Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty a warm up of sorts around the 12th looks likely now. But for how long is open to question, As this is 'likely' to be transient between low pressure systems.

 

I'm sure Knockers already secretly dusting the Deck Chair off..

Edited May 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows warm / very warm air from southern Europe spreading up across the UK early next week with widespread low 20's celsius, at least for the southern half of the uk and closer to 24/25c for the s/se. With high pressure to the south, the best of the weather next week would be across more southern parts with warm sunny spells, more unsettled and less warm further northwest.

[Paul]

Latest synoptic analysis from Nick - cool, windy and unsettled for now, but signs of a warm-up for a time at least next week..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6626;sess=

[legritter]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows warm / very warm air from southern Europe spreading up across the UK early next week with widespread low 20's celsius, at least for the southern half of the uk and closer to 24/25c for the s/se. With high pressure to the south, the best of the weather next week would be across more southern parts with warm sunny spells, more unsettled and less warm further northwest.

Would certainly take what some of the charts are hinting at .

but looks like areas of low pressure will drift in off the Atlantic but at this range it could i feel be hard to call .

May can be so variable atleast we do have summer lets hope for a good one .

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows fine and increasingly warm weather early next week, widely high teens c on Monday and then low 20's celsius and closer to 24/25c across the east/se next Tuesday, from midweek it gradually becomes cooler and more unsettled from the northwest but it doesn't stay unsettled for long.

I'm just happy to see a much warmer spell firming up for the first half of next week.

Edited May 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

The Ecm 12z shows a nw/se split next week.

 

as do the noaa anomaly charts.

[049balt]

There are some signs that the jet is heading north during the final third of this month.

[BlueHedgehog074]

as do the noaa anomaly charts.

Additionally has back up from both the GFS/ECMWF 500mb mean chart and also from the NAEFS 500mb charts with the higher than average heights towards the South-East and lower than average heights towards the North-West. Does seem to illustrate quite well the idea of South-Eastern areas likely to see more in the way of brighter and generally warmer weather (especially towards the far South East) with High Pressure being more influential. And with North-Western areas staying more changeable and unsettled. Certainly some good confidence from the anomaly charts regarding this.

(The 6 to 10 day 500mb means from both the NOAA and ECMWF/GFS, and also the NAEFS 192 and 240 hour 500mb charts, included as examples).

[Milhouse]

Sunday looking much the better day of the coming weekend. Amazing that sucessive days can look so different

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO not as keen on the high as GFS

 

 

GFS has temperatures into the high teens / low 20's for large parts of England and Wales

 

 

[johnholmes]

Additionally has back up from both the GFS/ECMWF 500mb mean chart and also from the NAEFS 500mb charts with the higher than average heights towards the South-East and lower than average heights towards the North-West. Does seem to illustrate quite well the idea of South-Eastern areas likely to see more in the way of brighter and generally warmer weather (especially towards the far South East) with High Pressure being more influential. And with North-Western areas staying more changeable and unsettled. Certainly some good confidence from the anomaly charts regarding this.

(The 6 to 10 day 500mb means from both the NOAA and ECMWF/GFS, and also the NAEFS 192 and 240 hour 500mb charts, included as examples).

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

 

quite good agreement then from the models most likely to be less likely to show rapid changes from one day to the next.

So a split NW-SE does look the most likely and the source of the upper air will be the guide to how warm or cold. To some extent how unsettled or not as well?

[Frank Trough]

both the GEM and UKMO are now starting to errode the high pressure influence this evening. GFS still backing it at present. Sunday still looking ok but not as good as before. As i said earlier, chasing the high pressure seems to have been going on some time and we aren't really getting anywhere. The atlantic lows and heights to the north seem to be underestimated initially, then resolved as we get nearer.

 

I hope the ECM backs the GFS! i suspect not, though.

 

*edit* - naturally the ECM goes with the GFS! i suspect the ECM is the best case scenario we could squeeze out of this.

Edited May 5, 2015 by Certain kind of fool

[summer blizzard]

Seems to me the polar vortex split by the stratospheric warming event seems to have had an implication on the pressure that we have currently. We are in a quandary situation here of who we believe more and I suspect the ensembles will be the overriding signal.

 

Looks to me like the strong sub-tropical Jet we saw over the US in April (classic Nino pattern) has since weakened and backed west. Instead of sending cut-off lows it has allowed for a more dominant Polar Jet which as you'd expect in the UK looks to be producing a more normal NW/SE split. 

