July 2015 CET forecasts

[summer blizzard]

Have we ever seen a July where no day saw a CET increase (i.e. a stagnant or slow decline like the above through the whole month).

[J10]

18.0c

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

18.7 C

[Roger J Smith]

Have we ever seen a July where no day saw a CET increase (i.e. a stagnant or slow decline like the above through the whole month).

 

Probably not in absolute terms but as I eyeball my excel file it seems that about 10-15 per cent are at least almost that way, one of the closer analogues to what the current GFS shows for this coming month would appear to be 1894 which ran like this (daily and cum):

 

01 _ 20.1 _ 20.1 

02 _ 19.0 _ 19.6

03 _ 15.7 _ 18.3

04 _ 15.4 _ 17.6

05 _ 17.3 _ 17.5

06 _ 20.0 _ 17.9

07 _ 15.4 _ 17.5

08 _ 14.1 _ 17.1

09 _ 15.6 _ 17.0

10 _ 15.3 _ 16.8

11 _ 15.1 _ 16.6

12 _ 14.3 _ 16.4

13 _ 15.1 _ 16.3

14 _ 14.1 _ 16.2

15 _ 13.8 _ 16.0

16 _ 14.0 _ 15.9

17 _ 14.8 _ 15.8

18 _ 14.2 _ 15.7

19 _ 14.6 _ 15.7

20 _ 14.7 _ 15.6

21 _ 15.6 _ 15.6

22 _ 14.7 _ 15.5

23 _ 14.0 _ 15.5

24 _ 15.8 _ 15.5

25 _ 18.1 _ 15.6

26 _ 16.4 _ 15.6

27 _ 17.3 _ 15.7

28 _ 17.7 _ 15.8

29 _ 17.5 _ 15.9

30 _ 16.7 _ 15.9

31 _ 16.7 _ 15.9

 

So 1894 almost made it to the end without breaking the downward cumulative trend but recovered slightly at the end. Quite a few other years looked like they might be sustaining mostly downward trends in cumulative CET and a few of those include 1887, 1895, 1930, 1936 and 1961. Of course 1976 must have as well but it went up for a few days at the start.

[95 Degrees]

18.5C please.

[Don]

18.1C please

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I would like to amend my prediction to 18.4 C please

[DAVID SNOW]

Try 17.4  ta.

[AderynCoch]

17.2

[Roger J Smith]

Posted the table of entries, so far 71 entries, median is 17.9 and all spots between 16.8 and 18.8 have been selected. These are open ... 14.9 to 15.4, 15.6, 15.7, 15.9 to 16.4, 16.7, 18.9, 19.0, 19.2 to 19.5 and 19.7 to 19.9 as well as others more exotic. The range of actual forecasts is 14.8 to 20.2.

 

About ten people upgraded at some point and I will be checking posts that can be edited as well as new posts before posting the table at midnight or so. Late entries will be edited in. The table is in the competition scores thread as usual.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3222681

Edited June 30, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Midlands Ice Age]

Guys,

I think my guess was too high. I want to come down to 17.9C please.

MIA

[Relativistic]

Hmm, think I'll have to change my original entry. Will go for 16.2C instead.

[easy-oasy]

17.9 for me please

[davehsug]

17.3c please

[Lettucing Gutted]

I hope even my guess doesn't prove to be too low...  Were going to be well above 20C for a while.

[damianslaw]

After a very warm start it will be difficult to record a below average month, especially as July tends to be a warming month, with the warmest weather of the year on average occurring second half of the month.

 

I don't see a record breaking month, but a notably warm one, lets go in between 2013 and 2014 with 18 degrees. I suspect it will be a month punctuated with atlantic incursions tempering temps somewhat.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Internet stopped working yesterday evening and I couldn't update my guess:(

 

Anyway, looking at xcweather, it seems that minima may not have dropped as low as expected, and if maxima end up a little higher too, we could see one of the warmest July days on record.

 

Here's the top 10: Rank.. Year-Day..Temperature

 

1st....1948-29.. 25.2C

2nd...1976-04.. 24.7C

3rd....1976-03.. 24.6C

4th....2006-19.. 24.5C

5th....1808-13.. 24.5C

6th....1808-14.. 24.4C

7th....1923-13.. 24.0C

8th....1852-05.. 24.0C

9th....1818-24.. 23.9C

10th..1976-05.. 23.9C

 

A minimum of 17C and maximum of 31C would place us joint 7th, (the 12z was going for 16.5C and 30.5C yesterday)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Have we ever seen a July where no day saw a CET increase (i.e. a stagnant or slow decline like the above through the whole month).

 

I agree with RJS, in absolute terms, no. But for the cumulative average, some have come very close

 

Probably not in absolute terms but as I eyeball my excel file it seems that about 10-15 per cent are at least almost that way, one of the closer analogues to what the current GFS shows for this coming month would appear to be 1894 which ran like this (daily and cum):

 

