Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Crikey, I didn't think there was much progged for France for Thursday but the CAPE and LI over Limousin looks bang on for some t-storms with some nice heating! Could be an interesting flight into LIG on Thursday evening, we'll see...

 

This is my point you seen it?!?!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given that at this time the pattern is changing (only for a short while) with everything moving North if anything big does fire up it will die crossing the channel until more favorable conditions later on.. Leaving us with.. CRUD 

Edited June 1, 2015 by Surrey

[Mapantz]

Totally over analysing it, but oh well.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Totally over analysing it, but oh well.

Maybe you under analyse things

[Mapantz]

Maybe you under analyse things

Well, considering i cannot seen any evidence of your mcs, im sure i am. The ECM shows nothing of interest Thursday eve, perhaps some showery activity in the SE on Friday afternoon/evening.

To be worrying about a bust due to "crud" at this stage is like peeing in the wind.

Edited June 1, 2015 by Mapantz

[Harry]

To be fair, history tells us that overnight crud can be problematic. It does seem likely that numerous storms will fire over France on Thursday and drift northwards.

 

I'm not in fact inclined at this stage to believe any storms that are likely to fire will readily die, given that SBCAPE (that's before MUCAPE is considered) is pretty impressive throughout night hours up towards the SW approaches.

 

Where I am inclined to agree with Mapantz however is that given the yo-yo modelling at the moment, it might well be over analysis given we still aren't sure whether the heat and humidity will reach us in the first place.

Assuming it does, as I briefly referred to earlier, given the signfiicant instability present and in all likelihood fairly weak capping, I don't think crud will be as much of an issue as it often is.

 

All that said...let's just see if we get the Spanish Plume juice first 12z rolling out...will be interesting to compare it to the 12z of yesterday. 

Edited June 1, 2015 by Harry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well, considering i cannot seen any evidence of your mcs, im sure i am. The ECM shows nothing of interest Thursday eve, perhaps some showery activity in the SE on Friday afternoon/evening.

Still 4 days away, under analyse right there itsssssss a whind up!

[Mapantz]

I don't think crud will be as much of an issue as it often is.

Exactly! I'd hang on to the high-res data before contemplating the idea of this so-called crud.

[A.J]

To be fair, history tells us that overnight crud can be problematic. It does seem likely that numerous storms will fire over France on Thursday and drift northwards.

 

I'm not in fact inclined at this stage to believe any storms that are likely to fire will readily die, given that SBCAPE (that's before MUCAPE is considered) is pretty impressive throughout night hours up towards the SW approaches.

 

Where I am inclined to agree with Mapantz however is that given the yo-yo modelling at the moment, it might well be over analysis given we still aren't sure whether the heat and humidity will reach us in the first place.

Assuming it does, as I briefly referred to earlier, given the signfiicant instability present and in all likelihood fairly weak capping, I don't think crud will be as much of an issue as it often is.

 

All that said...let's just see if we get the Spanish Plume juice first 12z rolling out...will be interesting to compare it to the 12z of yesterday. 

just a quickie H....sbcape is pretty irrelevant as we'll be looking at elevated thunderstorms into early friday (if the latest model infers when it rolls out) so lookout for mixed layer cape & lift, mixed layer CIN, moisture convergence in the mid-levels (700-500hpa) and upper troughing in the airflow......for storm direction follow the 500hpa & 300hpa windflow

Edited June 1, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Convective]

12Z not looking too bad at all. Nice feed pumping up during Friday.

[Utahraptor]

I know it's still subject to change, but I couldn't help but notice the DLS values over Northern Ireland, where I am, and decent enough MLCAPE on the medium range NMM

seems like a good sign that its modelling a lot of convective rain

 

Elevated supercell potential? Or better still, MCS event?

I guess I can only dream at this relatively far (by tstorm standards) range... 4 days to go, let's hope the plume doesn't shift east again

[Mapantz]

12Z not looking too bad at all. Nice feed pumping up during Friday.

Yep.

It looks as though it drops back, slightly south and west.

All academic a the moment, of course, but I'd take that.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Exactly! I'd hang on to the high-res data before contemplating the idea of this so-called crud.

You've jinxed now

[Mapantz]

You've jinxed now

We'll be alright! 

 

Edit: My Netatmo forecast has just updated, i find it more accurate than BBC/MetO - Now it's jinxed!

Edited June 1, 2015 by Mapantz

[Harry]

just a quickie H....sbcape is pretty irrelevant as we'll be looking at elevated thunderstorms into early friday (if the latest model infers when it rolls out) so lookout for mixed layer cape & lift, mixed layer CIN, moisture convergence in the mid-levels (700-500hpa) and upper troughing in the airflow......for storm direction follow the 500hpa & 300hpa windflow

Oh yes indeed - the point I was making was that the projected presence of ludicrous SBCAPE (at 00z and 03z) in addition to MLCAPE suggests a highly unstable atmospheric profile from top to bottom, leading to an expectation that any storms have a good chance of persisting rather than pffffting out overseas.

