Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[summer blizzard]

I could easily see another very warm spell develop at the end of next week, again we see another tropical system eject into the polar jet off the eastern seaboard.

Entering stage left

 

Now what this does is it begins to drag colder air back into the central Atlantic causing the low to deepen, in turn the Azores high gets pushed north east towards the UK, this is working against the prevailing longwave set up with the Greenland high trying to pull cooler northerly winds over the UK. Which one will win out? At the moment the warmer solution does seem to win out in the consensus after a brief cooler blip. That said this could all change, for hotter or colder.

 

It's not a tropical system, just a relatively deep low for the time of year.

[Man With Beard]

Models suggest a return to normal conditions FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform FOR ONE DAY...EXACTLY what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK

I have helped you out by editing your post a little.

Sorry, but there's been too many unsupported exagerrations on here recently. I'd have thought the events of this week would have taught everyone not to ignore what the models are actually saying.

[ANYWEATHER]

Models suggest a return to normal conditions and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform...not what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails.

Yes youre right broadly speaking. Bit of a mish mash from gfs and ecm tonight, but the theme on a cool down is certainly present in the more reliable time frame

[knocker]

Agreed aw jma monthlys confirming this will post them when home...certainly a cool down from Monday for the forseeable

 

Well the JMA ops doesn't suportt that rather tending towards the GFS and ECM

[johnholmes]

Models suggest a return to normal conditions and actually a cooler than normal regime with a northerly platform...not what some here have forecast....British mid Summer started with a plume but seems a return to normal conditions prevails.

 

It really would be good if folk stopped quoting just the bit they prefer and give a balanced view of the model they are using? 

[Captain Shortwave]

It's not a tropical system, just a relatively deep low for the time of year.

Lesson learnt, take a look at the northern hemisphere pattern, the low comes from a weak trough currently over the US/Canadian border at the moment. 

 

To note some comments above, trying to call the rest of July as cool with northerly winds seems a little crazy to me, a one day wonder at best (Wednesday) and even then some models don't go with this. The next wee is set to be warmer than average (even taking into account a northerly incursion)

Mainland Europe still set to remain hot for the foreseeable to be honest and with the jetstream being squeezed between blocking over Greenland and the stubborn Euro high then further plumes could develop at relatively short notice. The end of next week looks like a potential marker for exactly this for now.

 

To comment further on Greenland's post, the mean 850 temperatures for our area don't drop below 6C on the ECM ens

 

Currently Thursday and Friday could turn very warm, more so in the south (average 850s for Friday are up to 14C), the north of the UK does look more mixed though again with some drier and warmer spells. All in all not a bad outlook.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

The incursion of the lw trough from the Atlantic as displayed on many ECM extended eps runs recently later week 2 is now backing west a bit. Hence, the nw/se split the likely consequence and even that not overly grim for the nw for too long.

[Man With Beard]

Tonight's NOAA 8-14 dayer:

 

 

Looks familiar? This is 20th June forecast for the week just passed:

 

 

If anyone can see a "northerly incursion" on these charts, I'll go to Specsavers in the morning!

 

I see only one thing on these charts - a burst of heat from the south. One verified completely as I expected - will the other?

[Dean E]

What a night, for me personally I did not get a full forced storm, however I did get some distant beauts of lightning displays! Models handed the situation as predicted, but I feel the GFS did well tonight.

 

However, back to what's to come...

 

GFS 18z replacing the warm plume we've had over recent days with Low pressure crossing the country towards Scandinavia midweek. This brings a cooler W/NW for a time mid week, not far from average for the time of the year. Rainfall will generally be higher than of late, especially to the North, closer to the Low centre. Showers being widespread at times.

 

 

 

Towards the latter part of next week, GFS shows a 'de-ja vu' with a new ridge being set up in the mid-Atlantic, this could lead to another plume type scenario as the hot, humid air never really leaves France and Iberia.

 

 

 

ECM too is showing the end of the week plume setup once again, with 16c uppers reaching the far south. However a whole 24/36 hours earlier than the GFS.

 

 

 

GEM showing this as well, but supporting the GFS with a warm up around next weekend

 

 

 

As mentioned as the hot, humid Continental air is never too far away, a subtle shift in wind direction would produce a different outcome all together. A very interesting outlook ahead of us.

Edited July 4, 2015 by SnowMania

[knocker]

An overview of this mornings GFS run.

