Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Heisenberg]

I agree with the caution, but surely with the temps we have progged and the synoptics showing, we have to get something this time around?? Dont we? (famous last words)

[Wivenswold]

Well, if by "we" you mean "some of us" then I'd say there's a high probability. We should temper our expectations now and look forward to a few days of sky and radar watching. It's probably a good time to remind you all that if you're away from the South East, Central and Southern counties it is written that you are less likely to see thunder at any point in the year, expectations should be managed accordingly.  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I agree with the caution, but surely with the temps we have progged and the synoptics showing, we have to get something this time around?? Dont we? (famous last words)

 

We had that last time temps showing of 28 degrees nearly 1000kj of cape and storms..

 

We ended up with cloud, warm temps and some rough storms. 

 

I am one for hyping events up as am a very positive person, but I got burnt a few times this year but did get it right on one occasion.

 

Radar, sat at the ready from Wednesday onwards

[Chris.R]

Well, if by "we" you mean "some of us" then I'd say there's a high probability. We should temper our expectations now and look forward to a few days of sky and radar watching. It's probably a good time to remind you all that if you're away from the South East, Central and Southern counties it is written that you are less likely to see thunder at any point in the year, expectations should be managed accordingly.

Hey no need to rub it in lol :-) All too painfully obvious every year, Although on the other hand it doesmake it more exciting if something does come along.

[Infinituum]

Well in our sunny corner of SW Essex we haven't been in the direct firing line for storms so far this summer, although we have had some epic torrential downpours. Am hopeful for Friday night in particular when, according to the Netweather Thunderstorm risk charts, it's meant to be the closing act on this mini-heatwave. Just purchased an oscillating tower fan online which I'll be picking up this evening. Could make the difference between a sleepless night and a restless one instead!

[Wivenswold]

Hey no need to rub it in lol :-) All too painfully obvious every year, Although on the other hand it doesmake it more exciting if something does come along.

 

Sorry. If it's any conciliation, your beer doesn't cost £5 a pint and your high streets aren't full of hipsters with top-knots, beards and boat shoes. So it's swings and roundabouts.

[Azazel]

Well, if by "we" you mean "some of us" then I'd say there's a high probability. We should temper our expectations now and look forward to a few days of sky and radar watching. It's probably a good time to remind you all that if you're away from the South East, Central and Southern counties it is written that you are less likely to see thunder at any point in the year, expectations should be managed accordingly.  

 

Surely that's no longer the case as Lincolnshire gets storms whenever and wherever they are forecast?

[Costa Del Fal]

Still looks like any storms on Wednesday will be for the East really. A lot of energy still looks wasted.

[Wet'n'Dry]

 it is written that you are less likely to see thunder at any point in the year

 

Interesting .. You CAN hear Lightning, but can you SEE thunder? 

[Wilxy]

Still looks like any storms on Wednesday will be for the East really. A lot of energy still looks wasted.

 

I still wouldn't get down about it because in these setups storms could crop up almost anywhere I feel the 06z looked a lot better in my opinion.

[Wivenswold]

Interesting .. You CAN hear Lightning, but can you SEE thunder? 

 

I found these sunglasses in the street, they allow me to see aliens and sounds. 

[sn0wman]

Still looks like any storms on Wednesday will be for the East really. A lot of energy still looks wasted.

Don't know where you're getting this from. There might be a lot of CAPE building up in the East on Wednesday but the trigger (isentropic lifting) definitely favours the West. I expect thunderstorms will break out over Wales first and then rapid initiation will probably occur over North West England and Western Scotland later on Wednesday.

[ancientsolar]

West will probably get the majority of the storms through Tuesday night.. ~ so may'be not the impressive heat to trigger them off.. but the show will be so much better at night

[Harry]

Don't know where you're getting this from. There might be a lot of CAPE building up in the East on Wednesday but the trigger (isentropic lifting) definitely favours the West. I expect thunderstorms will break out over Wales first and then rapid initiation will probably occur over North West England and Western Scotland later on Wednesday.

Not sure about this assessment either based on the current charts. A trough appears to swing in from the west during they morning which should trigger some thundery outbreaks. The trough however engages maximum heat and instability across central and eastern areas.

I think discussing 'favoured' areas is slightly misleading as most areas of the UK between Tuesday night and Thursday night and different times are at risk of thunderstorms. Potential then MAY return Friday night for SE quarter.

[William Grimsley]

Well, it looks like I might not have much chance of seeing anything even though there's so much energy available on Tuesday and Friday Night. At the moment, most people are going for eastern areas having the highest chance. It's a shame really as this could be the 2nd thundery event this year that doesn't deliver anything here.

Well, all I'm going to do is wait, radar watch and hope. Good luck everyone!

