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h2005__uk__

First 30C - where and when?

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This is a bit of tomfoolery to follow on from the similar topic for the first 20C!

 

We're only two weeks into the meteorological summer, but indications are that the first 30C won't happen in the next two weeks.

 

The warmest day of the year so far was yesterday - 26.8C at Kew.

 

I'll go with 5 July at Gravesend - smashing in at 31.2C.

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Im going with Caterham coming in at 30.9C on 15th July

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I'll stick with my summer forecast of a poor CET summer which means it will probably be close to the core of the summer. 

 

I'll go for London (probably Gatwick or Heathrow) on August 5th with temperatures no higher this summer than 31.9C.  

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The way this year has gone, it might be an 'if' :(

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We're only two weeks into the meteorological summer, but indications are that the first 30C won't happen in the next two weeks.

 

 

 

Next 30c June 17 2018 following 3 dismal summers

 

With 12.3c on Christmas day 2015

 

Given my predictions are always wrong lets hope the first one gets broken soon.

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Andrewsfield is the nearest MetO station to me with freely available archived max/min data. It's a fairly good one to look at for the south-east though because it's not a 'hotspot' like Gravesend or Writtle sometimes are.

 

These are the maximums for summers since 2000. I note that 2012 achieved a >30C temp despite being a poor summer overall, but 2014 didn't achieve it despite being a good summer. Of course 2007 was bad and didn't get >30C.

 

2014: 29.6C

2013: 31.1C

2012: 30.8C

2011: 31.3C

2010: 30.1C
2009: 29.1C
2008: 27.8C

2007: 28.0C
2006: 31.2C
2005: 29.7C

2004: 28.9C

2003: 35.9C
2002: 30.0C

2001: 30.2C

2000: 27.6C

 

So if 2012 can reach 30.8C then it gives some hope for this summer reaching 30C at least once, somewhere, even if it's an average summer overall. 8)

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Glasgow on 5th August.

How about the hottest day being outside the southeast for once? It's long, long overdue.

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Andrewsfield is the nearest MetO station to me with freely available archived max/min data. It's a fairly good one to look at for the south-east though because it's not a 'hotspot' like Gravesend or Writtle sometimes are.

 

These are the maximums for summers since 2000. I note that 2012 achieved a >30C temp despite being a poor summer overall, but 2014 didn't achieve it despite being a good summer. Of course 2007 was bad and didn't get >30C.

 

2014: 29.6C

2013: 31.1C

2012: 30.8C

2011: 31.3C

2010: 30.1C

2009: 29.1C

2008: 27.8C

2007: 28.0C

2006: 31.2C

2005: 29.7C

2004: 28.9C

2003: 35.9C

2002: 30.0C

2001: 30.2C

2000: 27.6C

 

So if 2012 can reach 30.8C then it gives some hope for this summer reaching 30C at least once, somewhere, even if it's an average summer overall. 8)

 

Down in Chelmsford I don't remember 2012 being that bad a Summer. I have memories of lots sunshine and heat in August. I can't remember a great deal about June and July apart from the hot spells at the end of each month. Maybe I've just forgotten a load of bad stuff that happened.

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Down in Chelmsford I don't remember 2012 being that bad a Summer. I have memories of lots sunshine and heat in August. I can't remember a great deal about June and July apart from the hot spells at the end of each month. Maybe I've just forgotten a load of bad stuff that happened.

 

Given that June 2012 and the first half of July were diabolical i think you are right and just cant remember the bad stuff. August was fine though.

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Glasgow on 5th August.

How about the hottest day being outside the southeast for once? It's long, long overdue.

 

Has it ever happened? I know Cheltenham recorded 37C in August 1990 but I can't think of any other examples.

 

Anyway, max temps here from 1986 to 2006, and the month it was recorded in

 

1986: 28.6 - July

1987: 28.3 - July

1988: 27.9 - August

1989: 31.1 - July

1990: 34.4 - August

1991: 28.5 - July

1992: 29.1 - June

1993: 26.8 - June

1994: 29.8 - July

1995: 31.1 - August

1996: 31.1 - August

1997: 30.1 - August

1998: 26.5 - June

1999: 31.4 - August

2000: 31.7 - June

2001: 30.2 - August

2002: 30.2 - August

2003: 31.8 - August

2004: 28.5 - August

2005: 30.1 - June

2006: 31.0 - July

 

So for a 20 year period, it hit 30C more years than it didn't, then after 2007 everything went to crap. August was also the most common month.

 

I don't even want to talk about 2007-2012. Ugh. 2011 did hit 31.0C on the dot, in late June, but that's it. But the longest streak of years hitting 30C is longer than the non-30C streak.

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1978 - 28.8c Poolewe, Highland. That stat alone tells you all you need to know about Summer 1978. It was rubbish.

 

Rrea00119780604.gif

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Love how people use 1990 to 2007 as a measuring stick for our climate, one of if not the warmest UK 17 year period on record and only a tiny fraction of time in the earths lifespan, 30C+ is not common at all in the west midlands let alone northern england.

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Love how people use 1990 to 2007 as a measuring stick for our climate, one of if not the warmest UK 17 year period on record and only a tiny fraction of time in the earths lifespan, 30C+ is not common at all in the west midlands let alone northern england.

Yet the 1960s and 1980s had abnormally cold summers - not exactly fair to use them as a benchmark either. That's why averages exist - but my closest station only goes back to the 1980s. Plus, the 1990 to 2007 period wasn't exceptional - there were actually warmer periods in the 18th or 19th centuries if I recall, at least as far as the summers go.

 

Not to mention, our summers have gradually gotten warmer - so it stands to reason that the number of 30C days will increase as well - but it's worth pointing out that our summers have only gotten warmer marginally. The biggest increase in warmth in the UK has been in autumn and spring, and winter minimums.

 

Nobody said it was common - it isn't common anywhere in the UK, and only occurs a few times a year at most in the very warmest locations. But the figures speak for themselves. Just because you don't like them doesn't rubbish them.

 

Now, do everyone a favour and quit posting rubbish. Nearly everyone on here has had a go at you at one point or another for posting inaccurate tripe - so take a hint and give it up.

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Glasgow on 5th August.

How about the hottest day being outside the southeast for once? It's long, long overdue.

Hard to see how Glasgow could hit 30C before anywhere else. If it happens at all places further south will have reached 30C first.

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Hard to see how Glasgow could hit 30C before anywhere else. If it happens at all places further south will have reached 30C first.

 

Will have to be from the unusual occurrence such as this where the heat came from the NE and gave the only 30c of Summer 1977 in Scotland.

 

Rrea00119770707.gif

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Will have to be from the unusual occurrence such as this where the heat came from the NE and gave the only 30c of Summer 1977 in Scotland.

 

Rrea00119770707.gif

Madness. Just checked and that was indeed the hottest temperature anywhere in the UK in 1977, recorded close to Glasgow in Paisley.

 

Apparently in 1901 Newton Rigg in Cumbria was joint-holder of the annual highest temperature. That's where the UK's record low for April was recorded in 1917 (-15.0C).

 

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/hottest_days.htm

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Just to note that 11 out of the last 114 years we would already have had our hottest day of the year and another week from now it is almost 20!!

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