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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 2 Discussion - SD/NE/OK/TX/IO/MN

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Brutal start to the Tours but up and out at 8am with a target of E Nebraska and W Iowa finding that Triple Point and LP Area and hope some of these Supercells can ride that warm front, 5 hours drive to get into position and 2pm Initiation.

 

Will be streaming later hoping to get some Nebraska and Iowa Magic and actually be in target area In good time

 

Paul S

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Awesome! When I was out there with you I didn't get the chance to chase in Nebraska (little lie, we strayed briefly into Nebraska before heading back to intercept an awesome line at Concordia, KS).

Seems that Nebraska delivers stunning cells, with fantastic structure - not forgetting the twin wedges last year in Pilger, NE.

As ever stay safe and good luck...hoping there'll be a flurry of pics and vids from yesterday's storms.

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Nebraska was very good to us last year, fingers crossed she delivers again!

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The orange/red warning boxes on the map are working...they are driving away from what looks like an orange box right now!

Edit - box gone - presumably an error with the settings somewhere.

MD issued for the target zone, although as Paul pointed out initiation is expected quite early (as early as late morning US time according to SPC).

Fingers crossed they get there in time

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Isolated cell has dropped a strong tornado in South Dakota... damage looks quite severe, the small town of Mitchell (4,000 or so people) is in the firing line next..this could be awful!

 

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Great quality streaming guys, hope it holds up for you and you get the results you are looking for after such a long drive. Will watch again later as things kick off.

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It looks pretty messy out there both in set up and current obs.

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If I see another frickin MCS Mess these systems up this year I am going to scream!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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If I see another frickin MCS Mess these systems up this year I am going to scream!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It all looks rather unpleasant on the streaming and not fun to drive through. I guess the best place for something embedded will be on the NE IOWA Missouri border. Feel that frustration.

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Must be driving you chaps nuts - action is shifting NE at a rate of knots though you're not a million miles away now :D

Interestingly C/N TX gone MDT again :cray:

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Lunch break while we wait for the MCs to stop messing with us. Stream back soon.

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Hi Paul and the team - thanks for the exciting few hours last night. Lost contact and with no data stream headed straight for Colby to sit out the follow-up squall and watch the lightning. Got some nice footage of the funnel(s) we saw near Cheyenne Wells.

 

Today I managed to get across to N of Kansas City by early afternoon but by then it was clear the risk was being bombed out by another MCS spoiler,so bust my chase and am now heading south (currently Nevada, MO) to be in position for a structure chase in C TX tomorrow. I'd like to visit The Alamo on Tuesday maybe assuming the far south TX risk doesn't tempt me.
Might catch-up with you guys again in the week.

I see there's a beautiful supercell near Waco - bum!

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Very Bad day at the Office for me and the team and need a damn good slapping!

 

Sat near Carroll (IOWA) Pretty much all the day and never got suckered north as that first 1045am Tornado used up pretty much all the energy on the nose of the warm front, so sat and sat and sat, HRRR Backed up my thoughts with a second line of Convection firing and this would ride onto an ESE draped Warm Front which was untouched. Storms duly fired to our south but struggled to organise, so booked a Hotel at St Joseph and headed south on I29, all storms that passed us on their northwards journey looked like junk and of course once we were safely out of distance around 80 miles decided to go on a Tornadofest where we had just come from.

 

Forecast and understanding of the set-up A+

 

Chasing F-

 

Kicked a few walls when we got here and watched the 12 or so tornadoes this supercell put down flood onto social media.

 

Not a great day!

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Reports from yesterday suggest 18 T's and the largest hail reported was 2.75";

 

0130 275 LAKE CITY CALHOUN IA 4227 9473

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How frustrating. It never looked like those NE/ IA storms would produce - I guess you never know because as they moved NE the conditions supporting tornados improved. I was keeping an eye on the Waco storm - It looked impressive structurally on some cams, though some shasers got stuck in the middle of it - not a place to be recommended!

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All's not lost, a bit play across south Texas tomorrow with some big hail and perhaps some structure and good lightning photo ops. Wednesday possible severe threat over west/NW Texas, Thursday bit more uncertaiin.

 

But Friday and especially Saturday looking very good atm across southern/central Plains.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 

Saturday looks textbook higher-end severe with strong 500mb SWLly flow ahead of upper low/trough heading east over mountain west. Good moisture return building 3000j/kg+ CAPE across the Plains, lee low over high Plains backing those sfc winds:

 

post-1052-0-34720400-1431337564_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-92271500-1431337577_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-28213400-1431337605_thumb.gi

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Better timing for us on this side of the Atlantic to follow late at night at the weekend as well, Nick! End of the week looks good for some dryline activity as you say before the trough pushes through.

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