 

First the anomalies from last night. High pressure sustained over Greenland with a fair amount of mobility of the upper troughs and Azores HP.  Tuesday the upper low is centred over Scotland with the trough orientate SW and the HP squashed south of the UK. This quickly evolves with the upper low moving away NE and ridge over the UK with the trough to the west. Both of these move slowly east.

 

So essentially the UK remains in the general westerly flow bringing alternate periods of unsettled and cooler periods with warmer incursions from  the south. Essentially depressions nipping along from the eastern seaboard and Azores ridging.

 

The middle of next week until the weekend sees a few days of below average temps with a depression running NE over Scotland  After that the usual dance between the LP and HP with spells of warm weather, particularly in the south. There are still signs later in the run that transient plume events could well occur in this set up so overall not a bad outlook unless you live in Stornoway

Charts weatherbell

Edited July 4, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Theevolution of the ECM is much along the lines of the GFS so same discussion applies.Depression NE middle of next week before transient plume at the weekend

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[mushymanrob]

looking promising for heat lovers.... the noaa anomaly charts seem to have taken a shift towards supporting next weekends ridge, suggesting itll be more then transitory, shifting slowly to our east (southeast) which should at least keep us in a warm, very warm, hot period with the upper airflow from the southwest/southsouthwest. 

and as knocker has pointed out, there is a close simularity to the chart that produced the current heatwave. so after an unsettled week ahead, becoming cooler (a nice break ) later in the week for a while, a gradual pressure rise should deliver another sunny war/hot spell.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is going for another spell of hot weather next Saturday though its only short lived would be looking at high 20's / low 30's on the Saturday then less hot air slowly moving in from the west during the Sunday

 

 

UKMO also shows things slowly settling down

 

 

With no sign of continental Europe loosing the heatwave anytime soon the potential is always there for the UK for further spells of hot weather

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JULY 4TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move away North this morning followed by a fresher SW airflow across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for much of the coming period. It veers to a West to East flow at times before becoming weak and broken for a time in the middle of the period before strengthening again in Week 2

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a generally NW/SE split across the UK for a lot of the time where the North and West continue to be the most changeable with some rain or showers at times whereas the South and East see the best of any dry and brighter weather with some warm sunshine at times. The period towards the end of next week though looks dry and fine for many as a ridge of High pressure becomes more dominant across the UK for a time. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route through Week 1 culminating in the ridge of High pressure next weekend. It then sends an unpleasant and unseasonal Low pressure across the UK in the second week with rain and strong winds for all before a more pleasant High pressure based summery phase moves in from the SW to end the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters still support High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of unsettledness and fine weather in equal measure across the UK.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with showers in places particularly in the North. High pressure then looks like building into the UK from the West by the second half of the week with drier and warmer conditions as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs crossing from the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain at times. The SE looks likely to stay the driest with warm weather still not far away to the SE.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows a cool and breezy week next week with some rain or showers on a blustery West then NW wind. A ridge of High pressure then builds in next weekend with some warmer drier conditions for a time which don't old for long before more Low pressure edges in from off the Atlantic across the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM after a changeable phase early next week brings High pressure back up from the SW across the South of the UK later next week. This culminates in a re-run of what's just occurred in that a thundery trough moves NE across the UK next weekend and displaces the warmth somewhat.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today has a slightly changeable look to it with the theme of a changeable and cooler start to the week with rain or showers at times. giving way to a fine and warmer period as a ridge of High pressure extends down from Iceland. It then shows another push of Atlantic energy possibly dislodging the warmer and dry conditions developed again towards the end of the run with further rain at times chiefly to the North and West

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look like maintaining warm air not far from the South but with Low pressure close to the North suggesting a West or SW flow with some rain chiefly in the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for the weather while the North and West stand greatest risk of rain at times.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.4 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.1 over 45.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 25.8 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS A slight step back is my opinion of the models today as I feel that the Atlantic is holding more influence across the UK than was shown yesterday. I still don't feel we are in for a particularly bad spell of weather but rather an indifferent one where the UK lies between the fine summery conditions held to the South and SE of us over Europe while the Low pressure areas and fronts lie across Northern and Western areas in particular with more regularity than I would like. The suggestion from this would be that there will be a lot of NW/SE split in the weather over the coming two weeks where SE is always best. There would however, be a period towards next weekend when fine and dry conditions would be more universal across the UK with some warm sunshine for all as a ridge from the Iceland area links with High pressure to the South for a time. Then through Week 2 a return to similar set-up to what we have currently looks likely with fronts invading the UK on occasion freshening things up and giving some more showery rain between the brighter periods. So all in all a rather changeable pattern is the message from me this morning but this does include a lot of dry and warm weather in the South and East at times whereas the North and West are most likely to see the coolest and most showery conditions especially early and in the middle of next week.

