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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 4 - Drifting West to West Texas

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Very leisurely drive West today for a lazy lunch and get into a Hotel in West Texas to position for an Overnight MCS moving North from Mexico, not much else on the plate for today but hopefully focus on some lightning tonight.

 

Just waiting for that trough to move onshore

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Yeah, best bet for today, 4km NAM and GFS show storms spilling out of northern Mexico later forming quite a wide MCS which will push NE across western Texas and eastern New Mexico overnight - helped by a 500mb speed max moving NE out of Mexico interacting with plume moving north. Good opportunity for some night-time lightning photography ...

 

Hopefully this will clear out the way tomorrow to allow some storms to form over SW Texas.

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Not that my confidence in either the SPC or my own forecasting skills is to be relied on given recent events, I'm currently in Brady, TX and planning to head down to Junction, TX on the I10 for overnight. Hoping to catch the MCS show later but more importantly I'd like to be able to chase anything that develops beneath the main rain band Weds - but this is conditional on fine tuning based on RAP first thing in the morning.

Otherwise I still have a move North in mind on Thursday to the TX Panhandle ready for Fri/Sat activities.

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Hi Neil

 

Yep Junction should be handily placed, we are now on Flash Flood Watch overnight in the Eastern Permain Basin and have a 100% Storm risk from 11pm until 11am

 

Should be a good one for Lightning!

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Perhaps the ongoing MCS has compromised the expected MCS?

I am still expecting a few stronger cells today beneath the main rain band, but according to update may have to adjust a bit east from here.

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