too bright leave the shutter open for a few seconds and you get more of the forks come out in the picture as opposed to the whiplash type single bolt.

 

Obviously sometimes the strike is soo close that it blows the picture out as well.

 

Hope this helps

Edited July 3, 2015 by Paul Sherman

[Mapantz]

Tony Gilbert on UKWW saying cloud tops of up to 40,000ft and cooling to -63c!!! That is going to produce some serious lightning!!!

Yep. Pretty low ELT's for southern areas.

There could be a lot of elevated displays tonight, if we're lucky.

[thunderhead 2005]

Yep night time storms always the best for lightning unless you own a lightning trigger that is.

 

Just a quick guide - I always use these settings and at these timescales, you might want to try this if you have a DSLR Camera.

 

Dusk still quite Light F16-F22 And 100 ISO With about 2-4 second exposure

Dusk fading Light F13-F16 And ISO 100 with about 2-5 second exposure

Darkness I use F7.1 - F13 And ISO 100 with anything from 5-15 second exposure

 

Daybreak see above just like Dusk.

 

Shot this a few weeks back in Pierre on an F13 Exposure at 3 seconds ISO 100

 

IMG_2371.JPG - Think this blew up a tree if you look closely at the bottom of the picture

 

What I have also found is if the bolt is not too bright leave the shutter open for a few seconds and you get more of the forks come out in the picture as opposed to the whiplash type single bolt.

 

Obviously sometimes the strike is soo close that it blows the picture out as well.

 

Hope this helps

Thanks great guide, im assuming you use one of those remote to take multiple shots?

 

however i can wire up my DSLR to my laptop which has the same remote setup.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well heres hoping for all of us

Edited July 3, 2015 by Surrey

[Supacell]

With those heights and temps - couldn't large hail be possible tonight?

 

Absolutely. I would not be surprised to hear of large hail reports tomorrow morning again.

[Supacell]

Yep night time storms always the best for lightning unless you own a lightning trigger that is.

 

Just a quick guide - I always use these settings and at these timescales, you might want to try this if you have a DSLR Camera.

 

Dusk still quite Light F16-F22 And 100 ISO With about 2-4 second exposure

Dusk fading Light F13-F16 And ISO 100 with about 2-5 second exposure

Darkness I use F7.1 - F13 And ISO 100 with anything from 5-15 second exposure

 

Daybreak see above just like Dusk.

 

Hope this helps

 

I use a GoPro camera and although it can get some great video of lightning I have found that if the bolt is too close or bright then on occasion you don't actually get to see the shape of the bolt but rather a very bright flash. Unfortunately you can't adjust shutter speed or exposure. I am hoping that tonight I get plenty of bites at the cherry for good lightning footage.

[tomp456]

What needs to happen for this cap to go?

A certain temp?