Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[johnholmes]

Has anyone got the thunder days over the past 5-10 years to compare to those say of previous 10-20 years to see if these comments have real validity? Just asking as our memories do tend to play tricks on us at times. I'm deaf so trying to compare days of thunder now with years past is not possible!

[Summer of 95]

I remember when you could sit outside on a sultry afternoon and watch cumulonimbus grow, watch the top get higher and higher, sometimes seeing it break through any cirrus. When you couldn't see the top any more because the base had grown you knew a bang was imminent.

I haven't been able to do that for years now, there is inevitably a mass of mid level cloud miles ahead of any cells and those that do make it here usually form somewhere else and are smaller than those true home-grown ones. The only time I ever see Cb tops now, they are 50+ miles away on the horizon.

[ChezWeather]

Has anyone got the thunder days over the past 5-10 years to compare to those say of previous 10-20 years to see if these comments have real validity? Just asking as our memories do tend to play tricks on us at times. I'm deaf so trying to compare days of thunder now with years past is not possible!

You can use this link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

 

To view lightning strikes for the month and thunder days back to 2001 and somewhat compare them to the pre 2000 average

 

"Days of Thunder" data only goes upto 2010 unfortunately 

Edited June 13, 2015 by ChezWeather

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I remember when you could sit outside on a sultry afternoon and watch cumulonimbus grow, watch the top get higher and higher, sometimes seeing it break through any cirrus. When you couldn't see the top any more because the base had grown you knew a bang was imminent.

I haven't been able to do that for years now, there is inevitably a mass of mid level cloud miles ahead of any cells and those that do make it here usually form somewhere else and are smaller than those true home-grown ones. The only time I ever see Cb tops now, they are 50+ miles away on the horizon.

 

Those days have gone, just like cold and snow

[sunnijim]

Has anyone got the thunder days over the past 5-10 years to compare to those say of previous 10-20 years to see if these comments have real validity? Just asking as our memories do tend to play tricks on us at times. I'm deaf so trying to compare days of thunder now with years past is not possible!

I think the wider point John is the frequancy of Spanish plume events,they would give large parts of England a thundery spell as a 'proper' thundery low worked up from Biscay,tracked over France and continued to Work North over our shores.

I'm sure days where thunder is 'heard' over the course of summers won't of changed that much,but there is a world of differance between a 'two bang' thundery shower and an all nighter! ;-)

[johnholmes]

You can use this link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

 

To view lightning strikes for the month and thunder days back to 2001 and somewhat compare them to the pre 2000 average

 

"Days of Thunder" data only goes upto 2010 unfortunately 

thank you for that, lots of information about all sorts of things, although not just for what is being discussed now unfortunately

[A.J]

Those days have gone, just like cold and snow

2 points....

 

firstly, with respect, a load of old pony IMO

& secondly, what on earth has this got to do with this current storm & convective discussion thread? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 points....

 

firstly, with respect, a load of old pony IMO

& secondly, what on earth has this got to do with this current storm & convective discussion thread? 

 

delete it then! sugar thought it was whiners thread

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Those days have gone, just like cold and snow

17-19th July 2014?

23rd July 2013?

March + January 2013?

[Mesoscale]

I got woken up at about 3:50 this morning by a very heavy shower after the main band had moved through, I was just waiting for the lightning/thunder but it never came.

I was born in 1991 and I remember terrifying storms when I was a kid (I was scared of them as well) I remember one in particular that came in about 11pm and was still going when my dad went to work at 6am (I remember it clearly because he had to bike to work).

I see someone won the Euromillions last night in the UK all £93 million of it, lets hope they are storm enthusiasts haha.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I think the wider point John is the frequancy of Spanish plume events,they would give large parts of England a thundery spell as a 'proper' thundery low worked up from Biscay,tracked over France and continued to Work North over our shores.

I'm sure days where thunder is 'heard' over the course of summers won't of changed that much,but there is a world of differance between a 'two bang' thundery shower and an all nighter! ;-)

There almost always seems to be the issue of storms dying over the Channel before reaching our shores as a big wet mess. Years gone by, as we all remember, large thunderstorms would cross the Channel without any bother, then track northwards giving much of the UK spectacular pyrotechnic displays.