[049balt]

Looks to me like the strong sub-tropical Jet we saw over the US in April (classic Nino pattern) has since weakened and backed west. Instead of sending cut-off lows it has allowed for a more dominant Polar Jet which as you'd expect in the UK looks to be producing a more normal NW/SE split. 

Where ever it is coming from it has steered huge amounts of rain over Ireland over the last seven days, 500% of normal in the West.

[Milhouse]

The ECM 12z would bring 2 days of warm/very warm conditions with a brief but impressive surge of heat pushing northwards.

 

[Frosty.]

For the first time this spring I'm using the word HOT to describe next Tuesday on this evenings Ecm 12z op run. Temperatures could reach the high 20's celsius if this chart comes off, it shows 564 dam into the south +15 T850 hPa..Epic charts. The Ecm looks much better from Sunday until the middle of next week, the run ends cool, windy and unsettled but next Tuesday could be a cracker, hot and sunny in the south and very warm further north.

[Summer Sun]

The first proper heat of the season potentially on the way next week from ECM

 

 

Fresher air slowly moves in from the west beyond this but the south and SE holds onto the warmth longest with it taking till day 10 before the fresher air reaches the SE

 

[Scorcher]

That chart from the ECM op for Tuesday is an absolute cracker if it's warmth you're after- I imagine it could produce some of the highest temperatures for the first half of May for quite some time if it comes off. With relatively high pressure for most of the UK and a very warm southerly I imagine lots of places would be enjoying warm/hot sunshine.

 

It looks like a brief affair at the moment but perhaps it could be extended as time goes on.

[knocker]

I'm not getting too carried away with the HOT concept just yet. The GEFs anomaly has the upper ridge slipping SE quicker than a ferret down a rabbit hole so I'm a tad wary. See what the ECM has to say.

Charts weatherbell

Edited May 5, 2015 by knocker

[BlueHedgehog074]

quite good agreement then from the models most likely to be less likely to show rapid changes from one day to the next.

So a split NW-SE does look the most likely and the source of the upper air will be the guide to how warm or cold. To some extent how unsettled or not as well?

I suppose, to be fair, that's probably not always easy to judge. I remember you saying in the past these types of charts aren't great for picking out specific surface features, but handy for looking at the overall upper pressure patterns. As an example, the anomaly charts could be showing some fairly high anomalies to the South of the UK. But it might not necessarily rule out the fact that the operational models could be showing the odd runner/secondary surface Low tracking over Southern areas within the same period providing those parts with some brief unsettled weather. In fact, it's probably why just focusing on the 500mb anomalies on those mean charts, without considering what the flow at the 500mb level is doing, could give a misleading picture (and something that you've mentioned was always important). Especially since the 500mb flow contour line can be useful for picking out where the ridges and troughs could be. And also what type of flow the UK can expect.

[damianslaw]

We've seen notable changes over the past 24 hours, gone is the suggestion of heights holding the atlantic at bay come Saturday and instead all models now show another shallow low trough feature move across the country. Where we go afterwards is the question? Don't be surprised to see secondary features/troughs enter the fray from the SW putting bay to any pronounced southerly airflow. It does look a predominantly unsettled outlook with the atlantic gaining the upper hand. I can't help but wonder what impact the cold SST's over the east atlantic just off the shores of western Ireland are having, probably helping to create a deeper trough feature than would be expected at this time of year thanks to greater temp gradient., but also possibly helping create mini southerly plume effects on a localised scale to the SE only, the NW remaining firmly in the grip of the cooler wetter scenario.

 

 

I type this listening to the radio going on about the dry and record breaking sunny April, I do hope we are not seeing yet another May similar to those that followed on from a very good April, think 1987, 2007 and 2011, all of which delivered preety unsettled May's with no sustained dry sunny spell.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks ,I notice the beautiful plume early next week ...from the Ecm....

[Summer Sun]

ECM ens pretty much in line with this mornings a fairly settled start to next week especially for the south more changeable further north

 

 

Then from Thursday the high moves away allowing a west to north westerly flow to develop with fresher air gradually returning after what could be a rather warm start next week for some

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Evening folks ,I notice the beautiful plume early next week ...from the Ecm....

 

Yes short lived warm plume. Overall low pressure would seem to be the dominating influence for some time to come....

[knocker]

Essentially it's a battle between the SE movement of the mid Atlantic trough and similar with the European ridge. Both the GEFS and ECM have the trough winning the battle after the flirtation with the ridge.

Chart weatherbell