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Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

With any real pressure build not occurring until day 9 (and how long it stays is still not known) i remain cautious. Without a proper pattern change over the US, i see little reason as to why we will remove the N/S westerly pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Decent cross model support for height rises to our East/South-East as we head into the first week of June,although quite a cool unsettled spell to come before then.

 

ecm..post-2839-0-97520000-1432550255_thumb.pn  gefs..post-2839-0-61616900-1432550269_thumb.pn

 

naefs..post-2839-0-02523600-1432550281_thumb.pn

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With any real pressure build not occurring until day 9 (and how long it stays is still not known) i remain cautious. Without a proper pattern change over the US, i see little reason as to why we will remove the N/S westerly pattern.

Very much agree SB. As in Winter it's always easy to talk up what look like positive signs, but when at least a week and more away 'cautious optimism' is as much as I'm allowing myself to enjoy. I've dusted off far too many sledges and barbecues at this range over the years :oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

With any real pressure build not occurring until day 9 (and how long it stays is still not known) i remain cautious. Without a proper pattern change over the US, i see little reason as to why we will remove the N/S westerly pattern.

 

I thought pattern was changing by getting rid of the strong Alaskan ridge and weakening the Canadian vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

The eventual evolution to better sustained mid latitude ridging and pressure rising over Europe and Scandinavia....

Tamara, superb over view of the situation. Many thanks. Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove long quote.
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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

Tamara,

 

Is it too simplistic to say low AAM = static global patterns?

 

Can you suggest any further reading where I can improve my knowledge of the various teleconnections (you speak about in your post), how they knit together etc?

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Whilst few would deny it's interesting to look longer term, especially when there are prospects of either winter cold or summer warmth, I'm going to stick with the pattern out to 168hrs and assume (for the avoidance of further disappointment) everything thereafter still has limited chances of verifying. What I see across the next 6 or 7 days doesn't exactly fill me with the joys of spring, with things looking to become increasingly unsettled, as Atlantic lows and their associated frontal troughs cue up to bowl in.

 

Hopefully one of these will eventually prove to be the trigger for rising pressure as we move into June and summer proper, but there's a fair bit of weather (most of it not very inspiring), to get through first.

Edited by coldcomfort
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

High pressure taking charge over the UK on the GFS 12z. We would be looking to the east for any potential heat to affect the UK.

 

Rtavn2221.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Whilst few would deny it's interesting to look longer term, especially when there are prospects of either winter cold or summer warmth, I'm going to stick with the pattern out to 168hrs and assume (for the avoidance of further disappointment) everything thereafter still has limited chances of verifying. What I see across the next 6 or 7 days doesn't exactly fill me with the joys of spring, with things looking to become increasingly unsettled, as Atlantic lows and their associated frontal troughs cue up to bowl in.

 

Hopefully one of these will eventually prove to be the trigger for rising pressure as we move into June and summer proper, but there's a fair bit of weather (most of it not very inspiring), to get through first.

That is the beauty of this forum, we can look over the horizon and hopefully spot something before the crowd, fortune favours the risk takers, my money is on a flaming June!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Much nicer Gfs 12z through low res with high pressure taking control, I firmly believe a major pattern change is not far away. The met office update continues to firm up on a change to warm anticyclonic conditions through early / mid June and the chance of the south becoming very warm and humid as continental air wafts north. I have high hopes that most of June will bring above average temperatures and sunshine. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Ooo Baby, here comes Summer.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html


Much nicer Gfs 12z through low res with high pressure taking control, I firmly believe a major pattern change is not far away. The met office update continues to firm up on a change to warm anticyclonic conditions through early / mid June and the chance of the south becoming very warm and humid as continental air wafts north. I have high hopes that most of June will bring above average temperatures and sunshine. :)

More indications that Summer is on the way Frosty.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows the change most of us are waiting for in just over a weeks time, the south is the first to improve and then gradually the fine and warmer weather starts to push north, the south of England would be heading for low to mid 20's celsius later next week.. so the pattern change is now within the ecm range. Let's hope we are on course for a complete change from relentless cool / unsettled Atlantic dross to much Warmer anticyclonic bliss.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

I would realy love to see what the Met office are saying come too fruition .