Interestingly, and this is a query rather questioning you, why if high SBCAPE is progged would we only look for mid-level instability? Admittedly, during plumes we look towards mid-levels for our 'juice' given the channel presence (and because often SBCAPE often vanishes overnight) , but it's not unheard for I mports (again, not that we appear to be needing these in this instance) to remain surface based if conditions are conducive - based on what the charts are 'currently' indicating this is possible (amplifying severe risk I would suggest)??

Overjoyed by the 12z reverting to earlier predictions...waiting to see if the 18z follows suit and loses its storm killing tendencies

[Captain Shortwave]

The biggest concern for me is the refusal for the UKMO to back the American/Canadian models in properly blowing up this plume event and instead flattens the pattern before the continent heat can reach the UK. Still at the moment left with the option of 28C on Friday with a pretty spectacular breakdown or barely scraping 20C with a band of patchy rain moving south east. (Of course those numbers are purely from a local perspective but the rule apply elsewhere in the risk zone).

[Spikecollie]

This is my point you seen it?!?!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given that at this time the pattern is changing (only for a short while) with everything moving North if anything big does fire up it will die crossing the channel until more favorable conditions later on.. Leaving us with.. CRUD 

I really hope you all get something over here, but I promise if I do over there I'll take some photos and post them. Not getting to LIG until 2030 on Thursday evening, so plenty of time for storm development if there is any - ooh I'm getting all excited!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really is knife edge stuff this is!

Got a feeling this one will go right down to the wire.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes, having had a quick glance at 12z outputs, world of difference between GFS and UKMO-GM, so little room for optimism tbh.  UKM again showing no real amplification of ridge aloft to 'stall' upper (and surface) low to the west, whereas GFS has the trough digging more south.  UKM result is everything is pushed east at pace with no real push of moisture 'plume' from the south. 

 

Not good when UKM is against us lol.  Let's see what the ECM has to offer...

Luckily the ECM agrees with the GFS/GEM solution, so we still have the same model split as this morning.

[Harry]

Interesting that the BBC aren't sure what to make of it all either - they are plumping for 24-25C which to me is a bit of (sensible) cop out. In reality it looks like it'll either be 20C or 27-29C on Friday depending on which side of the fence you sit.

[NUT]

Just had a rumble here as a heavy burst of rain rolled through

[Harry]

Not sure about that, CS. It's in the middle. Better than UKM, sure, but still a quicker solution than GFS, and not seeing that push of warm, moist air from the south. Still plenty of time to go, but wouldn't bet against UKM at this range.

To see the susbtantial difference between ECM and GFS, open the Fri 12z outputs from both models in separate tabs and flick between the two. ECM has a east based risk, GFS west to east... UKM little risk at all.

GFS usually one step behind the euros with this type of setup, so expecting those eastward shifts over future outputs.

Hope not, of course...

Don't say that will be gutted if all goes East...despite the fact I know it's very possible and always has been! I'm sick of this crap, chilly, NW weather bring cloudy skies and cruddy torrential drizzle...I want to feel some heat and humidity and witness just one poxy AcCas turret

I'm buying a camcorder tomorrow night just on the off chance - the past couple of years we've had some awesome storms - July 2013 in particular had 4-5 hours of storms, which during the early peak of the storms was shooting out bolts every 2-3 seconds (think it was an active multi-cell setup)...blitzortung however did not depict this and I was slightly disbelieved last years double night time banker of 17th/18th July again came was but the vid on my eye phone isn't great quality - there any way I can upload it onto here do we know?

Edited June 1, 2015 by Harry

[Harry]

Lol at one AcCas turret.  I've booked Fri off anyway, so some optimism residing in me currently. 

Im working from home Friday, planning to start early JUST in case I need to witness something. I'm hoping that even if it all does slither East there might be merit in me dashing to Dymchurch hopefully to catch something. Time will tell!!

Here's a couple of pics/stills from the last couple of years to inspire hopefully some luck

[BlueHedgehog074]

Im working from home Friday, planning to start early JUST in case I need to witness something. I'm hoping that even if it all does slither East there might be merit in me dashing to Dymchurch hopefully to catch something. Time will tell!!

Here's a couple of pics/stills from the last couple of years to inspire hopefully some luck

See those pics that Harry has posted, UKMO? Amazing, aren't they. This is why you need to back the GFS on Friday with its thundery Low. Edited June 1, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Generalelectrix]

Evening@all

 

quote Spikecollie: " Could be an interesting flight into LIG on Thursday evening, we'll see..."