I also clearly recall that prior to the storms noisy arrivals, there would be a period of lightning flashes which seemed to light up everywhere outside but no thunder would be heard.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There almost always seems to be the issue of storms dying over the Channel before reaching our shores as a big wet mess. Years gone by, as we all remember, large thunderstorms would cross the Channel without any bother, then track northwards giving much of the UK spectacular pyrotechnic displays.

I also clearly recall that prior to the storms noisy arrivals, there would be a period of lightning flashes which seemed to light up everywhere outside but no thunder would be heard.

 

I can remember those days and I'm only 26. You'd be able to stake your mortgage on a summer storm occurring at some point. I can remember periods of severe storms pushing up from the S or even the SW with lightning lighting up the sky for ages before the actual storm drifted overhead. No longer it seems....the past few years have been beyond dire for storms. Well for here anyway.

Edited June 13, 2015 by CreweCold

[chapmanslade]

I do believe there is a bit of selective memory going on here.

 

Whilst there are variations between years there have been some very thundery spells in the last few years. I think far too many people hype themselves up over potential storms with the inevitable 'let down' when they don't happen. Last year wasn't a bad year here but 30 miles away your view may be very different as storms are very localised by definition.

 

Yesterday there were pages and pages of drivel on this thread, but the pattern is familiar.

 

Day before forecast storms - good analysis of likely outcome

Late evening before - hype starts with many firmly grabbing the wrong end of the stick / Armageddon looms

Early morning of the forecast day - more hype out of all proportion seeing things that don't exist

lunchtime - this is all going wrong (before the event is supposed to start)

event time - it's in the wrong place for me

after the event - the forecasts are shocking and the Met Office should be ashamed of themselves

 

Amongst the dross there are maybe 20 or 30 good posts !

[Carl46Wrexham]

If there is one weather event I could have repeated it would be the July 1/2 1968 one. The first weather event I have any memory of. The daytime darkness, and I mean really dark! Brown streaked rain (dust from the Sahara mixed in with the rain apparently) Our greenhouse getting smashed by big hailstones. My poor mum, who was terrified of thunder, having to endure one thunderstorm after another. She was convinced it was the same storm stopping in its tracks then coming back again!!

Most vivid memory though was of the electricity substation which was just a couple of hundred yards away from the row of houses where I was living taking a direct hit from a thunderbolt....the deafening thunder and the substation blowing up...always stayed in the memory!

[cheese]

I can remember those days and I'm only 26. You'd be able to stake your mortgage on a summer storm occurring at some point. I can remember periods of severe storms pushing up from the S or even the SW with lightning lighting up the sky for ages before the actual storm drifted overhead. No longer it seems....the past few years have been beyond dire for storms. Well for here anyway.

Something has changed, definitely. Even in 2007, 2008, 2009, we had a few decent storms here - I remember two very good storms in 2009 in particular that caused all sorts of problems in Leeds including train days, and one person was struck by lightning (but they were spared). I remember one storm that occurred during the night that got everyone at school talking the following day. 2004 sticks in my mind but I'm not sure. That's another thing - nighttime storms were a lot more common.

 

Anyway, Leeds has never had a year where it didn't get at least one overhead storm,  but the frequency has decreased, and this year is the poorest yet as no thunder or lightning has been observed.

 

Personally though, I don't remember much about Spanish plumes. Most of the storms I remember seem to be homegrown. I think we're too far north to benefit from French imports.

Edited June 13, 2015 by cheese

[Harry]

We've had two Spanish plumes this year and regrettably have been (for the most part) a bit of a let down. I am only 28 so the limit of my storm archive only goes back as far as the early 90s but this year so far has not been unusual. Firstly, the big storms I recall from my youth were usually in July/August (not June) although that said living in Kent meant I perhaps witnessed more than most (on average). Certainly earlier in the year (May/June) I would see watch lightning off to my East, but the real (then) terrifying stuff often occurred in July and in particular August.

Both plumes so far this year while harbouring potential were both southern affairs. Furthermore, the second plume (yesterday) was quite frontal in nature, whereas the first plume (the previous Friday) only grazed Kent/London/Essex/EA - yes humid air covered a wider area but the explosive highly unstable stuff only grazed us.

I think the mistake that was made was these were not 'ideal' setups and accordingly we were disappointed when they didn't deliver goods.

Plumes are highly unpredictable and often bring fantastic storms but it is not a given. The CAPE charts resembling a gay pride flag is not enough to bring us storms and many more things must come into play.

Last year (as my signature confirms) was awful storm wise up until early/mid July. Thereafter it was awesome.

