Summer 2015

[cheese]

If high pressure had moved a little further east during July 2013 it would have transformed a very good month into an exceptional one. For all its fine and very warm weather it just lacked a notable hot spell that would have really capped it off. Hopefully this year will be the one to get us the first 35c+ day or widespread 30c+ temps since 2006. June 27th 2011 and July 22nd 2013 have come closest.

Don't forget 1 August 2013.. reached 30C quite widely, reaching 31C in Leeds and 30C in York & Manchester. In Leeds we've only reached 30C twice since July 2006 (August 2013 and June 2011) which is very poor going. Between 1995 and 2006 we reached it pretty much every year. Hopefully the past few years have reversed the terrible summers of 2007-2012.

 

Edited April 26, 2015 by cheese

[h2005__uk__]

Don't forget 1 August 2013.. reached 30C quite widely, reaching 31C in Leeds and 30C in York & Manchester. In Leeds we've only reached 30C twice since July 2006 (August 2013 and June 2011) which is very poor going. Between 1995 and 2006 we reached it pretty much every year. Hopefully the past few years have reversed the terrible summers of 2007-2012.

 

 

Where did you go on the weatheronline.co.uk website to get that map?

[Milhouse]

It was an excellent month overall! Even after the main breakdown on the 23rd, it remained very warm with temperatures still in the mid-twenties, which is still very reasonable. The prolonged heat wave of that month was one thing, but the extremely thundery end to it made it a wonderful summer month. The 23rd and the 29th saw some brilliant storms.

 

I'd definately take that month again!

 

And the good thing was that it had warmth for almost everyone at some point. Despite some short cool spells with low cloud for some.

[Captain Shortwave]

todays update

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Above average heights over Europe with the likelihood of the jet running north east through the northern half of the UK.

Generally above average rainfall away from the south east. Temperatures near or a little above normal.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

High pressure could be more influential in this month, with low pressure to the south west of the UK, this could bring quite a bit of thundery rain up to southern areas, whilst the north is drier. Temperatures in general a little above average.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Higher chance again of high pressure dominating the pattern over the UK, temperatures a little above average and rainfall in general below normal. Again the risk of rain pushing up from the continent with the pattern being cooler and wetter than average over there.

[Captain Shortwave]

Today's update

June

height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Strong positive heights to the north east, this could be a very warm month, temperatures slightly to well above normal. Rainfall is mixed but generally a little below normal, this could be reflected in the distribution of thundery downpours though with low pressure occasionally pushing in from the Atlantic

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

The heights here are a little further south and west this month, so generally a drier than average month with temperatures again above normal.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

This is strong Euro high territory, this would bring very warm conditions to England and Wales along with below or even well below average rainfall, the north and west could be plagued by Atlantic systems from time to time.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

The Met model output, link below, to me, appears to suggest about average, or a bit either side of average, for rainfall and temperature. Nothing on their model outputs to suggest either a dire summer or a blazing hot dry one.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[Captain Shortwave]

The Met model output, link below, to me, appears to suggest about average, or a bit either side of average, for rainfall and temperature. Nothing on their model outputs to suggest either a dire summer or a blazing hot dry one.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Looking at the height and temperature profiles, it would suggest low pressure dominating in the Atlantic with high pressure over Scandinavia

 with north west Europe stuck between the two. I must admit this does to agree back up the CFS to a degree with the general consensus of low pressure sitting west of the UK with heights nearby at times. 

[damianslaw]

I wonder what influence the colder than average SST's over the east atlantic are likely to have on patterns this summer. Could be a case of any atlantic air this summer being cooler than normal, so lets hope we don't see too much of a sustained westerly pattern.

[Captain Shortwave]

Didn't have enough time yesterday so just a quick overview of yesterdays update.

June - Slightly below normal heights over the UK and the north sea with an Atlantic ridge - rainfall slightly above normal, most notable in the north east and temperatures near normal.

