Summer 2015

[MP-R]

2013 was a better summer for me.. the western side of the uk  2013 was the better of  the summers. 2014 was better for the eastern part of the UK I believe,could be wrong.. June  2013 was nice.. It stated off wet last year and was often cloudy.

 

If anything I'd say June 2013 favoured the west, July 2013 favoured everyone, and August 2013 favoured the east (though it wasn't bad here in the southwest either). From what I gather, June 2014 gave more consistently good weather to the west than the east, though this changed in July with more widespread sun and heat. August, I think, would have been dire for the majority after the first week, though fortunately I wasn't here for a lot of it. I have distinct memories of sunbathing in the hot sun on the 13th or 14th of June while seeing rainy snapchat stories of the Queen's parade in Horseguards Parade in London at the same time.

 

2011 for me was just bland and boring. June had to be the worst month, though the hot spells at the very start and very finish were enjoyable. July and August then produced a lot of usable weather here though never overly warm except the end of July/early August or sunny.

[Richard2901]

Spring 2014 was a bland, homogenous season in a bland, homogenous year. How it ended up so warm with so little actual warm weather to enjoy I'll never know.

 

Sums up my thoughts on 2014 as well. Very poor year with little real warmth just lots of average days with grey skies and very mild nights. No cold at all.

 

Spring was the worst of the century to date. Lots of murky foggy weather and the dullest May for a long time.

 

Another repellant feature of the year from hell, that had nothing going for it, was the exceptionally bad weekend weather with weekends consistently seeing significantly worse weather than weekdays from March through to September.

 

Summer 2014 was not good. Mixed at best. It was in no way comparable to summer 2013 - the only good summer in recent years. 2nd half of June was atrocious here with grey overcast day in day out resulting in the 7th dullest June on record -  not much sunnier than June 2012. August was wetter than any summer month between 2007 and 2012 - the wettest since 1963 in fact with only 1986 having a colder 2nd half in the last 50 years. July was simply not good enough to make up for that.

[Costa Del Fal]

Sums up my thoughts on 2014 as well. Very poor year with little real warmth just lots of average days with grey skies and very mild nights. No cold at all.

Spring was the worst of the century to date. Lots of murky foggy weather and the dullest May for a long time.

Another repellant feature of the year from hell, that had nothing going for it, was the exceptionally bad weekend weather with weekends consistently seeing significantly worse weather than weekdays from March through to September.

Summer 2014 was not good. Mixed at best. It was in no way comparable to summer 2013 - the only good summer in recent years. 2nd half of June was atrocious here with grey overcast day in day out resulting in the 7th dullest June on record - not much sunnier than June 2012. August was wetter than any summer month between 2007 and 2012 - the wettest since 1963 in fact with only 1986 having a colder 2nd half in the last 50 years. July was simply not good enough to make up for that.

Other than that it was ok? Lol Edited April 13, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[cheese]

Aberdeen's climate is really bad anyway so I don't see why it matters. Better to just move somewhere else.

[Summer of 95]

2014 was definitely the better one here. June and July were probably the best pair of months since July/August 1995. 2013 was an average summer to me, it had 10 days of warmth in July and one hot day on the first of August. In the 90s that would have seemed normal, it only seemed good because of the absolute rubbish between 2007 and 2012.

2014 would have been right up there with a half decent August. That month has been a constant letdown in the 2000s, in the last 10 years it has averaged barely one day above 25C.

[damianslaw]

Comparing summer 13 and 14, not much difference overall here. June 2013 was a cool month with a fair bit of rain, but July 2013 was excellent best summer month since July 2006 here, August 13 I can't recall much...

 

June 14 was much milder than June 2013 with plenty of dry sunny weather. July 2014 was very good but not quite as good as July 2013. August 2014 was preety woeful very cool cloudy and wet.

 

Overdue a decent August.

[Milhouse]

I recall a horrible wet muggy spell at the start of July 2012 where the back garden remained sodden for ages, it was that humid and damp. Then it turned much cooler and it wasnt until the final week that summer arrived.