01 _ 20.1 _ 20.1 

02 _ 19.0 _ 19.6

03 _ 15.7 _ 18.3

04 _ 15.4 _ 17.6

05 _ 17.3 _ 17.5

06 _ 20.0 _ 17.9

07 _ 15.4 _ 17.5

08 _ 14.1 _ 17.1

09 _ 15.6 _ 17.0

10 _ 15.3 _ 16.8

11 _ 15.1 _ 16.6

12 _ 14.3 _ 16.4

13 _ 15.1 _ 16.3

14 _ 14.1 _ 16.2

15 _ 13.8 _ 16.0

16 _ 14.0 _ 15.9

17 _ 14.8 _ 15.8

18 _ 14.2 _ 15.7

19 _ 14.6 _ 15.7

20 _ 14.7 _ 15.6

21 _ 15.6 _ 15.6

22 _ 14.7 _ 15.5

23 _ 14.0 _ 15.5

24 _ 15.8 _ 15.5

25 _ 18.1 _ 15.6

26 _ 16.4 _ 15.6

27 _ 17.3 _ 15.7

28 _ 17.7 _ 15.8

29 _ 17.5 _ 15.9

30 _ 16.7 _ 15.9

31 _ 16.7 _ 15.9

 

So 1894 almost made it to the end without breaking the downward cumulative trend but recovered slightly at the end. Quite a few other years looked like they might be sustaining mostly downward trends in cumulative CET and a few of those include 1887, 1895, 1930, 1936 and 1961. Of course 1976 must have as well but it went up for a few days at the start.

 

 

2009 looks like one of the best candidates to me, though I doubt we'll see so much of a cool down.

 

Day.... Daily Average.... Cumulative Average

 

01... 22.5C... 22.5C

02... 21.7C... 22.1C

03... 19.1C... 21.1C

04... 17.5C... 20.2C

05... 18.1C... 19.8C

06... 16.2C... 19.2C

07... 15.1C... 18.6C

08... 14.7C... 18.1C

09... 13.3C... 17.6C

10... 14.0C... 17.2C

11... 16.2C... 17.1C

12... 17.0C... 17.1C

13... 16.0C... 17.0C

14... 16.2C... 17.0C

15... 17.3C... 17.0C

16... 16.1C... 16.9C

17... 14.9C... 16.8C

18... 15.4C... 16.7C

19... 15.0C... 16.6C

20... 15.1C... 16.6C

21... 15.1C... 16.5C

22... 16.7C... 16.5C

23... 16.6C... 16.5C

24... 15.4C... 16.5C

25... 16.1C... 16.5C

26... 15.1C... 16.4C

27... 15.7C... 16.4C

28... 14.8C... 16.3C

29... 15.4C... 16.3C

30... 14.4C... 16.2C

31... 14.3C... 16.2C

 

[Roger J Smith]

Today also likely to rank high up there on all-time list for any month ... the July table amended with qualifying August values looks like this (highest in June 23.0, September 22.6) ... I changed one thing about the table that I copied, namely, where ties exist, I don't break them.

 

1st....1948-29 JUL .. 25.2

2nd ..1995-01 AUG ..24.9

3rd...1976-04 JUL .. 24.7

4th....1976-03 JUL .. 24.6

4th ...1995-02 AUG ..24.6

6th....2006-19 JUL .. 24.5

6th....1808-13 JUL .. 24.5

8th....1808-14 JUL .. 24.4

8th... 1990-03 AUG ..24.4

10th...1923-13 JUL .. 24.0

10th...1852-05 JUL .. 24.0

12th...1818-24 JUL .. 23.9

12th..1976-05 JUL .. 23.9 (not a daily record)

12th ..2003-09 AUG .. 23.9

12th ..1990-02 AUG .. 23.9 (not a daily record)

16th .. 1825-15 JUL .. 23.7

16th .. 1923-12 JUL .. 23.7

16th .. 1948-28 JUL .. 23.7

16th . 1975-08 AUG .. 23.7

20th .. 1911-13 AUG .. 23.6 (possibly a few others, if anyone spots any missing cases let me know)

 

 

Today reminds me a bit of 9th August 2003 with the 40 deg readings in the Paris region, think it may have been hotter in London that day however.

[Great Plum]

Very late but 18.6c please

[BornFromTheVoid]

July 1st is 24.5C provisionally, making it the joint 6th warmest day on record!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

EDIT: If that daily value remains after corrections, it will be the hottest July 1st by 1.6C.

Edited July 2, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

24.5c to the 1st

 

8.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

81 to 10 averages not available at the time of posting

Edited July 2, 2015 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

8.6C above the 81-10 average I think, SS. I'll post up the other 81-10 values soon.

 

EDIT: Here are the 81-10 cumulative values.

 

1st ... 15.9C

2nd ... 15.9C

3rd ... 15.9C

4th ... 16.0C

5th ... 16.0C

6th ... 16.1C

7th ... 16.1C

8th ... 16.2C

9th ... 16.2C

10th ... 16.2C

11th ... 16.3C

12th ... 16.3C

13th ... 16.3C

14th ... 16.3C

15th ... 16.4C

16th ... 16.4C

17th ... 16.4C

18th ... 16.4C

19th ... 16.4C

20th ... 16.5C

21st ... 16.5C

22nd ... 16.5C

23rd ... 16.5C

24th ... 16.5C

25th ... 16.6C

26th ... 16.6C

27th ... 16.6C

28th ... 16.6C

29th ... 16.7C

30th ... 16.7C

31st ... 16.7C

 

Edited July 2, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks BFTV for posting the cumulatives, here's the data for 1981-2010 and record values:

 

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2014

 

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.9 (1976) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993)

 

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 22.9 (1878) ___ 8.7 (1836)

 

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 21.9 (1948) __ 10.6 (1867)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786)

 

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841)

 

[Summer Sun]

21.4c to the 2nd

 

5.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

5.5c above the 81 to 10 average