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BornFromTheVoid

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

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Seeing as nobody has started this topic...

 

The melt season is here, generally lasting from March/April to September each year. After previous slight improvements in the minima in both 2013 and 2014 after the record low of 2012, many AGW "sceptics" see this as a sign of an Arctic sea ice recovery, while others see it as short term variation on a long term trend.

Most extent and area measures have this years max as the lowest on record, while volume sits about 6th lowest and highest since 2010.

 

 

So, how will this season pan out? A continued reversion to the mean or return to the long term downward trend?

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Seeing as nobody has started this topic...

 

The melt season is here, generally lasting from March/April to September each year. After previous slight improvements in the minima in both 2013 and 2014 after the record low of 2012, many AGW "sceptics" see this as a sign of an Arctic sea ice recovery, while others see it as short term variation on a long term trend.

Most extent and area measures have this years max as the lowest on record, while volume sits about 6th lowest and highest since 2010.

 

 

So, how will this season pan out? A continued reversion to the mean or return to the long term downward trend?

 

I think volume is more important than any short term late season growth (which we didn't see this year)

 

We are of course far more dependent on favorable weather for ice retention then cf 1980s

 

I'm pitching bottom 10 but no more, time will tell.

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I , again, am going for an 'average' weather year' for the melt season as I dare not expect another year of low transport/cloudy/cool conditions over the season?

 

Should we see a 3rd year of those conditions I would honestly be wondering if something had changed up there? 

 

As it is our 'Crackopalypse conditioned ice' has never seen an 'average year' but I fear that it would not do very well under average export/average melt conditions knowing that smaller floes travel faster and larger surface area to volume ratio of ice means faster melt out of floes ( compared to large floes with lower surface area to volume ratios).

 

We all want another rebound year but when we saw a record year in 07' it was followed by two rebound years followed by a record low volume in 2010

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The current 1 day NSIDC extent is 13.999 million km2. This is the earliest date on record to dip below 14 million km2, beating 2006 by 2 days.

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Arctic ice returns to 2006 defying all doom mongers screenhunter_8451-apr-08-07-26.gif?w=476Unless we we have a southerly wind  thickness will return to the same levels as 2006 myi-52006vs52015.gif?w=480&h=480

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Perhaps a closer look is worthwhile, on a reasonably sized chart showing the true picture:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3188035

 

And only when 'Ice returns to 1976 levels', not 2006 will I for one be even considering breathing a sigh of relief Keith.

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And that is a pertinent point right there Shugg's, The ice in 06' had a component of paleocryistic ice ( ice over 10yrs old) in thick floes ( like the ones the yearly Russian ice station was put on top of?) where as this year we have none but a healthy slop of Prof Barbers 'rotten Ice' ( now an official ice type in the Canadian Ice Service maps)........

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And that is a pertinent point right there Shugg's, The ice in 06' had a component of paleocryistic ice ( ice over 10yrs old) in thick floes ( like the ones the yearly Russian ice station was put on top of?) where as this year we have none but a healthy slop of Prof Barbers 'rotten Ice' ( now an official ice type in the Canadian Ice Service maps)........

 

Another rise yesterday by 17k , thats a 45k total rise last two days 

 

Too early to open refreeze thread ?

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Arctic ice returns to 2006 defying all doom mongers screenhunter_8451-apr-08-07-26.gif?w=476Unless we we have a southerly wind  thickness will return to the same levels as 2006 myi-52006vs52015.gif?w=480&h=480

why are the years 2007 - 2013 blanked out on the graph??

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why are the years 2007 - 2013 blanked out on the graph??

 

Because he was looking at comparison to 10 yrs ago and effectively saying no change re extent.

 

To me this doesn't mean we are  back to the 1980s  or volume is great it just shows 2015 (extent) is similar to levels 10 yrs ago

 

You can play around with all the years here.

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

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Not liking the current mashing of Beaufort? With the prospect of warm water ingress through Bering it makes me wonder how long before those floes become impacted by surrounding warmth?

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Not liking the current mashing of Beaufort? With the prospect of warm water ingress through Bering it makes me wonder how long before those floes become impacted by surrounding warmth?

 

Temperatures in the high arctic seem to be rising rapidly

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

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Temperatures in the high arctic seem to be rising rapidly

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Strong recovery of Arctic ice NSIDC are about to release this chart showing strong recovery of Arctic ice volume and thickness over the last 3yrs this charts shows a large increase in Arcticage_coverage_time_series_83_15_w_labels23rd and 4th year ice.

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Perhaps a closer look is worthwhile, on a reasonably sized chart showing the true picture:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3188035

 

And only when 'Ice returns to 1976 levels', not 2006 will I for one be even considering breathing a sigh of relief Keith.

There appears to be something of a 30-40 year cycle to Arctic ice. Larsen completed the first ever 1 season Northwest Passage (and only 3rd ever NWP) in just 87 days in 1944. The NWP was again possible in a single season in 2010,11,12. 2013 was dicey; one boat got stuck and had to overwinter, several turned around . 2014 was basically a disaster, with all but 4 attempts failed or stuck to overwinter or rescued by Canadian icebreakers. Essay NWP. This suggests the Arctic ice is recovering from its natural cyclic low a few years back. On an annual basis, details are weather driven as 2007 (multiyear ice blown out Framm Strait) and 2012 (cyclone led to minimum area) show.

