Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Cyclonic]

Pretty cloudy here, very muggy, hoping the sun wil break through

Was a good lightning show last night, albeit short lived.

 

@ Sunnijim - No matter where the storm is, where its heading or how far away it is, i just appreciate them all nowadays as we dont have the volume of storms like we used to, or the intensity like we used to anymore (but tht is my opinion though ). Having said that there have been some good ones the past few years though

[big_treacle]

Sun is breaking through here & warming up

[Nick F]

Have updated the Netweather storm forecast this morning, with a SLIGHT risk of severe weather over central S/SW England and S Wales:

 

CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 12TH JUNE

 

Issued 2015-06-11 20:16:46

Valid: 12/06/2015 0600z to 13/06/2015 0600z

 

Synopsis

A slow-moving upper low will be situated to the NW of Iberia during Friday, with shallow thundery surface low pressure extending north from the Bay of Biscay across Sern Britain. A warm front will lift slowly north across southern Britain overnight through Friday while a cold front pushes north across southern England during Friday evenIng, with an increasingly unstable airmass spreading north across southern parts in between these frontal zones.

 

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, S MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...

 

Warm and moist theta-w plume axis characterised by steep lapse rate has spread NW across Sern Britain overnight with an area of storms moving across the English Channel affecting southern coastal areas of England earlier this morning before weakening.

 

During Friday, an increasingly moist surface flow, steep lapse rates aloft and tempeartures reaching the 24-27C across S England and south Wales is indicated to generate up to 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE this afternoon - which will allow surface-based storms to develop across the above areas this afternoon. Warm nose at 850mb will provide a cap to rising parcels from the surface and creating a 'loaded-gun' - which will further increase instabiliity. Wind convergence and rising temps  should overcome this cap this afternoon. Although vertical shear will be quite weak (20-30knts a best) strengthening southerly flow aloft should allow organisation into multi-cell clusters and even short-lived supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. Most unstable proofiles are indicated west of London across central southern/SW England and S Wales where surface convergence zone is indicated - so greatest potential for large hail and risk of flooding appears likely here - so have issued a SLIGHT risk for these areas. A brief tornado can't be ruled out either along convergence zone.

 

Further storms over France may spread north into central S and SE England this evening, as cold front spreads N into Sern UK later, perhaps with upscale growth of storm organisation into an MCS moving north Friday evening with a risk of strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rain leading to flash flooding.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Nick F

[Gordon Webb]

what directions will the storms be travelling bbc graphics indicated NW

[MP-R]

Had a few spots of rain and now the cloud is thinning with sun breaking through. I love it when my moaning causes the weather to cooperate. 

[Azazel]

Grey and drizzly here, pretty uninspiring, though Plenty of time yet and I want the storms to hold off until late afternoon

[Karl83]

Blue skies beginning to appear now!

 

Let the games begin!!

Edited June 12, 2015 by Karl83

[dec10snow]

Another 1C downgrade of temperatures by the MO to just 18C now... I know it's all meant to be later this afternoon but can't help but feel unoptimistic! Cloud does seem to be breaking up slightly but still quite a lot around!

[Mesoscale]

Something from Torro.
 

 

The long and short of this is a messy picture - the broken line of showers should continue to drift north to reach mid-Wales to the Humber by evening, perhaps with a risk of thunder, but it seems fairly low at the moment due to a lack of instability. Behind this, clearing skies over cent S and SE England, and parts of the SE Mids, should allow scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid-afternoon. These will be fairly slow moving, and there's the potential, given a flow veering from NE'erly to southerly as a shallow low drifts north, for the southern 'side' of this mass of storms to remain fairly stationary, generating an effective outflow 'front', with cells decaying as the drift north, whereas the southern side of this activity (with access to reasonably warm/moist inflow) could remain quite active. This scenario is dependant on there being some reasonable heating though.

[Supacell]

Quick question for those storm chasers here.Do you get the same buzz watching a storm miles away from your home as you would in your own garden/road/house?

Whenever i have intercepted a storm 'away from home' the pleasure factor is there for sure but still a 'if only' it had hit my area! Maybe just me?

 

I get a buzz whether out and about or at home, although the views from being out and about are much better than the houses i can see out of my windows at home. I do like the chase, as it is about trying to plot the sweet spot and then organizing to be somewhere in it whereby there are good road networks to intercept the storms if and when they come along.

 

Storm chasing can lead to disappointment and there have been a few occasions whereby I have driven a distance to hear storms have gone over my house whilst I see nothing. However, I have seen many many more storms by chasing than if I just sat at home waiting for them to come to me.

[sparky1972]

in the last 90 mins the met office forecast for here has changed 3 times, now its cloudy from midday, light patchy rain from 3pm, right through till tomorrow evening, nothing remotly heavy or thundery, oh well, theres always next time, lol

[Mesoscale]

Also checking sat24 looks like the clouds are really starting to clear out now from the South East.

[joanna1971]

Milky skies here in shrewsbury with the sun starting to burn through. Thought I would post a bit further north as im very optimistic that today will be my day. Hopefully you southerners can blow a few rogue storms towards shropshire later .

[Mapantz]

in the last 90 mins the met office forecast for here has changed 3 times, now its cloudy from midday, light patchy rain from 3pm, right through till tomorrow evening, nothing remotly heavy or thundery, oh well, theres always next time, lol

I wouldn't even give it the time of day! It had medium level cloud for my location, just as I was taking in large breaths of something burning, moments after a CG hit very nearby.

[ancientsolar]

North West of Poole, looks like some showers getting going.. intensifying.

[Mapantz]

The brightness maybe short lived for many. That hulk of cloud is moving in quite quickly.

[Harps]

Cloudy in Bedford and getting increasingly dull, give me yesterday's weather any day over this

[Chris K]

The brightness maybe short lived for many. That hulk of cloud is moving in quite quickly.

Screenshot_2015-06-12-10-21-07.png

 

Bit confused - is this the warm front making its way North? Too early for the cold front surely?

Edited June 12, 2015 by Chris K

[Wilxy]

Is the netweather radar stuck at 10:10?

[Stuart]

Is the netweather radar stuck at 10:10?

 

 

yes sure is

[tomp456]

Sun was trying to come out about 40 minutes ago, but the clouds have returned, now almost fully overcast, quit muggy out also.

Not looking good for me atm but loads of time for that to change. #believe

[Karl83]

Damn - Clouds have returned! There is just one blue patch of sky now.

[weatherobsuk]

Wow... it's already just over 20C here in Manchester, and with a long sunny break coming, I wouldn't be suprised if it's the warmest day of the year so far by noon...

 

It should hopefully get some convection going.

 

20150612_100541.jpg

 

Didn't notice that, its as hot today at 10.50am than it was yesterday at 4.30pm.

[Mapantz]

Bit confused - is this the warm front making its way North? Too early for the cold front surely?

 

I'm not 100% sure myself.

Looking at the FAX, one would assume the warm front has moved further north by now?

Here's my cheap demonstration..

 

Edited June 12, 2015 by Mapantz

[chillyblast]

Cloudy in Bedford and getting increasingly dull, give me yesterday's weather any day over this

 

I'm in East Northants and I can see that cloud front moving in from your general direction, its deep blue skies and little to no clouds otherwise. (soon to be was).