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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 3 - Travel Day

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Leaving St Jo in about half an hour for a long drive to DFW, Then a much nicer drive down into target for tomorrow.

 

Some thoughts on the next 8 days for Tour 1 and the Start of Tour 2.

 

Got a decent handle on the next week. Leaving Misery today and will be chasing in Deep South Texas Tomorrow, after that maybe a marginal risk on Wednesday, set up and position day on Thursday then the Big Trough for Friday to Sunday. Hoping the EML Can make this a normal Outbreak of Dryline Tornado Supercells for Friday and follow a 2-3 day Outbreak across Central Oklahoma for Saturday and Iowa/Nebraska for Sunday. Then the drive back to DFW For Monday and change over the tours on Tuesday. Lets see in a weeks time how all this pans out! Looks Busy though and signs for the start of Tour 2 of a very active Pattern from the 19th May Onwards

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Hi Paul, I know that parts of NE Texas are flooded, but what is the situation further west regarding moisture? Is it still as dry as a bone and drought ridden? Hopefully no MCS's this weekend!

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Hi Ed

 

Its quite surreal actually, there is a distinct line around the Shamrock to Childress line where it is like the Amazon at the moment, further west there has been just about the right amount of rain where things look fine, green enough and enough water in creeks, have not quite made it into Colorado yet but guessing that is still semi drought ridden from photos I saw the other day.

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Hi Ed

 

Its quite surreal actually, there is a distinct line around the Shamrock to Childress line where it is like the Amazon at the moment, further west there has been just about the right amount of rain where things look fine, green enough and enough water in creeks, have not quite made it into Colorado yet but guessing that is still semi drought ridden from photos I saw the other day.

The vegetation dryline then - be interesting to see those storms fire along it come this weekend - Will supercells turn from LP to HP quite quickly I wonder.

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Hi Ed

 

Its quite surreal actually, there is a distinct line around the Shamrock to Childress line where it is like the Amazon at the moment, further west there has been just about the right amount of rain where things look fine, green enough and enough water in creeks, have not quite made it into Colorado yet but guessing that is still semi drought ridden from photos I saw the other day.

Denver had 4" snowfall over the weekend so it was a good job you stayed marginally in the warm sector. Up in Nebraska once place picked up 24" snow on Sunday.

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Hi Guys. Hope your super long drive is over soon. I too have transferred south to Buffalo, TX (taking a few back routes on the way) to play with anything that develops in S TX Tuesday. I agree Thurs onwards looking juicy at the moment - here's hoping.

I have a blog up and running, and I too got some footage of the small funnels in W KS on Saturday evening.

We may meet again.

 

www.neilweatherblog.wordpress.com

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Reports from yesterday suggest 3T's, with the latest hail of 2.5":

0000 250 LAUGHLIN AFB AUX FIELD MAVERICK TX 2886 10053

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Where are the team currently? If they are in Irving FW TX, then it may be worth dropping down to Austin and seeing where things go from there for a play this afternoon. Nothing significant expected but one has to travel that far south to get temps and DP anywhere near the 70's. No massive CAPE either but enough to trigger some storms off by 21Z. Who knows whether there is a chance of a weak funnel an any convergence zone with weak divergent upper and lower winds present.

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We are indeed at Irving ED, but not seeing anything substantial down by Austin ? To be honest today has gone down the crapper pretty fast by yup you guessed it a frickin MCS Again!

 

Plan is probably going to be having a leisurely drive towards Midland etc and hope to get some action from late evening or overnight storms.

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We are indeed at Irving ED, but not seeing anything substantial down by Austin ? To be honest today has gone down the crapper pretty fast by yup you guessed it a frickin MCS Again!

 

Plan is probably going to be having a leisurely drive towards Midland etc and hope to get some action from late evening or overnight storms.

Oops  I didn't make that clear -that was more a lunchtime rendezvous to  decide which direction to go in - west or south .Originally earlier today it looked like south was the better option but I guess that you have seen that that has crapped out now! So west is better. Who wants an omega block in late spring?

 

I can see a big Texan steak coming up as you move north before the next trough moves through towards end of the week? In fact timings wise thinking about changeover, it looks like a quieter spell early next week, then more active towards the end of next week again.

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Yep seems the changeover days are being kind to us, and yep Armadillo later this week looking likely

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Are any of the virgins up for the challenge lol? Either that or they could chew on a buffalo ball with Ian....

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Watch this space, we might have a lamb to the slaughter!

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Photo of the guys enjoying a lovely meal in the 2 Frogs Restaurant

post-24-0-89153900-1431536315_thumb.jpg

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