Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

The line west of Brighton looks as if it is organising on radar...my just be wishful thinking.

Interesting that the MetO still think there is potential in across our region through until evening hours...maybe the line (above) is a last ditch trough feature??

Who knows...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Fair play EURO 4

 

[Mapantz]

Seems about right looking at the latest radar grab,although i think the warning is too far West in its coverage,i think the ship has sailed storm wise for areas Such as London,Sussex etc.Kent could well be doing well for much of the day as will parts of Essex.

Possibly.

However,the warm front shows up clearly on the satellite and a clear alot between that and the showers further east, that warm front could well pep things up a bit as it trundles in to those areas that have had those breaks.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Mapantz

[Neilsouth]

Two thunderstorms, one at 7.20ish the other about 10am, shame they were one bang and gone type storms, however intense they looked on the radar

[sunnijim]

Possibly.

However,the warm front shows up clearly on the satellite and a clear alot between that and the showers further east, that warm front could well pep things up a bit as it trundles in to those areas that have had those breaks.

Screenshot_2015-06-05-10-36-54.png

Fingers crossed!,we are chasing large amounts of cloud around here,all be it the covective type which is pleasing to the eye.Sunny spells at a premium just now although humidity is punishing here.

[stainesbloke]

Loads of mid-level cloud here, very little sun or blue sky with spits and spots of rain. Wind picked up considerably from the SW, still quite warm and humid though. Not expecting anything here now but may be surprised, who knows lol

[Raidan]

Not surprised it was a East UK event.Did wake up to dark skies and it felt humid but that soon cleared to leave blue skies and hot in the sun.roll on the next chance of storms maybe mother nature will give the west a turn for a change.

[Harry]

Breeze picking up here too and there are some signs of mid level instability. The real explosive stuff has cleared away from our shores now (east Kent/Essex coast going nuts at the moment). Blitzortung also detecting some lightning (not sure where from) across different areas of the SE.

 

Still notably humid too.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Harry

[Mesoscale]

Stayed up really late last night and we didn't even get a wet fart, I would be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed but that's the game. NW France, Belgium, Luxembourg And the Netherlands looks like good spots later. I really think we need the pesky channel gone.

[Harry]

Stayed up really late last night and we didn't even get a wet fart, I would be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed but that's the game. NW France, Belgium, Luxembourg And the Netherlands looks like good spots later. I really think we need the pesky channel gone.

 

To be fair, the channel made no difference. It was simply that the gunpowder airmass only brushed us. Had it been slightly further west I suspect there'd have been many more storms. If you need an example of why I say that, look at the colder North Sea off of the Kent coast...storms exploding here at the moment.

[ChezWeather]

Hmm, those storms this morning looked really intense on the radar, and incredibly active on the lightning detector.

 

However reports on here suggesting otherwise

 

Is this because of the elevated nature of these storms?  

[lassie23]

Just had rain here in the morning, everything was further east. Did east London get anything or was it a Kent/East Anglia only 'event', if that is what you can call it.

[sunnijim]

25c, already in the Capital. What 'trigger'is there to prompt this predicted 'second wave' of afternoon SE England storms? A weak warm front to the west of London and the cold front in the West Country,the cold front ushering in fresher air this evening but progged to be a dry front by the time it arrives in the East.

[Harry]

25c, already in the Capital. What 'trigger'is there to prompt this predicted 'second wave' of afternoon SE England storms? A weak warm front to the west of London and the cold front in the West Country,the cold front ushering in fresher air this evening but progged to be a dry front by the time it arrives in the East.

 

I'm not convinced there will be any forcing mechanism.

 

I think the MetO have been overly excited in issuing the warning update they have. No model (I've seen) suggests storms/downpours will continue much through the afternoon, with the exception of perhaps EA. Already a new cell appears to be gathering around Ely, but little electrification at the moment.

 

That said, the link to the Tony Gilbert analysis (posted by someone yesterday) over on another forum, suggested that potential could exist up until around 17z across the SE...I was dubious then and remain so currently (despite the deeply humid feel and slight signs of instability aloft).

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm not convinced there will be any forcing mechanism.

 

I think the MetO have been overly excited in issuing the warning update they have. No model (I've seen) suggests storms/downpours will continue much through the afternoon, with the exception of perhaps EA. Already a new cell appears to be gathering around Ely, but little electrification at the moment.

 

That said, the link to the Tony Gilbert analysis (posted by someone yesterday) over on another forum, suggested that potential could exist up until around 17z across the SE...I was dubious then and remain so currently (despite the deeply humid feel and slight signs of instability aloft).

I think the only real chance will be around the coast of Kent and EA this afternoon, a possible sea breeze convergence trigger given the relatively light winds from the south west and the high temperatures.

A real mess of cloud types here, the ever loom mid-level stuff is now being mixed with lower level cumulus which tends to suggest that the less humid Atlantic air is already starting to gain influence.

 

Bizarrely I have just heard a rumble of thunder, despite partially cloudy skies, blitzortung confirms that it was real.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[sunnijim]

I think the only real chance will be around the coast of Kent and EA this afternoon, a possible sea breeze convergence trigger given the relatively light winds from the south west and the high temperatures.

A real mess of cloud types here, the ever loom mid-level stuff is now being mixed with lower level cumulus which tends to suggest that the less humid Atlantic air is already starting to gain influence.

Temperatures in London seem to have peaked too at 25c earlier,now 24c which backs your last point,the drop just behind that narrow strip of precipitation that moved through.A light occasional breeze now too. Edited June 5, 2015 by sunnijim

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If only it was 150 miles further west! Never mind. Always next year!!

[Noahjoe]

So disappointed last night, walked down to the beach hoping for a lightning show instead only one distant flash in two hours....oh well there'll always be another plume :')

[Captain Shortwave]

Temperatures in London seem to have peaked too at 25c earlier,now 24c which backs your last point,the drop just behind that narrow strip of precipitation that moved through.A light occasional breeze now too.

More likely London city airport got a lucky break and got a prolonged spell of clearer weather which allowed the temperatures to soar, generally in the low 20s across the south east (24C here at the moment).

[Harry]

Really is painful to watch - towering convection well off to my east, very warm and humid (clear skies) overhead, flat stratiform mess to my west.

[sunnijim]

Fat lady maybe clearing her throat but the latest radar return shows a new storm fireing just North of Hastings,and another just North of Ashford,meanwhile the trailing line of precipitation around the Portsmouth area down into France has pepped up a little.

[stainesbloke]

Turning into a bit of a disappointing day here, temp dropping now to just 20C with loads of lower level cumulus joining the mid-level muck. If only it would clear...or do something! Nope. Meanwhile, Paris is 30C already....

[Mapantz]

11:40am

11:50am

[Hirudine]

I woke up this morning and thought I'd managed to sleep through it all. Was gutted! So I'm kind of glad that that doesn't seem to have been the case, even though it's obviously rained at some point.

 

It's definitely a lot muggier today than it was yesterday.

 

Oh well, there's still next week (and the rest of summer!) to look forward to.

[Neilsouth]

More storms kicking off