June 2015 CET forecasts

[Relativistic]

Why would anyone want a freezing cold June?

No-one is asking for a sub-zero June

Seriously though, I just like months that have large negative temperature anomalies, whether those be Winter months or Summer months. Why? I don't know.

Edited June 3, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[Weather26]

Wow, it would take a decent warm spell just to get back to average from there.

So a cool first 12 days in spite of Friday's one day heatwave-If this was to stick into the second half of the month we would be in line for one of the lowest June averages for years-still a long way off i must stress!

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to the 3rd

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Yes a  very brief warm up before a generally cooler than average spell largely due to low minima..

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 4th

 

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.6C while maxima look like hitting 21C, so an increase to 13.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

12.9C to the 6th (12.0)

12.7C to the 7th (11.5)

12.5C to the 8th (11.0)

12.2C to the 9th (10.4)

12.2C to the 10th (11.5)

12.3C to the 11th (13.3)

12.3C to the 12th (12.2)

12.1C to the 13th (9.8]

11.9C to the 14th (10.1)

 

A chilly outlook and below average month already looking good. Even 12.2C to the 10th would be the 3rd coldest first 10 days of June in the last 25 years.

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 5th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited June 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Mmm we failed to achieve a max equivalent to the current mean today. Its turning into a significantly below average start to June here, means around 3-4 degrees below average mean, and no real warm up in the days ahead.

[IanR]

13.8, sadly. That mass of cold water in the Atlantic will probably ruin it.

 

looks like you are going to be correct about the atlantic afterall,    I had a bad feeling about that too

[reef]

Mmm we failed to achieve a max equivalent to the current mean today. Its turning into a significantly below average start to June here, means around 3-4 degrees below average mean, and no real warm up in the days ahead.

Its pretty much a continuation of what we had in May. Here in the east it has been around average overall with maxima above and minima below.

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 6th

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[Timmytour]

Interesting to see where this year ends up in variance of mean CET to last year.

By my calculations we are already running close to 1.5C..i believe, since 1660, there has only been 14 occurrences where the mean CET has varied by more than 1.5C  from the previous year. The last time this occurred was 2011 rebounding from the relative cold of 2010.  That was the first time in 89 years with a variance over 1.5C, when the average wait is about 24 years.

The previous occasion, 1922, was the last time a year got colder by over 1.5C from the previous year. Could we about to see a 93 year run come to an end? 1921 had also been the warmest year on record at the point, as is 2014.

 .  

 

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 7th

 

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 7.0C, while maxima look like hitting the low 16s, so a drop to 12.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

12.2C to the 9th (9.7)

12.1C to the 10th (11.2)

12.3C to the 11th (14.2)

12.7C to the 12th (17.1)

12.9C to the 13th (15.6)

13.0C to the 14th (14.4)

13.0C to the 15th (12.2)

12.9C to the 16th (12.8]

13.1C to the 17th (16.3)

 

Somewhere around 1C below average by mid month. While odds are in favour of a below average month overall, climbing to above average during the 2nd half of the month would be easily achieved.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 8th

 

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 9th

 

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 10th

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A minimum today of 6.4C, with maxima likely to reach the mid to high 21s, should leave the CET on 12.3C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS hast the CET at:

 

12.7C to the 12th (16.7)

12.9C to the 13th (14.8]

12.9C to the 14th (13.0)

12.7C to the 15th (10.2)

12.6C to the 16th (11.6)

12.8C to the 17th (14.9)

12.7C to the 18th (12.4)

12.8C to the 19th (13.3)

12.8C to the 20th (14.2)

 

Provided we are near 12.7C to the 15th, we'd need the 2nd half of the month to average over 16C to reach the 81-10 average of 14.5C. A 16C+ 2nd half of June has occurred in 11 out of the last 50 years, giving a roughly 20% chance of reaching average, or 9 out of the last 30, giving a 30% chance. With the downward corrections, the chances are lowered again. So probably still a 15-20% chance of reaching average.

[summer blizzard]

Which was the last year in which were below 13C to the 20th?

[Relativistic]

Which was the last year in which were below 13C to the 20th?

At a guess I would say 2012, though I don't know for certain. It was actually very cool until the last week, I remember the CET running well well below average for the majority of the month.

Edited June 11, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[The PIT]

Sunny sheffield on 12C not very impressive. Should be a bump up from today and tomorrow for to be cancelled out Saturday and Sunday.

[Scorcher]

12.1c to the 10th

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

 

That's pretty shocking really- I haven't paid too much attention to the CET so far this month. I expected it to be lower than average, but not that low!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Which was the last year in which were below 13C to the 20th?

At a guess I would say 2012, though I don't know for certain. It was actually very cool until the last week, I remember the CET running well well below average for the majority of the month.

June 2011 and June 2013 also gave 2012 a run for its money in being the 1st sub 13C June since 1991.  But in all 3 cases the chances of finishing below 13C were scuppered by timely hot spells.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[BornFromTheVoid]

Which was the last year in which were below 13C to the 20th?

 

Yeah, 2012 was the last one, at 12.6C to the 20th. The last year below 12.5C to the 20th was 1991, at 11.1C.

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 11th

 

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average