If my thunder day tally is 1 by the end of July I'll be concerned. As of yet we are only just in early summer so bags of time to go yet.

Keep the faith people - my gut feeling is this year will be like 2007-2012 (absolutely awful) which means it will probably be awesome

Roll on the first proper plume of the year

[Spikecollie]

I'm not a natural gloater, but I think I may have reason to assume a smug smile this evening - my sacrifice to Thor of 15 mosquitoes seems like it will pay off...

[johnholmes]

I can remember those days and I'm only 26. You'd be able to stake your mortgage on a summer storm occurring at some point. I can remember periods of severe storms pushing up from the S or even the SW with lightning lighting up the sky for ages before the actual storm drifted overhead. No longer it seems....the past few years have been beyond dire for storms. Well for here anyway.

 

It IS 13 June; so meteorologically speaking there are about 70 days left. Some of the posts I am reading remind me of late November and 'we can write off winter' now

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Even if the plumes fail, I've got Lincolnshire just down the road from me. They always seem to cop for pretty decent storms especially for home grown standards and is normally the extremity of the plume before it exits to the East.

Without doubt the best place on average for storms.

Also this time last year, it was about to go bang down in Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Surrey and Hampshire.

Edited June 13, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Andy Bown]

And to add to the above plumes can also bring spectacular storms in April, May, September and October as well as the 3 summer months.

[sunnijim]

I do believe there is a bit of selective memory going on here.

Whilst there are variations between years there have been some very thundery spells in the last few years. I think far too many people hype themselves up over potential storms with the inevitable 'let down' when they don't happen. Last year wasn't a bad year here but 30 miles away your view may be very different as storms are very localised by definition.

Yesterday there were pages and pages of drivel on this thread, but the pattern is familiar.

Day before forecast storms - good analysis of likely outcome

Late evening before - hype starts with many firmly grabbing the wrong end of the stick / Armageddon looms

Early morning of the forecast day - more hype out of all proportion seeing things that don't exist

lunchtime - this is all going wrong (before the event is supposed to start)

event time - it's in the wrong place for me

after the event - the forecasts are shocking and the Met Office should be ashamed of themselves

Amongst the dross there are maybe 20 or 30 good posts !

My original post (932) was pointing out the lack of Spanish plume activety in recent years, and the developing thundery low over Biscay that trundeled North to our shores.

I concur with nearly all of your post bar the first sentence, in the case of what my posts are talking of.

There was real longevity in those plume episodes,rather than blink and you miss it thundery episodes of recent years for most folk.

Edited June 13, 2015 by sunnijim

[Daniel*]

My memory is appalling but 2013 and 2014 (less so) were brilliant for my location a succession of good years. 2013 particularly stood out it was if I was in southern France - a very hot, sunny, humid, Summer. It was great for night time surface based thunderstorms, one night there was a spectacle of purple streaked CG lightning with huge rain droplets almost Amazon like which was blinding to observe both visually and impressively through the comfort of my window. I find people concentrate more on the bad than the good?

Edited June 13, 2015 by Daniel*

[Puddy Galore]

have been following the conversation with interest but haven't posted in this thread before. I feel things have changed with regard to thunderstorms over the last few years. I can recall as a kid growing up in the mid to late 60's ( yes I'm ancient) being terrified and crawling into bed with mum and dad because of some pretty ferocious night storms. Whilst I am ready to accept remembering childhood memories can be selective, I really DO recall some frightening nightime and late afternoon storms in the 1990's possibly because as I was so worried about whether my horse was safer inside or out during these episodes; events that went on for a good few hours. Certainly I can't recall anything remotely similar during the summer months over the last 10 or even 15-years. Yes, we've had storms but not so severe and they have few and far between and usuallly short lived affairs, last year and this year so far have not delivered at all........heres hoping......

[Sprites]

Next Thursday week one of my weather apps has an F4 wedge tornado near Gwent, but the other has a snow symbol at Norwich.

It is muggy though so maybe its a good sign of humidity and cyclonic wind, i booked the week off.

[Spikecollie]

I hope at least one of you is looking at Blitzortung -

 

"darkness falls across the land, the t-storm hour is close at hand"

 

I'm a bit scared actually, being by myself, and with this not looking like it usually does in terms of direction and just the apparent intensity of it all - it'd be nice to have some storm watching company! Wind starting to rise very significantly out there...