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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 26 Discussion - WY/CO/KS/NE

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Will be starting the day in Scottsbluff firmly in the 5% Tornado Risk Box and with a 10% Box over Wyoming and Colorado today represents the best chance of Tornadoes for Tour 3!

 

One to watch today!

 

Paul S

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UPSLOPE!

This should go MDT for both hail and tornados IMO. The RAP has some of the best superimposed EHI and SRH values so far this season, with up to 60kns of speed shear already over the region at 21Z.

Somewhere between Sterling CO and Osallala NE would be my primary target for lunch reccy

Update: 9Z models. Maybe further west towards Greeley CO required where initiation likely. The veering profile with height is amazing on the top NE corner of CO later but the LLJ is maximised SW NE.

Recurrent risk next three days in same area.

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Having chased these set-ups in June before I absolutely love easterly upslope in June, usually 2 targets are always confirmed and they are

 

DENVER-BENNETT

 

CHUGWATER-GOSHEN

 

Pick one choose one!

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Good hunting out there, hopefully we can watch the stream later if the signal plays ball and see some amazing pics as the storms roll in!

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I like Chugwater because 1 it's close to my adjusted target and 2 I like the name!

Clear defined LP low based super cells in an amazing landscape - what could be better?

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Strongest opposing flow looks to be WY based whilst greatest directional shear probably CO based, but both tend to almost straight easterly inflow with westerly upperflow. I think that I will go for a target in CO where the moisture may be slightly greater, say Nunn on the highway 85 where one can hopefully travel north or south and avoid the busier areas around Denver. I remember a severe hailer storm on the local TV stream from last year that was spectacular!

 

Also point out that I haven't weighted the local knowledge with the terrain and how this increases the risk in certain areas in the same way that Paul and Neil can.

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Denver-Bennett for me, just because I know where they are :-)

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Denver-Bennett for me, just because I know where they are :-)

You might know where they are, but are you able to do 95mph to just catch them up (Elk City LOL)

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You might know where they are, but are you able to do 95mph to just catch them up (Elk City LOL)

 

I don't know what you mean Officer :-)

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Positioned in Scottsbluff they'll be able to see the storms miles away, almost as they roll off the Rockies.

Can I hear the engines idling, I'm sure I can.

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Make sure you leave enough in the tank to get to the petrol station, lol!

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I would consider Gordon-Bennett   :closedeyes:   lets forget the police 

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Eric Kelly just South of Denver (just East of Thunder Butte !!) (Severe|Studios) - is on the only decent storm so far.  Rotation and very distinct possibility of tornado dropping.

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Eric Kelly just South of Denver (just East of Thunder Butte !!) (Severe|Studios) - is on the only decent storm so far.  Rotation and very distinct possibility of tornado dropping.

do you have a link cannot see him on tvn

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Not quite going to plan it has to be said. Primary target slow to fire but should produce before dark.

 

But watch out central KS - if anything breaks the cap there it could explode.

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Quite day in the office after yesterday's expectations. 3T's reported yesterday with the largest hail of 2.75":

 

0105 275 HANSTON HODGEMAN KS 3812 9971

 

Mother nature you can be so cruel at times!

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Not the best of days forecast-wise yesterday. The parameters were in place for tornadic supercells but for some reason the rotation in the main was only quite broad, shallow and meagre.

No time to analyse but may have a look in more detail to learn.

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