Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Azazel]

sod all here.

 

Does feel more "ripe" for a storm out there though than it has all year.

Gordon, I understand you have a fear of thunderstorms but I think it may be an idea that you don't go on the forum as it will not help you. It's also quite a shame to see such negative posts on this thread. It may be an idea to find some help to try to reduce this fear.

 

coming from the guy who wanted to sue the BBC after the plume fail last week? alrighty then.

 

Pay no attention Gordon

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wouldn't take a lot of sunshine to really spark these showers up. Next hour or so could be interesting if the sun does manage to break through.

[Supacell]

Met Office rainfall prediction looks interesting for the S and E Midlands this evening. Having said that, it's seems to be starting early with a rash of showers breaking out already, which isn't really what I wanted.

[poseidon]

Looks like a strike nr Birmingham in the clear slot. That particular cell showing some red on the radar.

Edited June 20, 2015 by poseidon

[Gordon Webb]

Looks like a strike nr Birmingham in the clear slot. That particular cell showing some red on the radar.

 

the question is though how many clearer slots are with all these showers breaking out already

[Arnie Pie]

Well another sat ot home....and another storm potential day ahead

With most of Birmingham still in the NSC......Best of luck to all of you Storm heads out there for later this afternoon

Suns breaking through occationally ... at least the clouds have a little form to them, this week

 

[STORMGUY]

i just had a overhead Thunderstorm.

Edited June 20, 2015 by STORMGUY

[Supacell]

A short pulse of thundery stuff just to the north of Birmingham. Currently there is very little deep layer shear modeled and so I would imagine any storms would be short lived. It is later on that shear increases - i.e 6-9pm but if things happen now and not later then things are not as promising for a more organised storm.

 

Incidentally, my weather app is showing heavy thunderstorm here at 3pm. I will know in less than an hour how accurate it is.

[poseidon]

the question is though how many clearer slots are with all these showers breaking out already

Quite. However, it is early and just for once GFS has actually increased the CAPE on the 06z for this area - must be a calculation error ;-)

And, MO have just issued a heavy rain warning for thunderstorms developing later (albeit low risk currently), so there is clearly some risk there.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1434754800

Edited June 20, 2015 by poseidon

[Gordon Webb]

A short pulse of thundery stuff just to the north of Birmingham. Currently there is very little deep layer shear modeled and so I would imagine any storms would be short lived. It is later on that shear increases - i.e 6-9pm but if things happen now and not later then things are not as promising for a more organised storm.

 

Incidentally, my weather app is showing heavy thunderstorm here at 3pm. I will know in less than an hour how accurate it is.

 

yep but by that time in'll be more in the SE parts of England or possibly East Anglia

[Gordon Webb]

Quite. However, it is early and just for once GFS has actually increased the CAPE on the 06z for this area - must be a calculation error ;-)

And, MO have just issued a heavy rain warning for thunderstorms developing later (albeit low risk currently), so there is clearly some risk there.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1434754800

 

yep warnings out for this region too , met seem to be covering there bases and just like for you the is a low risk of impact and I think they'll be gone before 10pm in my part of the world but like I said covering the bases for locations south and east during the evening period and as for sunshine it seems to be playing a game of peek-a-boo

Edited June 20, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Supacell]

yep but by that time in'll be more in the SE parts of England or possibly East Anglia

 

Unfortunately for me, yes... fortunate for you though.

 

Still a chance of some pulse storms anywhere south of Liverpool to Hull this afternoon though with the possibility of something a little more organised running across the Met Office warning area later this afternoon/evening. 

[STORMGUY]

lovely warm sunshine now after that Thunderstorm.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

See how things pan out, but I will be up for a 20-30 mile trip down the A1 if I clock some decent activity later on!

[Greeny]

yep but by that time in'll be more in the SE parts of England or possibly East Anglia

 

According to the skew-t for Norwich, Cape only appears on the 00Z and does not show on the 18z so if anything is going to happen here I reckon it will be early evening and could just become showers only if things start to die off. However summer solstace is only tomorrow so the day is long.

[Gordon Webb]

According to the skew-t for Norwich, Cape only appears on the 00Z and does not show on the 18z so if anything is going to happen here I reckon it will be early evening and could just become showers only if things start to die off. However summer solstace is only tomorrow so the day is long.

 

Summer solstice already would you believe that the days will be shortening again already even though very slowly at first (if too off topic feel free to delete)

[Gary Alan Cowee]

A few strikes now Northampton way

[Arnie Pie]

Convection really kicking in now

19c and rising

[Carl46Wrexham]

Strike between Brum and Worcester

[Gordon Webb]

Strike between Brum and Worcester

 

yep that's heading SE and there's some rain to my NW which I think maybe heading in the direction of Leicester , if it stays true to form it'll probably go barmy as it heads to the SE

Edited June 20, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[STORMGUY]

Thunder again here

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Still waiting for some sun. Drizzle here but cloud looks to be thinning now and here's hoping for some late warm spells to pack the energy in before showers arrive from the north later...

[Carl46Wrexham]

3 strikes around Cannock.

All too Far East...sadly.

[STORMGUY]

This one a bit more active.

[Carl46Wrexham]

One near Warwick