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Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

My blitzkreig lightning monitor app is not showing any activity at present, anywhere, not even in France - anyone else having same issue? Is it not working properly?

I assume you mean Blitzortung lol! Yeah there is nothing showing at all in Northern France.

 

The sun is breakng through now though.

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

GFS 6z isn't anything spectacular either :(

I'm guessing the CAPE downgrade is due to the crud we are currently under?

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

I assume you mean Blitzortung lol! Yeah there is nothing showing at all in Northern France.

 

The sun is breakng through now though.

Yes Karl. I'm in muppet mode this morn!

Those Blackthorns at the Beaufort over the years are obviously taking their toll!

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

I was just going to type the same thing. Storms initiate at the warmest part of the day, so around 3-4pm.  

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Why are people getting so disheartened? It's only 11:20! Even in the thunder-prone regions of the world, like Florida, there aren't any thunderstorms around at this time. Most of the storms today will develop after mid-afternoon.

Was just about to post the same,calm down people nothing is going to happen if it does till later this afternoon.. Chill

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

I'm guessing the CAPE downgrade is due to the crud we are currently under?

 

The values are pretty much in line with the storm forecasts though by NW/estofex etc - nothing wrong with that and precipitation is still forecast to cross over our area.

 

We need just to get rid of this cloud to be honest - forget the models it's time to watch the sat images and radar.

Edited by Chris K
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

I'm guessing the CAPE downgrade is due to the crud we are currently under?

Temperatures seem to be downgraded a degree or two. However GFS already presents this weather system to our south but reaching our shores by midday. But as temperatures and CAPE increase, thunderstorms look to develop on the Eastern Edge of this band stretching through CS England by the looks of things. This is still taking into consideration the cold front and cloud cover to the south.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Cableguy Enthusiast

Cableguy

Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
Posted

Cloud coming up from the continent is going to kill any potential i think.....time will tell but not very optimistic at present.


Why are people getting so disheartened? It's only 11:20! Even in the thunder-prone regions of the world, like Florida, there aren't any thunderstorms around at this time. Most of the storms today will develop after mid-afternoon.

 Only if clear skies allow temperatures to rise and that is currently looking unlikely, latest forecasts reflecting this.

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

Cloud coming up from the continent is going to kill any potential i think.....time will tell but not very optimistic at present.

 Only if clear skies allow temperatures to rise and that is currently looking unlikely, latest forecasts reflecting this.

This.

It's all well and good telling people to calm down but with no sign of this cloud clearing and more coming up from the continent, there's really not much reason to be optimistic. It happens literally every time

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

I think storm potential for parts of Cornwall and Devon, possibly Dorset and Somerset may be hard to come by this afternoon looking at the lump of cloud to the SW. CS England and the the East will fair better. 

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

I do wish this cloud would buzz off. A mere week from the solstice and the sun can't burn off some middle level crud - hopeless. Oh, and silly comments comparing us to Florida don't take into account they don't deal with such cloudy muck as we do.

 

I'll reserve judgment for now but we really need this cloud to clear. Seems to be the cloud is following the areas with highest CAPE.

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Cyclonic Enthusiast

Cyclonic

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

very cloudy here, but...me not bothered as the clouds have some weird and wonderful shapes to them lol

If we get any storms - bonus, if we dont i will sit and wait for next time, we only in June, plenty of time for more storms right round till novemberish time, and even beyond that storms have occured :)

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Wee bit of fretting going on with some of you Southern guys.

I would say chill, but....

Carol Kirkwood uttered the jinx word (humdingers)...and the met office warning update can only be described as something of a downgrade.

Still...early yet.

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

Well I don't know what the conditions are like on the south coast, but looking south-east from here, there's barely a cloud in the sky. It's already 23C here in Manchester.

 

attachicon.gif20150612_112711.jpg

 

Furthermore, it isn't solely heating from the sun that creates thunderstorms. They can also be created through wind convergence, orographic lifting, and frontal movements to name a few. There's plenty of opportunity today. :)

This is what the sky looks like on the South cost. Humid, but only 16 Celsius. Meh.

post-14846-0-44098800-1434105376_thumb.j

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

If I were a betting man I would wager london seeing a brief period of sparks, the Midlands and Peterborough getting something and obviously Lincolnshire later on.

Obviously, I am very happy for those people in those areas and I'm just a little jealous:p

What I predict happening imby is cloud finally clearing around 7-8pm to reveal a huge mound of cbs North of Oxford and absolutely nothing here.

The times have changed and for some reason we just don't get storms here in these kinds of set ups. We do well out of showery South westerlies.

I will of course be happy to apologise for my ranting and eat humble pie should it all go bang here later on which I hope it does, otherwise it may just be about time to find a new hobby:p

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Whether there is cloud or not in the English Channel, temperatures have hit widespread 20'c along the south coast!

 

23'c at Cambridge at 11:30am!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

The thicker cloud has made inroads here, but the sun is really having a good go at it. It is a bit of a [insert expletive here]..

Just gotta let it play out. Easy for me to say after last night, i know.

Plenty of time yet!

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

NW GFS doesn't have anything firing off to the west until 9pm, even then it's just the chance of a sporadic outbreak of storms along the line up into Cheshire before it pivots back down to the south into tomorrow afternoon.

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Whiteout74 Newbie

Whiteout74

Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
Posted

If I were a betting man I would wager london seeing a brief period of sparks, the Midlands and Peterborough getting something and obviously Lincolnshire later on.

Obviously, I am very happy for those people in those areas and I'm just a little jealous:p

What I predict happening imby is cloud finally clearing around 7-8pm to reveal a huge mound of cbs North of Oxford and absolutely nothing here.

The times have changed and for some reason we just don't get storms here in these kinds of set ups. We do well out of showery South westerlies.

I will of course be happy to apologise for my ranting and eat humble pie should it all go bang here later on which I hope it does, otherwise it may just be about time to find a new hobby:p

 

A downgrade from the Met too:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1434063600&regionName=se

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Wee bit of fretting going on with some of you Southern guys.

I would say chill, but....

Carol Kirkwood uttered the jinx word (humdingers)...and the met office warning update can only be described as something of a downgrade.

Still...early yet.

 

 

Talk about poking a hornet's nest :laugh:

 

Let's see where we are mid-afternoon.

Edited by Chris K
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Sat24 shows a slight breaking of the cloud just south of Portsmouth in the area of cloud.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Well I don't know what the conditions are like on the south coast, but looking south-east from here, there's barely a cloud in the sky. It's already 23C here in Manchester.

 

attachicon.gif20150612_112711.jpg

 

Furthermore, it isn't solely heating from the sun that creates thunderstorms. They can also be created through wind convergence, orographic lifting, and frontal movements to name a few. There's plenty of opportunity today. :)

 

Indeed! A bit of shameless self-plugging here, but I wrote a thread last year on the "triggers" for thunderstorms, might be informative info for folks while they wait for things to get going :)

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80260-what-can-act-as-a-thunderstorm-trigger/

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Harps Explorer

Harps

Posted
  • Location: Live:West London, Work:Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow, Storms. Summer: Heat, Thunder
  • Location: Live:West London, Work:Essex
Posted

The rain prediction on the met office app (which I assume I'd the UK4 model?) Doesn't show anything more than light rain spreading north through the afternoon and evening. Still a chance of a few storms later but really I'd just prefer a nice sunny day to a 5 minute thunderstorm followed by cloud and rain

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