Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Hodgheg]

Saw a diffuse flash from sutton. Not sure where it was from due to the haziness.

[Damian Gajsler]

TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2015/004 and TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/007 

A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH and CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION have been issued at 21:35GMT on Friday July 3rd 2015 

Valid from/until: 21:35-06:00 (SVR WATCH) and 21:25-12:00 (CONV DISCUSSION) on Friday July 3rd/Saturday July 4th 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: 

Much of England along with SE Wales (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH) 

Much of western England/Wales into Scotland, and eastern Ireland, and Northern Ireland (CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION) 

THREATS 

SVR WATCH (blue box): Hail to 20-50mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; frequent CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall. 

CONV DISCUSION (yellow box): Hail to 15mm diameter; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall. 

SYNOPSIS 

A plume of moisture and instability is moving quickly northwards across the British Isles this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have formed along the warm front in N Wales/N Midlands, and within the moisture plume close to Dorset. Other thunderstorms have formed close to southern Ireland. As a strong upper trough moves in overnight, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across much of the British Isles, but the higher instability/shear combination will be reserved for the severe thunderstorm watch area. However, within this area, there is a stronger capping inversion, especially with south-eastward extent. Thus, storms may be more isolated towards SE England, and indeed may not develop here at all. 

The mixture of ~1000J/Kg of elevated CAPE and shear values of 30-40 knots across the severe thunderstorm watch area suggests that elevated supercells and well-organised multicells may develop, bringing the risk of large hail and locally strong winds. If storms tend to congeal into one or more clusters, or even an MCS, a more widespread wind threat could emerge. The tornado risk is considered low due to the slightly elevated nature of the storms. However, there may be a brief window of opportunity in the higher instability area in the south-east of the watch. 

For the convective discussion area, CAPE is somewhat more meagre, although forcing for ascent from the approaching upper trough will be stronger, and so thunderstorms are still likely. A few may become strong with moderately large hail and a few strong wind gusts. 

The activity will continue to shift northwards overnight with the risk decreasing quickly in the wake of it across southern and central areas later in the night. 

Forecaster: RPK. 
 

 

[TwisterGirl81]

I think the southwest has lucked out so far

[alijoy60]

Can also see the strikes out to sea from my window. We are about half mile from the beach.

[Norfolk Sheep]

It's a bit much, the north getting another dose of storms  All I want is a teensy weensy drop of rain, getting fed up with mowing the Mojave Desert...

[Chris K]

I think we're in with a shout Chris!

 

I am a bit confused to be honest. I was expecting more of a NE push with this because of the close vicinity of the cold front heading that way. Fingers and toes crossed that it clips us!

Edited July 3, 2015 by Chris K

[Joe Levy]

I would very much like it if we did get a storm in Devon, however I'm wondering whether our window of opportunity has closed no we're moving on the other side of the cold front? Can anyone enlighten me further?

[pip22]

The temp is still a oppressive 21C here!!

[Hodgheg]

its really kicking off here! lightning every few seconds!

[Thunder Snow]

Any chance of some storm in Carlisle,the ones the other night were amazing

[Duane S.]

Flashing every 5 seconds and just offshore, getting close

[Harry]

Just saw lightning off to my SSW....yaaaaaaaaay

[Luke Best]

Blitzortung not picking up all these IC strikes. Trust me - it's gone crazy in the Channel!

[Hodgheg]

Just saw lightning off to my SSW....yaaaaaaaaay

Yup watching the same storm i imagine, its getting quite active

[weathertoski]

I can see the lightning from this Sussex cell from my south facing Twickenham loft!

Edited July 3, 2015 by weathertoski

[Mokidugway]

Any chance of some storm in Carlisle,the ones the other night were amazing

I'd say pretty reasonable..

[pip22]

torrential rain here.

[djpaulbailey]

Visible lightning now to my South! Whoop!!

[Andy Pepler]

if those storms heading north from weymouth/purbecks carry on their track i am going to get broadsided ...better start recording the streams ..

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm pretty sure I can hear the faintest thunder, though I may be crazy!

 

This Bournemouth Cam is epic thanks for who suggested here is again: http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/AttractionsLeisure/BeachesandWaterfront/PierApproachWebcam2.aspx

Edited July 3, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mapantz]

Frequent IC lightning now. A few spots of rain too.

[Chris K]

I'm pretty sure I can hear the faintest thunder, though I may be crazy!

 

Could be the strikes near Yeovil

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Any chance of some storm in Carlisle,the ones the other night were amazing

most likely

[Damian Gajsler]

Storms seem to be absolutely exploding down south. Would any of you experts consider any of these storms to be super cells?

[Supacell]

Blitzortung not picking up all these IC strikes. Trust me - it's gone crazy in the Channel!

 

I think real time lightning is as there are lots of strikes just on and off the south coast showing.