Edited June 29, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Tempest]

Don't know where you're getting this from. There might be a lot of CAPE building up in the East on Wednesday but the trigger (isentropic lifting) definitely favours the West. I expect thunderstorms will break out over Wales first and then rapid initiation will probably occur over North West England and Western Scotland later on Wednesday.

I so hope you are right Sn0wman. I'm gleeful one minute, and in despair the next. Will just have to wait patiently and see if any storms erupt over my area. Could do with a right cracker or two...or three...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well, it looks like I might not have much chance of seeing anything even though there's so much energy available on Tuesday and Friday Night. At the moment, most people are going for eastern areas having the highest chance. It's a shame really as this could be the 2nd thundery event this year that doesn't deliver anything here.

Well, all I'm going to do is wait, radar watch and hope. Good luck everyone!

Good chance of something elevated for you on Tuesday night from what I'm seeing, which as it heads East may well trigger some violent surface based storms during Wednesday.

[Wilxy]

Just had a look at Euro4 and it isn't showing much if anything for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning I think Wales and the NW England could do well Wednesday Afternoon there is still a lot of uncertainty though so I think tomorrow we will have a better idea on what is going to happen. 

[Biggin]

Don't know where you're getting this from. There might be a lot of CAPE building up in the East on Wednesday but the trigger (isentropic lifting) definitely favours the West. I expect thunderstorms will break out over Wales first and then rapid initiation will probably occur over North West England and Western Scotland later on Wednesday.

Neither of you have said where you are getting "that" from. I take yours is just a "guess" too??

[PolarWarsaw]

I have to be honest, I don't see much potential from Tuesday Night/Wednesday for anyone other than those straddling the weak cold front moving in from the west and even then, I'm not so sure it's likely to be anything of note - certainly in terms of coverage. It could be one of those events where an isolated storm smashes into the town down the round and you can barely see a cloud in the sky from your window at home. I wouldn't be considering a chase day as such, that's for certain.

[StormChaseUK]

I think a lot of the activity might be at night, especially mid level (similar to July last year) 

[Harry]

I have to be honest, I don't see much potential from Tuesday Night/Wednesday for anyone other than those straddling the weak cold front moving in from the west and even then, I'm not so sure it's likely to be anything of note - certainly in terms of coverage. It could be one of those events where an isolated storm smashes into the town down the round and you can barely see a cloud in the sky from your window at home. I wouldn't be considering a chase day as such, that's for certain.

 

If a cold front and pre-frontal trough doesn't detonate the unstable airmass expected to be in-situ, then I'm emigrating.

 

Granted not everywhere will see storms, but if most people don't see even a distant light show/stunning looking cloudscapes of distant storms, it'll be a cruel twist from mother nature. 

 

Key will be if the trough forms and where the really unstable humid air ends up...timing too will be critical. 

[Mapantz]

From my back yard perspective, it hasn't looked like being an interesting week at all.

Temperatures haven't been progged to to be anything special (remains to be seen) and i haven't seen enough to make me think "yippee" on the storm front, either.

 

However, looking at the FAX chart (as weather history pointed out yesterday) a trough is still showing from Northern Ireland, down through Wales and in to the South West.

 

 

While there's no yippee's, yet, there's still a lot to play for.

[Harry]

Euro4 currently pointing towards thunderstorms breaking out across NI tomorrow evening, running (quickly!) NE across SW, C and NE Scotland, clearing by around 6z Wednesday AM. A fairly localised but not insignificant clump of activity.

[sn0wman]

Not sure about this assessment either based on the current charts. A trough appears to swing in from the west during they morning which should trigger some thundery outbreaks. The trough however engages maximum heat and instability across central and eastern areas.

I think discussing 'favoured' areas is slightly misleading as most areas of the UK between Tuesday night and Thursday night and different times are at risk of thunderstorms. Potential then MAY return Friday night for SE quarter.

I would say that maximum instability is currently forecast to be over central and western areas during Wednesday, not central and eastern areas. Furthermore, there will be higher levels of CIN over eastern areas, reducing the likelihood of thunderstorm formation here. However, the timing of that trough certainly isn't nailed on yet, so we'll need to wait till tomorrow evening until we can give a more accurate assessment of areas of maximum instability.

I completely agree that discussing favoured areas for the whole time period (Tue-Sat) is misleading, but taking one day on its own and looking at favoured areas, like Wednesday, is fine. Friday evening looks like it could deliver some intense thunderstorms over Southern England, with more eastern areas currently favoured for the main action. Could be some real humdingers mixed in (hopefully that hasn't doomed it now!). I imagine the MO are watching the situation very closely - could be quite a bit of disruption if it comes off as currently modelled.