July - below normal height in the central Atlantic and the UK, this leading to very unsettled conditions with temperatures around normal and rainfall above normal, perhaps well above in places.

August - Deep low anomaly just to the west/north west of the UK, temperatures near normal and surprisingly rainfall a little below normal, but I suspect there would be plenty of rain or showers around.

 

 

As for today - well chrome has screwed up for some reason so I can only really give a description.

June - High pressure to the north east giving fine and warm conditions for most with below average rainfall.

July - Similar to June but the Atlantic trough edges in and gives above average rainfall, still warmer than average so the chance for some thundery outbreaks at times.

August - Low pressure over central Europe with the UK in a generally northerly flow, this gives slightly below average temperatures, but it is fairly dry.

[cheese]

Where did you go on the weatheronline.co.uk website to get that map?

Sorry, I never responded to this.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk

[Costa Del Fal]

I really dont believe sunspot numbers can have such a major effect especially in a short space of time. Surely we should be looking at teleconnections on Earth such as ENSO etc. 

[Costa Del Fal]

That, snow cover over northern Russia, qbo, pdo, glaam index, solar activity as well, mjo, Arctic state, North Atlantic ssts and stratosphere.

Indeed all that combined although some a lot more influenctial than others. Just going on sunspot numbers is not going to go very far. I'm fairly confident of another decent summer ahead.

[Weather-history]

Stuart markham seems to think we'll have a cool wet summer because of low sunspot activity now. Think his statement in my opinion is incorrect now as the cfs doesn't support what he says at all.

By the way folks does anyone think the qbo will have an impact on this summer as it has done in the past?

Seriously, putting faith in the CFS to me is akin have faith in hitting a 180 on a spinning dartboard.

[Evening thunder]

Stuart markham seems to think we'll have a cool wet summer because of low sunspot activity now. Think his statement in my opinion is incorrect now as the cfs doesn't support what he says at all.

By the way folks does anyone think the qbo will have an impact on this summer as it has done in the past?

 

There's also the fact that 1995 was during a solar minima... and 2003/2006 occurred on the declining limb of the solar cycle like we will be this summer (2006 was quite near the minima).

[h2005__uk__]

Going to be slightly bullish on this but I can see a cool but dry summer overall. Bit like 1993 and 1977.

 

Is that based on a hunch or something more? There seems to be mixed and contradictory signals coming from the facts at the moment - such as the solar cycle issue which is counteracted by 1995, 2003 and 2006!

[Don]

Going to be slightly bullish on this but I can see a cool but dry summer overall. Bit like 1993 and 1977.

 

 

That would suit me just fine....

[damianslaw]

Anyone have any info on current atlantic SST values. When I last looked in March we had a marked cold pool / SST values over east atlantic off irish coast, I doubt values have warmed too much in the past 2 months.

 

I'd be interested to hear people's views on what impact such cool SST values could have on conditions this summer -do we have any similar analogues to compare too. I would expect cool SST's in this part of the atlantic would help inhibit a marked trough feature thanks to a marked temp gradient, warmer SST's would help increase likelihood of stronger heights..

 

We could see a summer with a marked longwave trough just to our south west/west but stronger heights to our north east - end result could be one with marked plume events but relatively shortlived before the trough anchors itself over the country but slow moving against the block to the NE these fizzling in situ as we see heights build in from the SW before the next low/trough enters the fray. It could mean a rather warm summer especially in the SE, but nothing spectacular but more dissapointingly a wet one, potentially very wet.. Hope I'm wrong, I'll be keeping an eye on trends over the next few weeks, if such a pattern manifests itself as forecast to do so over the next couple of weeks, it could be a pattern we don't get out of, but lots of time for speculation, and rarely does the dominating summer pattern set in until around the solstice, a cool wet start to summer can be a misnomer. One notable aspect of the weather of recent years has been a tendency for the atlantic to lock itself into a similar vein for lengthy periods of time with little variance in overall patterns. Winters 13/14 and 14/15 saw a very static pattern, and recent summers also have been very static, little variance, autumns have been the same, its only been spring when we have seen more varied fayre, but to be expected given it is the most variable season for weather when the atlantic is at its most quietest.