Heheh  dont forget you may need a barf bag, and please dont forget the camera, if that pans out the way I think then I would give a small fortune to be aboard that flight also.....

 

I am currently in Germany and a bit east, where  a Cape loaded but well capped atmosphere is forecast for the end of the week. once the cap gets bust (even regionally) then whambo. A scenario may develop like on the 13th of May where a F3 tornado which started in France tracked all the way through the Black Forest and ended close to Lake Constance, a track of 55 Km. Luckily over sparesly inhabited area, no casualties. Incredible for a tornado to move over mountainous terrain, and even if this is a bit off topic, I would like to post a piccie of the swathe of damage it caused which I made exclusively for you netweather community guys and girls:

 

 

This link shows an aerial photo of the same place, I was standing to the left of that small  undamaged looking "oasis" facing toward the lefthand bottom end of the pichture when

I took the photo:

 

 

http://www.sturmforum.ch/forum_uploads/inprivat/20150518_012330_Cyrill.jpg

 

Here is the link to two pics taken by a fellow chaser of the massive supercell which spawned the tornado, from the Black forest facing west toward France

 

http://i1212.photobucket.com/albums/cc450/sturmy92/11.5.%20-%2017.5.15%20u.a.%20Gewitter%20Tornadoschneise%20Feldberg%20077%202.jpg

 

http://i1212.photobucket.com/albums/cc450/sturmy92/11.5.%20-%2017.5.15%20u.a.%20Gewitter%20Tornadoschneise%20Feldberg%20176%202.jpg

 

Done a lot of chasing, not only in Europe but also in Canadas tornado alley Alberta and Saskatchewan while working there, but this anvil must be the outright most wicked looking supercell I have ever seen, somewhat scary. You could see it constantly flickering and the static on the AM radio was nearly drowning out the local station, meaning plenty hail. Was going to go chasing myself into the black forest but opted to stay in Constance and let it roll overhead, cause you dont want to be poking around in the middle of the dense woods at night with a tornadic supecell bearing down upon you, and only little winding gravel roads leading away to safety

For those who understand German, here the link to an analysis in the Swiss weather forum with plenty more pictures and mapping, the photos alone are worth looking at:

 

http://www.sturmforum.ch/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9427

 

Anyway, sorry I rambled on for so long off topic, but thought I would share this with the community here. Back on topic: there is talk of crud spreading across the Channel from the convective activity over France, Lukey (Surrey) posted this. I would say we wait till Wednesday or so and then have a peek at the charts regarding wind direction in the upper levels, possibly things will pan out ok, lets see..

 

Regards

 

Ralph

 

 

Edited June 1, 2015 by Generalelectrix

[Pat Butcher]

Evening@all

 

quote Spikecollie: " Could be an interesting flight into LIG on Thursday evening, we'll see..."

Heheh  dont forget you may need a barf bag, and please dont forget the camera, if that pans out the way I think then I would give a small fortune to be aboard that flight also.....

 

I am currently in Germany and a bit east, where  a Cape loaded but well capped atmosphere is forecast for the end of the week. once the cap gets bust (even regionally) then whambo. A scenario may develop like on the 13th of May where a F3 tornado which started in France tracked all the way through the Black Forest and ended close to Lake Constance, a track of 55 Km. Luckily over sparesly inhabited area, no casualties. Incredible for a tornado to move over mountainous terrain, and even if this is a bit off topic, I would like to post a piccie of the swathe of damage it caused which I made exclusively for you netweather community guys and girls:

 

P1010273.JPG

 

This link shows an aerial photo of the same place, I was standing to the left of that small  undamaged looking "oasis" facing toward the lefthand bottom end of the pichture when

I took the photo:

 

 

http://www.sturmforum.ch/forum_uploads/inprivat/20150518_012330_Cyrill.jpg

 

Here is the link to two pics taken by a fellow chaser of the massive supercell which spawned the tornado, from the Black forest facing west toward France

 

http://i1212.photobucket.com/albums/cc450/sturmy92/11.5.%20-%2017.5.15%20u.a.%20Gewitter%20Tornadoschneise%20Feldberg%20077%202.jpg

 

http://i1212.photobucket.com/albums/cc450/sturmy92/11.5.%20-%2017.5.15%20u.a.%20Gewitter%20Tornadoschneise%20Feldberg%20176%202.jpg

Really great post there, thanks Ralph. That aerial photo brings home the fact that as much as I'd love to witness a proper supercell, the prospect of that F3 roaring its way through my little terraced house is considerably less appealing!