Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

We'll talk about this later - not "stuck in" attending to make you aware of the need to improve your driving style and the impact that inappropriate excessive speed can have. Sorry - I worked for Speed Watch as a Town Councillor - a five year old child died in my ward hit by a speeding car (just 40 in a 30 - but you know the stats), and I'm sick of people doing 40 in my 20 zone and then at the junction being unable to get out because people are doing 50 in the 30 zone. Anyway, enjoy what show you get storm wise...

I did a speed awareness course on Tuesday and can honestly say I learned a lot and it was actually quite engaging. First thoughts were "oh god 4 hours of my life watching a slideshow and being harangued" but they were very understanding of our perceived reasons for speeding and the course was laid out to make you question what your excuses were / are for exceeding the limit and to make you tackle them yourself.

And I'm a van driver too - there's me learnt :-O

And just to keep this on-topic - did someone mention something about storms later on tonight?

[daveywoo1977]

I'm gunning for developments from the Isle of Wight Eastwards along the coast from about 3am onwards. Storms will become more organised after sunrise and there will be alot of back building of storms if any occur

[Allseasons-Si]

I know the 18z isn't out yet on this wrf-nmm

 

the 12z has the ppn starting @ 14h in the bristol area and then spreading through the midlands into S yorkshire and lincolnshire and then into the north sea,then nothing after that in the SE

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=5

 

i thought there was a second band heading for the SE

 

not trusting it of cause,radar is our best buddy,and not forgeting lightning detectors.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Spikecollie]

Apologies, it was not meant to come across like that - I'm expecting (and hoping) to learn a lot by attending. I'm not a habitual speeder and this is my first ever time in all of my years of driving. What I meant was that I was frustrated that of all of the days I could have chosen to attend I chose tomorrow. 

Apologies not needed...your mindset is clear! Enjoy any storms and drive carefully and safely - it's our most dangerous activity!

[Harry]

I think this is going to be a massive bust if im honest. Only tomorrow will there be storms... maybe.

I've got that feeling too...hope I'm wrong! Off to bed now, alarm set for 4 so I can have a gander at proceedings

[Mapantz]

Just a quick phone pic of the sort of clouds appearing here.

[Supacell]

Unfortunately I am also thinking this will be a bust. 18z GFS models another eastward shift for tomorrow and there is nothing of note anywhere near the UK on radar. Those storms over Biscay are cracking off but they are hundreds of miles away. BBC are now out on there own showing storms over the east tomorrow afternoon, all other models have them out in the North Sea.

[Allseasons-Si]

Supa,i see you are online,what do your latest obs think,will the storms get as far north as south york's or will i have to chase SE early in the morning.

 

just looked ^

Edited June 4, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Greeny]

I did a speed awareness course on Tuesday and can honestly say I learned a lot and it was actually quite engaging. First thoughts were "oh god 4 hours of my life watching a slideshow and being harangued" but they were very understanding of our perceived reasons for speeding and the course was laid out to make you question what your excuses were / are for exceeding the limit and to make you tackle them yourself.

And I'm a van driver too - there's me learnt :-O

And just to keep this on-topic - did someone mention something about storms later on tonight?

 

Looks like I may be in the same gang as well, not had a ticket for years. I usually stick to the limits for that very reason, been through a few mobile speed cameras with no issues, however not being perfect I lapsed on that particular day and for that short time. I drive for my job and do a lot of it and it's a lot of time making sure speed limits are not exceeded, I don't know how anyone would be able to stick precisely to speed limits all the time, we are only human and our minds can stray. Then you get that driver thats pushing you along right up your butt! I pull over and let them pass now, let them get the tickets!

 

Just to get back on topic, good luck all who is in with a shout for the next few hours!

[alexisj9]

Conditions in the centre of Norwich 15 mins ago.

I'm somewhat sceptical of the humidity though, I'm just north of the city centre and it doesn't feel that humid.

I have 84% humidity on my station.

