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Roger J Smith

May 2015 CET forecasts

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CET May averages and other statistics

 

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

 

Warmest months

 

1. 15.1 (1833) ... by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months
2. 13.9 (1848)
3. 13.8 (1788, 1758)
5. 13.7 (1808)

6. 13.6 (1992, 1727)

 

Averages

 

12.2 ... 2014 CET

12.1 ...

12.0 ...

 

11.9 ... 2001-2014 average

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ...

11.5 ...

11.4 ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2014 average of all data

11.1 ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ...

 

10.7 ... 1659-1700 average

 

10.4 ... 2013 CET

 

Coldest Months

 

9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

 

 

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

 

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day 30th of April 30 to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

 

 

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11.5 Please.

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Below is the May CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

LpDAiJb.png

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 8.5 and 9.5C. The average May following an April within that range is 11.5C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives an  May CET of 11.5C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.62C per century. Following this trend gives an May CET of 11.7C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.09C per century. Following this trend gives an May CET of 11.8C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.40C per century. Following this trend gives an May CET of 12.1C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +1.57C per century. Following this trend gives an May CET of 12.0C.

 

Last year, the 30 year average for May hit 11.8C (11.78C) for the first time on record. To take the 30 year average to 11.9C for the first time, a CET of 13.0C or higher is needed, while taking it back to 11.7C requires 9.9C or less.

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Rest in pieces 'spring' 2015!...  15.5C  :(  Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2013.

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Difficult to judge, a lot of long range models have consistently predicted that May would be a cool month, that said they have been completely wrong with April (Average and wet prediction). So at this point I will wait to see how the cooler spell pans out over the coming days, if this breaks down into a warmer pattern again then I might go for something warm, if not I will back the long rangers.

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Right then, it is a 12.0C from me, a little above average.

Despite a cold few days to start, the trend is for a milder south-westerly regime to take charge, add to that I do think we will see our first proper summer-like spell occur during the middle to latter part of the month, this signalled by the monthly models.

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I'm going for 13C once the cold start is out of the way.

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The 06z GFS would have the CET around 9.5C to the 6th, 1.1C below the 81-10 average and 0.3C below the 61-90 average to that date.

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11.6 for me please

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Looking cool for the first 10 days.  However, I have come to learn that calling low often bites you as we rarely come in below average these days.  I will call 12.0C

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12.2c

 

a cool start but warming up from the 2nd full week of May

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Think I'll wait for Craig's guess....just for guidance purposes ☀

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