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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 1 - Discussion TX/OK/KS/CO

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Starting the day with Cgs raining down from crapvection firing from an early impulse from a Vort Max moving in from West Texas is never a good thing, but hey ho we need this crap to move North East and fast. Will be leaving for a target of SW Kansas and Oklahoma Panhandle around 10am with a lunch in Woodward, will refine from from there but hopeful of some supercell action if the atmosphere can recover in time this afternoon. Don't like the Veer Back Veer profiles on the Hodo's and mode looks once again to be HP Quite quickly after storm initiation, 2nd better target would be NE Of the Low Pressure Centre but not going to even attempt that drive to NW Kansas.

 

The lack of Cap this year and convective overturning really has subdued what should have been a borderline High Risk down to Moderate and now Enhanced, lets hope for a few surprises!

 

Tom will post the briefing now

 

Regards

 

Paul

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Mod risk removed for today...last few days the MCS have been spitting out Theta-E air all over the place and the atmosphere just won't recover. Very dissapointing as today had huge potential all week. Right until 24 hours ago.

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Corking background CGs there! Fingers crossed for you all today :)

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Still a 10% chance of a tornado where the Moderate risk was, the Moderate risk was in place mainly for extensive severe hail but in the latest observations this doesn't look likely,  presently ..Keep the faith, the atmosphere will establish itself and treat you to some spectacular supercells late afternoon..!!

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Seems like the more data you look at today the harder it gets to pick a target! Good luck. I'm pretty confident the conditions will come together, although it will probably happen quite quickly.

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Streaming now, stopping in 15 miles at the Red River border to show you guys the extent of the flooding, its horrible over here this year and those Mossies are about 2 foot long

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Crapvection? Mess? I'm still yet to see so much as a flash or a distant fart rumble this year...:cray:

Good luck chaps and chapettes - looking forward to some live streaming later :D

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It's been a while, but I'm back and I gift you with Jo speak for todays chase.

 

Unfortunatly the sky looks Squibby :(

 

This is not a good sign. It means that there is much cloud and mosture in the atmosphere.

The sky is messy and moist with little heating to clear up the mess.

I really hope it warms up and shifts this squib.

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It's been a while, but I'm back and I gift you with Jo speak for todays chase.

 

Unfortunatly the sky looks Squibby :(

 

This is not a good sign. It means that there is much cloud and mosture in the atmosphere.

The sky is messy and moist with little heating to clear up the mess.

I really hope it warms up and shifts this squib.

 

Clearer skies not far away to the west on recent visible satellite, as can be seen on the live stream too now:

 

post-1052-0-54038800-1431193625_thumb.gi

 

HRRR clears the current crapvection east over next few hours with clearer skies spreading from the west and 00z Sun (6pm CDT) breaks out some cells over SW Kansas also winds are backed across SW Kansas than further south over the OK/TX Panhandles. Only downside is the CAPE is not so good up here:

 

10m wind/significant tornado:

post-1052-0-87029900-1431194198_thumb.gi

 

SLP/precip:

post-1052-0-86892800-1431194219_thumb.gi

 

CAPE

post-1052-0-03915400-1431194319_thumb.gi

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Heading North into Kansas at the moment, stream will go wobbly soon due to lack of titnternet in the Okie Panhandle.

 

Making good progress though and still hopefull

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Thanks Paul.

Starting to get better. This is good news. Would be great for Tour One to taste the magic on their first day!

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Moisture nosing in to Liberal, KS now. I'd like to get somewhere near Syracuse, KS. Bit of a trek but should be there by 5pm local (4pm MDT) and can adjust if need be.

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wishing well to my old friend on these tours..wish  you well Paul...miss  these   days   MEGA...OLD times..GO GET THEM MATE...will be watching throughout!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.currently you have the moisture being pinched between the cold pool line....if it can  go  advect north  we are looking at a good chance of initiation that would would occur later..good steep lapse rates ...sticking to the western side to  North side  to capitalism on these soundings..this would be my bet....just my theory..still learning  mode.....my tank would head  further North/WQest

 

 

PS Do Not come  To  MO..Its Cxxx Hole :yahoo: 

 

Colorado majic...i just might favour today..to  take then risk if i had the spare GAS

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Tornado watch where the team are heading:

 

post-1052-0-33461600-1431200779_thumb.gi

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     EASTERN COLORADO
     WESTERN KANSAS
     FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
     900 PM MDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINES OF SUSTAINED STORMS
   WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TO MOVE /
   DEVELOP GRADUALLY NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   MID-EVENING.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   AKRON COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST OF LIBERAL KANSAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

 

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I ditched the crud in SW OK and have motored up to in Meade looking at a developing Cu field to my West.
Latest mesoscale pushing a plume of higher dps up between the DL and the OFB. SRHs will be high just to the east of the synoptic low due in OK Panhandle by 23Z.

Hoping for a discrete supercell and tornados possible.

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my option im afraid is ito Colorado...this is where you will see Isolated supercells

every where-else is mish mash

for structure this would be my choice

my tank if fuel would be there for pics

Unfortunate my USC  wife is paranoid of my death, to chase..so i cant allot,,but i study instead

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A new post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!b am I seeing things...M OD    for south  OLK

cant believe it MD south OK

surely..IF   this will be discreet H[p   if  so

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Heading straight for Dorothy and Toto country...skies are looking pretty good too...loads of Cb seedlings all lined up nicely :D

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That looks like Dorothy's house, no no no no!!! 

 

Next it'll be the sodding little house on the prairie.  :help:

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That looks like Dorothy's house, no no no no!!! 

 

Next it'll be the sodding little house on the prairie.  :help:

 

Fond memories of visiting them with Michael Fish back in 2008? :D Think I've got some photos of us all stood outside the little house somewhere I can dig out ...

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Only just realised SPC gone back to MDT in the DFW/North TX area...just where the team were this morning :cray:

The reason for the increased risk is primarily for tornadoes - few strong tornadoes expected

Fingers crossed the area they're heading for will produce!

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