Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[anything-but]

I'll say something, the wind has picked up here near the Dartford tunnel, just came over the bridge and it's deffo picked up from a hour ago.

[Petorious]

Now looking out my window which is an open view to a almost 180 degree view looking south, south west across fields. Looking towards Bedfordshire/Buckinghamshire and all they way across the skyline the clouds are now bubbling up quite high.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Petorious

[Costa Del Fal]

Excellent nmm 12z for the West Midlands

[Chris K]

Is there any publicly available chart that shows live synoptic movement - for example a 15 min updated page to show position of weather fronts?

[Harry]

My forecast earlier looking ok so far will wait and see how it pans out

[chapmanslade]

Cell developed rapidly N of Rennes now about to cross the Channel heading N. Also a line of cells off the SW approaches. W front moving N rapidly - this will destabilise

[Snowshine]

Some big totals on the EURO4, favouring Lincs, the Wash area. 

Gosh, this puts me in-between the two bands of precipitation!

[BenFreeman_91]

Better charge my phone and clear some memory space, looks like Peterborough might get some action!

[pad199207]

Sky to my South says it all

[ChezWeather]

My forecast earlier looking ok so far will wait and see how it pans out

A somewhat better run for the SE from UKMO 

[UKSupercell]

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-destination/saint-malo-france/ 

Cells building in Saint-Malo, France at 19:46pm their time. 

EDIT: I think from that link it says 404 not found. In order to see the 19:46 snapshot, just navigate to Saint-Malo on the map they have right there, click on it and load.  You can see cumulus building on the left of the shot.

Edited July 3, 2015 by UKSupercell

[Gordon Webb]

Gosh, this puts me in-between the two bands of precipitation!

 

certainly hope I am

[Chris K]

A somewhat better run for the SE from UKMO 

 

Ugh love how it all explodes just after  leaving the W country

[Evening thunder]

Guess it shows the EURO4 (and other models) aren't very good, as it showed Wales/NW England yesterday and now from Hants to the Wash. Though some others including me always felt the greatest risk of strong/severe storms was further east.. in fact the BBC etc have come into line with what I and sites such as convective weather UK have thought since yesterday, although that may be luck as despite my best 'instinct' based on available charts I was feeling rather confused even earlier today lol. 

[A.J]

as well as the excellent NW tools for tracking storms/ppn, here's the link for Blitzurtung's real time sferic tracker

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[chapmanslade]

Sferics from the French cell now

[it's melting...]

Here in north devon and angry looking skies incoming from the sea. Hoping ive not missed out on a big midlands storm. Hope we all get a little storm action at least tonight. Will try and post pics but scrappy wi-fi here just off for a walk and will see how it looks

[ancientsolar]

Skies towering .. At least a bit

Edited July 3, 2015 by ancientsolar

[Arnie Pie]

Bubbling up nicely here in Brum

[Dean E]

As well as the Cell near St. Malo, this area has cloud heights increasing now

 

 

Edited July 3, 2015 by SnowMania

[ChezWeather]

Latest views from TORRO over on Facebook.

 

"The latest indications suggest two broader area of thunder risk:

1) Running through SW England, Wales, the Irish Sea, into SW Scotland overnight.
2) From around Dorset to Yorkshire and areas east of this, with Central Southern England up to the Wash perhaps with the higher risk.

Of course, this is still based on model simulations of the atmosphere - in reality, a fairly volatile situation looks like evolving and the above is simply an attempt to fine tune the detail. We'll have to monitor developments.

The highest chance of severe weather, i.e. large hail and strong winds, would appear to be with activity area 2, which has more instability and wind shear to work with"

 

All we can do now is sit back and hopefully enjoy the show! Good luck to anyone chasing! 

[Andy Bown]

Numerous mid-high level convection areas passing by now, I do wonder if these will go onto develop further as they head NE through the evening, impressively the temp is holding above 25c.

[Fitzwis]

Hi all

 

A nice link to watch the cells develop over northern France, hopefully with our name on

 

http://www.gov.je/Weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

[alibabba]

I have my camera primed and ready I am two minutes from the beach looking out over the wash towards Norfolk so fingers crossed. temp dropped earlier and got quite gusty but has gone back up now and I gone calm out there. bring on the action!

[Chris K]

Temp has hovered around 25.5C here since mid afternoon! Humidity and dewpoints starting to rise slowly.