Edited May 7, 2015 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Some early thought's from the weather outlook for the summer

 

The general picture the models suggest is for a mixed and close to average summer. Temperatures over the three month period as a whole are more likely to be above than below average.

 

Based on climatology and the data from seasonal models the weather prospects for summer 2015 are not looking great if you are hoping for it be dry and settled. There is some evidence pointing towards a higher chance of very warm and thundery spells being mixed with wet and much cooler ones. If this happened the three month period of the summer could end up quite close to average, but within these months there would be a lot of variation.

 

The full summer forecast from TWO will be issued later this month

[Evening thunder]

Sounds reasonable to me as someone that's into my weather. 

 

Hopefully there would be enough warm sunny spells mixed in there though.

[weatherguru14]

I often watch the bbc  forecast on a  evening and they give a  long range weather outlook. Why did John Hammond mention the word heatwave in the broadcast? those looking for a  heatwave will be disappointed or something along those lines blah blah blah.

Gives the wrong impression and is misleading that warmer  weather may happen, in the nearness of time..such is the weather in the uk. we could have  months of  the jet stream being stuck  to the south. Just refrain from using the word "heatwave" when there is no inclination of one. for the foreseeable future.

[William of Walworth]

Hello all.

 

Just emerging from hibernation -- I rarely contribute on these forums between October and April, because only May to September (aka the fetival season!) really interests me. I appreciate others are different.

 

But ...

 

Just the annual general request from me, which I make every year. In Model Output thread particularly, but also anywhere,  can people please try and avoid getting too prematurely/enthusiasticly into 'writeoff' mode when synoptic prospects for the forthcoming ten days look average/indifferent/even rubbish**??

 

(**for fans of warmth and mostly dry and sunshine and High Pressure influenced [note emphasis] conditions, that is!)

 

Reasons : obvious!

 

I'm mildly concerned about conditions for the late May Bank Holiday weekend right now, but as we all know, changes in synoptic detail are constant and will continue to be ...

[Summer Sun]

Accuweather's summer forecast is out

 

Summer will lack any long-lasting heat waves across northwestern Europe, while parts of southern and eastern Europe will feel the heat. This heat will also trigger rounds of strong thunderstorms from Poland and Czech Republic into Belarus and Ukraine. Typical summer heat will be felt from eastern Spain into southern France and Italy, while beneficial rains will bring occasional cooling to western Spain and Portugal.

 

 

 

Following a mild spring, temperatures in the United Kingdom and Ireland will be more seasonable during the summer months of June, July and August. A trough in the upper levels over the eastern Atlantic combined with cool ocean temperatures will limit extreme temperatures from building over the region from May into early July. Some glimpses of summer heat will still occur, but extreme heat will be short-lived, limiting the threat of any heat waves. In fact, areas from Ireland into western Scotland are expected to experience below-normal temperatures overall during the summer months.

 

Farther south, heat will also be kept in check from northern France into Belgium, Netherlands and western Germany. While these areas will not be immune to a few hot summer days, most of the summer will feature days closer to normal.

Normal high temperatures in the middle of summer range from near 21 C (70 F) in London to 24 C (75 F) around Paris and Berlin.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-europe-summer-forecast-uk-heat-storms/46618935

Edited May 14, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Jon Somerset]

Well that could be worse.

[cheese]

How can I trust their forecast when they can't even get the averages right? Normal high temp for London in July is 23.5C, for Paris it's 25.2C and Berlin 23.7C. 21C is the normal high temp for Leeds in July.

 

Anyway, their forecast is for average.. which suits me just fine.

Edited May 14, 2015 by cheese

[William of Walworth]

A week to ten days (call me greedy!) of 21C and settled, would suit me far better than two days of 27C followed by a major washout ... just a general comment there.