[Ben Sainsbury]

First few storms possibly forming between Brest and Rennes, grown and intensified very quickly.

[Supacell]

Supa,i see you are online,what do your latest obs think,will the storms get as far north as south york's or will i have to chase SE early in the morning.

 

just looked ^

 

I think S Yorkshire is pushing it, even if things do kick off. I am no expert though, but I haven't seen any forecasts showing storms that far north unfortunately.

[Allseasons-Si]

Should show some activity soon in the N BoB as that ppn is getting heavier

 

EDIT:one in the far NW BoB UH!

 

 

I think S Yorkshire is pushing it, even if things do kick off. I am no expert though, but I haven't seen any forecasts showing storms that far north unfortunately.

Cheers Supa,will have to travel then,i will see how things pan out first though.

[dusk]

I think this is going to be a massive bust if im honest. Only tomorrow will there be storms... maybe.

 

I'm, inclined to agree.

 

Here, it's very much like a spring evening : clear and chilly. And Sat24 shows nothing but storms fizzling out over Biscay.

[STORMGUY]

i think the south west is where the storms will start from theres the first lightning strike now on the blitzortung site about 150 or so miles west of brest.

[stainesbloke]

Well I'm still hopeful about storm hitting somewhere in the SE, think the main risk will be for more elevated stuff in the early hours with most of us being too far west for much surface based activity tomorrow daytime. Could of course be completely wrong! Looking forward to seeing what happens. Am so grateful for a warm, sunny day today.

[Thunderbolt_]

Unfortunately I am also thinking this will be a bust. 18z GFS models another eastward shift for tomorrow and there is nothing of note anywhere near the UK on radar. Those storms over Biscay are cracking off but they are hundreds of miles away. BBC are now out on there own showing storms over the east tomorrow afternoon, all other models have them out in the North Sea.

 

I remember that this is what people were saying at around midnight during last year's plume in July. Everyone thought it was going to be a bust, but then at around 01:00, everything just completely kicked off.

 

On top of that, the GFS 12z wasn't really suggesting that anything would get going on the South Coast until around 00:30-01:00, so there's still plenty of time yet.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Spikecollie]

I did a speed awareness course on Tuesday and can honestly say I learned a lot and it was actually quite engaging. First thoughts were "oh god 4 hours of my life watching a slideshow and being harangued" but they were very understanding of our perceived reasons for speeding and the course was laid out to make you question what your excuses were / are for exceeding the limit and to make you tackle them yourself.

And I'm a van driver too - there's me learnt :-O

And just to keep this on-topic - did someone mention something about storms later on tonight?

I'll start a speed thread, incorporating advanced driving stuff...I'm not a speed nag, but I've seen the results in A&E and in families...back to the storms! Nothing here and I'm thinking of bed.

[Gonzolio Martinez]

The latest V4 - it's creeping up.

[Speedway Slider]

Hmmmm, quite chilly out now here as well (Leicester) Just doesn't feel right..

Also, elevated storms v normal storms, any significant difference in the damage that they can do , lightning wise?

[Allseasons-Si]

That danm anoprop bugger off lol.

[Thunderbolt_]

Hmmmm, quite chilly out now here as well (Leicester) Just doesn't feel right..

Also, elevated storms v normal storms, any significant difference in the damage that they can do , lightning wise?

 

I think elevated storms tend to have less rain than surface-based storms (not too sure), so in theory there is a greater chance of lightning igniting a fire etc.

[Gordon Webb]

I think elevated storms tend to have less rain than surface-based storms (not too sure), so in theory there is a greater chance of lightning igniting a fire etc.

 

I think elevated storms also have more intercloud lightning as well

Edited June 4, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Mesoscale]

So what is the trigger for these storms? Even France is quiet right now.
Typical I could pick any other hobby avaliable in England yet I am drawn to the two things that elude us the most, Snow and Thunderstorms. haha

Edited June 4, 2015 by Mesoscale

[Daniel*]

Patience is virtue.