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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 16 Discussion - CO/OK/TX

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Starting today in Garden City (Kansas) and only a short hop southwards and probably westwards to Baca County in Colorado.

 

Hoping for much better chance of Supercells today and NOT Line segments like yesterday, although the way this year is going will fully expect an MCS Upon arrival into Target area.

 

General Target will be Springfield down to Guymon for today

 

Paul S

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Don't think you're in too bad a position there in Elkhart. The highest chances of rotating storms is in the far SE of the expected risk area which takes you to just into the OK panhandle.

Couldn't believe there was even more rain in C OK last night - it is getting ridiculous now in the season of floods and soaking wet HP storms.

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Latest SPC update increases tornado risk to 5% in the area the team are currently sat in. Some weak storms are setting off to the west currently with clear air in the slight risk area. Fingers crossed to get something today.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

 

post-4523-0-85237300-1432498200_thumb.gi

 

...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...
STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A MIDLEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH. THE RESULT IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. INDEED...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN CO...WITH OTHER TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE
LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SERN
CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING. AS CELLS FORM OVER SERN CO AND CONTINUE EWD...SOME
COULD EVENTUALLY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO SWRN KS.

FOR AREA INTO THE TX S PLAINS...HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF
STORMS CAN FORM...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON WV.
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER S BASED ON THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. SEE FORTHCOMING MCD 742.

 

 

 

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It would be nice to see if the streaming is working now the team are on the move!

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Streaming now!
[quote

Looks like a nice storm your approaching :)

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Tornado warned as well now. Been showing a couple on and off for the best part of an hour!

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Poss touch down on that Lamar storm

 

MIDSCAR Tornado probe is on it

 

post-16960-0-69107200-1432503739_thumb.p

 

don't know what happened to my pic :fool:

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Very strong rotation with lowering on that stream.

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Very strong rotation with lowering on that stream.

Lovely isn't it

 

T on the ground wrapped in rain by the looks of it

 

mannaged to capture it before hand

 

post-16960-0-94498800-1432504778_thumb.p

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Ooh! That's a peach! Great on the stream.

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Bet there is some monster hail in there as well!

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Jason Cooley in the hail. lol

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LOOK @ Jason cooley's stream,,,,,ouch!!!

 

also looks like our team are driving into it,stay safe guys.

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It's interesting in that this supercell has broken away from the frontal line. It also looks like another is trying to do the same a bit further south nr Springfield

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Pretty active lightning in the anvil looking back at the storm from one of the streams, flickering away every few seconds.

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Wow, got some beautiful structure the supercell near Lamar looking at the MIDSCAR stream and pumping out some nice anvil crawlers ...

 

post-1052-0-10994700-1432508163_thumb.jp

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Should be a strong tornado right where the team are positioned. I reckon 4miles west of Granada

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Also need to keep an eye to the couple just to the south of Granada.

 

Edit just got tornado warned as I typed!

 

All those chasers need to watch their bums.

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WOW!!,look at that thing,spectacular.

 

post-16960-0-46404300-1432509096_thumb.p

 

our team are back online chaps :D

 

Dominator 2 to intercept the southern storm(Springfield).

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