Yes they have a good track record ,and charts are showing high pressure come early June but low pressure at the end of this month and some rather wet and cool conditions also in the mix .

Its the location of any high pressure which needs to fall into place so i am going to wait till we have some firmer agreement from our main models .

Patern change possible but many twists and variations could happen ,so heres fingers crossed ,cheers all  :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Still good agreement on the 3rd/4th being the time when high pressure moves in, no coincidence that just prior to this we see the collapse of the Alaskan ridge which allows low heights to our north west to ease somewhat and the result in the Azores high becoming a more prominent feature. 

It looks like a UK/Scandinavia based high so an easterly drift will develop in the south quite quickly I guess as the Azores high and Russian ridges connect, the detail here is key in the conditions at the surface, it could be very warm/hot or it could be cloudier and cooler (especially in the east).

 

Beyond this, the long rangers still point to a Scandi high/ Iberian low scenario keeps cropping up (CFS/ECM/Metoffice), this could produce an interesting scenario with a dominant weather type involving bands of thundery rain pushing up from the continent which I personally will admit is the type I like most during the summer :)

 

Still a long way to go.

ECM day 10 mean

EDM1-240.GIF?25-0

 

CFS week 3/4 ens anomaly

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Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

Also support from the 8 to 14 Day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA this evening to see a warmer and less disturbed spell developing with higher than average heights developing over, and to the East/North-East of, the UK. It continues to head in the right direction for those wanting to see some Summer-like conditions. A flow at the 500mb height from the South-West, so shouldn't feel quite as cool as some of these North-Westerly flows (particularly for the North) have delivered this month. Compared to the 6 to 10 day version of the chart, the UK becomes less influenced from the troughing and low heights to the North-West, although the best of the settled and warmest conditions would probably be towards the South and East. It's true, though, that the exact placement of High Pressure systems will have an affect on the distribution of the sunniest and warmest conditions across the British Isles.

post-10703-0-30761600-1432589559_thumb.jpost-10703-0-68569000-1432589544_thumb.j

Perhaps could be worth getting the hampers, benches, mats and food out to have a picnic should the encouraging support for UK and Europe height rises keep continuing.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The latest EC32 update for your delectation

 

Starting on the June 2nd as this is about when the pattern change begins. The anomaly still has the LP SE of Greenland, vortex N. Canada, strong ridging Alaska and eastern Europe with Azores ridging SW of the UK. Surface analysis NW Pm still influential with temps below average.

 

But by June 5th quite a change with HP over the Pole and to the east of the UK connecting to general area of HP to the SW, and much weakening of the LP. Surface analysis similar to this with warmer air creeping in towards above average temps.

 

By the 12th main area of HP to the SW with weakish heights Scandinavia so still HP influencing the UK with temps a couple of degrees above average.

 

This situation remains until the 26th with the trough Greenland making a brief appearance pushing SE from Greenland on the 18th. Temps above average.

 

Summary.

 

Another week of unsettled weather before HP takes over although there is no sustained build up of heights to the east with the AZ HP being the dominate feature and the possibility of little incursions of the trough to the NW but perhaps one shouldn't make too much of this. So June looks pretty good with temps a little above average but certainly no heat wave. There also remains the possibility of developments to the S/SE later in the month but no clear signal for this.

 

In the shorter term the GFS is going for showery inclement day on Friday with low north of Scotland and a NW over the UK before the next frontal system on Sunday which has the potential to be quite damp. After that the HP to the east holds off all comers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well im optimistic viewing the recent 8-14 day anomaly charts.

attachicon.gif814day.03b.gif (21/5)

attachicon.gif814day.03c.gif (23/5)

attachicon.gif814day.03d.gif (25/5)

looks to me like there should be a gradual pressure rise to our south and east after this week, with the most unsettled weather being in the north but pretty nice in the south. still no sign of support for the gfs's pressure rise over the whole uk, but the anomaly charts appear to be gradually moving in the right direction.

 

and the latest..

post-2797-0-95176900-1432622164_thumb.gi

... that puts me 'on board', as the gradual evolution of these charts do now suggest support for something settled and warm/hot/summery later next week. :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Mushy, A nice warm spell on the way with temps shown in the mid 20's by the back end of next week.

 

npsh500.pngh850t850eu.pngukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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