 

Next update from 08:00 Sunday July 5th 2015

[johnholmes]

my take on the weather for the 6-15 day time scale, as usual based on my interpretation of the 500 mb anomaly charts is:-

 

Overall sat am seeing ec-gfs and fri noaa and flow is being predicted to be more s of west than a couple of days ago but not yet back enough or with sufficient +ve heights developing to be able to say with any certainty the heat is returning. Heights suggested are around 576dm by noaa so warm not cool overall. Probability of heat based on these charts, to me, is about 40% this morning.

not repeating the links as the NOAA charts are shown by mushy.

[Methuselah]

Just noticed this GFS prediction for next Saturday morning...Look familiar?

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150704/06/165/h850t850eu.png

Edited July 4, 2015 by Ed Stone
I'm an old fogey!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows another summery spell during the second half of next week with high pressure migrating eastwards across the UK and enabling a pulse of continental heat to drift north, beyond that, it stays warm and largely settled further south / southeast.

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead on the Gfs 6z, a noticeable feature is the reloads of hot weather from the continent, apart from that, the south looks best for fine and warm conditions.

[DR(S)NO]

Looking further ahead on the Gfs 6z, a noticeable feature is the reloads of hot weather from the continent, apart from that, the south looks best for fine and warm conditions.

Yes ,as you say Frosty, reloads of hot weather are quite apparent. Also apparent is how the fine and warm weather continues to evade much of the North and and Northwest of Britain.

Summer has really failed to get going up this way....basically swapping the very cool early June for warmth in the last week or so...and tbh is doesn't seem as though there are signs of a period of decent weather.....more than a day or two, here and there.

[summer blizzard]

Models look aside from the plume next weekend to be fairly average with a mainly westerly flow and N/S split. Not really cool on the whole but more 2014 than 2013.

Undecided in where we go in the long term personally. I'm not as bullish as Tamara and the Arctic-Azores profile is not good however the Jet seems very weak allowing for these plumes.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Models look aside from the plume next weekend to be fairly average with a mainly westerly flow and N/S split. Not really cool on the whole but more 2014 than 2013.

Undecided in where we go in the long term personally. I'm not as bullish as Tamara and the Arctic-Azores profile is not good however the Jet seems very weak allowing for these plumes.

 

Yes as I stated 10 days or so back, we have the potential to go very wet this month. Abundant continental heat and painfully slow inroads by Atlantic troughing suggests that some areas may get a soaking. As you say, given the polar profile we're extremely lucky to be holding on to the dryish weather for as long as we are.

 

 

Here is the day 5 chart to highlight the points above

 

 

We're not in your typical summer dry period as such....very conflicting signals at the minute with quite a large area of above average heights around Greenland being somewhat negated by cells of HP diverging from the main azores cell into the near continent.

 

EDIT: GFS 12z has the Atlantic winning the battle by day 7

 

Edited July 4, 2015 by CreweCold

[Woollymummy]

Why are the 500 mbar anomaly charts never available? No matter when I check, it always has the usual message about updating etc

Are they now only available if you pay?

Is there another place to read them?

[knocker]

Why are the 500 mbar anomaly charts never available? No matter when I check, it always has the usual message about updating etc

Are they now only available if you pay?

Is there another place to read them?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Summer Sun]

UKMO again shows things settling down towards the end of the week

 

[Man With Beard]

A step backwards from summery weather today, actually. The ECM and GFS, on both ens and op runs, still indeed encourage short-lived plumes such as at the end of the coming week. What I see differently today is the energy in the Atlantic being upped slightly. This means any settled weather is unlikely to get particularly established, and the Atlantic trough sends pulses through the UK from time to time. Direction of travel still more from SW than anywhere else, so above average temps on the whole, but far more cooler intervals and possibly above average rainfall in parts.

I do feel these charts are slightly out compared to the NOAA anomaly chart, and certainly not in line with the ens runs off the past 2-3 days, so not enough yet to be certain of this slight change in the set-up

Edited July 4, 2015 by rjbw