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nsrobins

Potential Outbreak Great Lakes region Mon 23rd June

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Some sort of severe end regional event is likely in the Great Lakes region of WI and IL on Monday afternoon, with an SPC Enhanced at 3 days (quite rare).
The usual model spread exists but the general pattern with a very strong upper WNW flow overriding high CAPE would promote rotating supercells in the deep layers with attendant tornado probabilities.

Worth keeping an eye on if you're into late season virtual chasing.

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I might look at this in more detail later once Fathers Day duties are over. 00Z NAM places some upper wind profiles over the region, which would put metro areas including Chicago at risk IMO from a strong tornado Mon pm

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The 12Z NAM today if anything increases the chances of violent long-track tornados in S WI and N IL Mon afternoon. Some of the highest EHI and SRH values (bulk shear 70kn) this season anywhere in an impressively unstable environment must surely be a concern for the metro areas of Milwaukee and Chicago.

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Just the 5 Tornadoes today in South Dakota! Wowsers!


Just the 5 Tornadoes today in South Dakota! Wowsers!

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Still balanced this evening in the SE WI and N IL metro area for potential strong tornados.
The ingredients are there but confidence in the timings coming together is low hence SPC are holding an upgrade in risk for a few more hours.

Regardless the environment behind the MCS complex that will move W to E over the region by early afternoon is modelled to become explosively unstable with 5000+ CAPE available under a screaming 80kn W 500mb jet and a SSE surface inflow. EHI values of 8+.

Should monitor obs later as the tornado risk will be linked to the backing surface flow IMO which in turn will be dictated by the surface low and trailing CF position. We might be in a position that tornados (waterspouts) develop over the lake itself.

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:shok:

 

Check Branden clements live feed,some silo's down,poss tornado?

 

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yes i am currently watching that, much more to come for that area later on today and overnight i would expect, still no MDT out though which i would of expected by now

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Update in 30 minutes, will go Moderate I am sure of it!

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Cheers Paul,will be watching later,will the team be online?

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No Moderate risk on the latest update and there is a slight downgrade on the tornado risk 

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Oh dear,another structure down,and to top it off,it's the emergency services :( ,hope they are ok.

 

Brandon clement

 

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Update in 30 minutes, will go Moderate I am sure of it!

Where is the team paul

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Wave appears to be forming on the cold front near KS-NE border and could trigger discrete supercells in northeast KS by 21z. Best location for me at this point would be Concordia KS or between there and Falls City NE. Agree that n-c IL into IN also prime although may be merged tornadic cells there, better chase prospects in sw IA, nw MO and ne KS, possible se corner of Nebraska included. Very juicy hot and humid air mass feeding off Bill's laid down moisture in conflict with dry Pacific air mass that I am enjoying (day after day, temp anomaly here for June is +3 C).

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The latest update the most severe weather is now further south and just sw of the great lakes with Chicago and north illinois in the firing line 

 

Nothing great on the radar though at the mo

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Brandon Clement is on a tornado

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Fortunately for residents around the Lakes a less severe evening than many models forecast.

Another one for the 'wasn't it, didn't it' scrapbook

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