Arctic ice (and polar bear recovery after the 1970’s hunting moratorium) are more massive blows to the CAGW meme. The focus on lowest (not) Arctic winter max will come back to haunt CAGW in September concerning the summer minimum just before Paris. Multiyear ice almost guarantees that. Something to look forward to.

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A rise of 7,000 sqkms yesterday not usual to see even minimal rises so late into the start of the melt season

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

Stew

 

I cannot pick up your graph from this site. It says I havn't got sufficient access.

 

However, I looked on sunshine hours and they too show a strange flatlining in the rate of melting.  

 

Looking at other seasons I cannot see anything to parallel it. If it goes on another day or maybe two, we will have more ice for the day than even last year, inspite of the fact that last year we started the melt season with approx 1000sq kil more.

 

Everyone expected that the late forming Barents strait ice would have melted very rapidly, but it seems to be hanging on?

 

 

MIA

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CPOM Sea Ice Report

Report Date: 17-April-2015

Although Arctic sea ice set a record this year for its lowest ever winter extent, it was on average 25cm thicker than in 2013 when CryoSat recorded its lowest winter volume.

 

The latest measurements also show that sea ice around Svalbard, 1300 miles from the North Pole, is today only a metre thick - approximately half what it was in the winter of 2011 just after CryoSat was launched. The thinner ice around Svalbard coincides with a warming of the surrounding Barents Sea.

 

We've already seen the impact of this change in ocean conditions on the Svalbard's Austfonna ice cap where glaciers have speeded up at an unprecidented rate, and the rapid retreat of sea ice in this sector of the Arctic is almost certainly down to the same thing.

 

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

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Stew

 

I cannot pick up your graph from this site. It says I havn't got sufficient access.

 

However, I looked on sunshine hours and they too show a strange flatlining in the rate of melting.  

 

Looking at other seasons I cannot see anything to parallel it. If it goes on another day or maybe two, we will have more ice for the day than even last year, inspite of the fact that last year we started the melt season with approx 1000sq kil more.

 

Everyone expected that the late forming Barents strait ice would have melted very rapidly, but it seems to be hanging on?

 

 

MIA

 

 

 

 

In the autumn  my daughter Aurora Storm said the SO2 from last years rift volcano in Iceland was going under the radar and  may have an effect this spring in the upper atmosphere reflecting sunlight and thus giving us a cool spring and early summer in the northern hemisphere. Is this maybe the start?

 

 

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Knocker,

 

I have just found out how to access your site. 

I agree it is very good.

 

But I cannot understand your narrative.

 

I asked for the sea thickness levels more or less ENE from Svalbaard. (It was actually 79.7N and 30.4E) and it showed perfectly normal thickness levels compared to the previous 5 years.(It even had 2 readings between 3.5 and 4 meters! which was much higher than anything else seen in this period) ..  I also tried several other locations around this area with similar results.

 

Not saying it is right or wrong, but have i misread the data and the way to use it? 

 

MIA

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Northern Lights

 

Maybe, something odd seems to be happening right now, but is it just a blip?

Time will tell.

 

MIA 

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Funny Neven had a brief word on the CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps that I posted last night.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/04/cryosat-sea-ice-thickness-maps.html

 

MIA

I'm not sure what you mean, also this my first look at the site, but as far as I can see you click on the map and read off the time series. Will have a closer look later. Just had a quick look at your Lat and Long and it seems fine to me.

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This gets very interesting... I was epecting BFTV to report but here goes as he may not be around.

 

The trend for ice extent has been flat again for the last 2 days. As I suggested  we are now above 2014 for ice extent and are now rapidly closing in on 2011.

 

The Ice thickness has improved considerably in the last 3 years so that the volume of ice is looking quite reasonable.

 

What is causing this lack of melt at the surface as both the Barents and Bering Sea look to have only shallow ice following a brief freeze period?

 

It should be melting fast at this stage according to other recent years. 

 

Anyone any good at reading world weather maps?

 

MIA

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This gets very interesting... I was epecting BFTV to report but here goes as he may not be around.

 

The trend for ice extent has been flat again for the last 2 days. As I suggested  we are now above 2014 for ice extent and are now rapidly closing in on 2011.

 

The Ice thickness has improved considerably in the last 3 years so that the volume of ice is looking quite reasonable.

 

What is causing this lack of melt at the surface as both the Barents and Bering Sea look to have only shallow ice following a brief freeze period?

 

It should be melting fast at this stage according to other recent years. 

 

Anyone any good at reading world weather maps?

 

MIA

 

In terms of the Bering sea, in the last few weeks, its been the longest period with winds coming from the Arctic with some cold air hence melting here has barely changed. 

 

In terms of the Barents sea, all depends on wind direction really, wind direction will be turning Northerly again which may increase extent slightly but looks like will result ice exiting through the fram stright. BFTV mentioned this on Neven's forum and it does look like a west based NAO will happen so it will be interesting how this will affect the ice thicknesses, it will help to shift some of that thicker ice away from Beaufort but with milder air, it could also fragment it and we may also start seeing open water appearing here like we did in 2008/12 especially if this set up persists or we getting persistent off shore winds in this area.

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If it's of interest the 12z chart

Courtesy weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-84941300-1429480846_thumb.p

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