[Captain Shortwave]

I'd say that August 2012 was better here, in my opinion. Yes it was wetter than August 2013, but it had quite a lot of days with maximas in the low twenties and a few very heavy thunderstorms. August 2013 only really had that burst of very hot weather on the 1st and 2nd, but after that nothing really stands out. I don't recall any thunderstorms in that month and it also seemed fairly cloudy, from what I remember.

August 2012 was a mixed month which came out near normal, but with plenty of showers and a couple of short very warm spells. But it was decent overall. August 2013 saw us stuck in to stubborn pattern of high pressure sitting just south west of the UK resulting in near normal temperatures but a situation where we couldn't develop any very warm/hot weather or any conditions good enough for some decent convective activity. The word bland comes to mind when thinking of August 2013.

That said lets not repeat August 2014 this year. Terrible month.

[Captain Shortwave]

Indeed, considering it is mid-April I might decide to try and build a summer forecast using the CFS monthly data (This time I will use the 06z data each day for a level of consistency).

So starting today

June

500mb pressure anomaly

Rainfall anomaly

Temperature

 

Low heights just to the west or south west of the UK, heights over Eastern and north east Europe with a general southerly component to the wind direction.

This is an unsettled and warm set up, with potential for some pretty potent convective activity. Given this set up I would suggest an above average chance of a plume set up occurring which could bring some heat and thunderstorms to many. 

 

July

Pressure anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Heights just west of the UK in this month, this will tend to be a drier than average month, warm in the north and west, but around normal or even a tad below in eastern and southern counties due to an unfavourable wind direction.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

This would suggest that the Azores high will set up to the south or south west of the UK, so a mixed westerly pattern with the south drier than normal and the north generally wetter than normal. Temperatures close to or a little above average. The word bland could be used here I think.

 

Hopefully I can keep this up until mid-May when I will have a crack at the summer overall.

[damianslaw]

Indeed, considering it is mid-April I might decide to try and build a summer forecast using the CFS monthly data (This time I will use the 06z data each day for a level of consistency).

So starting today

June

500mb pressure anomaly

June height 1604.png

Rainfall anomaly

June rainfall 1604.png

Temperature

June temp 1604.png

 

Low heights just to the west or south west of the UK, heights over Eastern and north east Europe with a general southerly component to the wind direction.

This is an unsettled and warm set up, with potential for some pretty potent convective activity. Given this set up I would suggest an above average chance of a plume set up occurring which could bring some heat and thunderstorms to many. 

 

July

Pressure anomaly

July height 1604.png

Rainfall

July rain 1604.png

Temperature

July temp 1604.png

 

Heights just west of the UK in this month, this will tend to be a drier than average month, warm in the north and west, but around normal or even a tad below in eastern and southern counties due to an unfavourable wind direction.

 

August

Height anomaly

August height 1604.png

Rainfall

August rain 1604.png

Temperature

August temp 1604.png

 

This would suggest that the Azores high will set up to the south or south west of the UK, so a mixed westerly pattern with the south drier than normal and the north generally wetter than normal. Temperatures close to or a little above average. The word bland could be used here I think.

 

Hopefully I can keep this up until mid-May when I will have a crack at the summer overall.

 

 

It would end up being quite an interesting weather synoptic wise with 3 warm months with very different types of weather, wet in June possibly very thundery with southwesterly southerlies, drier in July winds from N to E direction, more typical changeable August with westerlies.

 

Who knows what might happen.

[Captain Shortwave]

Remember it is the CFS, so take the individual runs with a huge pinch of salt, my aim here is to see if we can get some consistent consensus on how things will pan out for each month.

So today's (which actually is the 16th 06z, yesterdays was the 15th so a day behind according to meteociel).

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

temperature

 

Ridge just East of the UK, this would be a dry pattern with temperatures above or even well above normal. This would be a BBQ month. Drier than normal for most though a few patches on there suggest the scatter in rainfall, caused most likely by any thundery outbreaks we would get.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

July sees a breakdown probably occurring early in the month with a pretty wet westerly pattern setting in. Temperatures near normal in the south, but above in the north.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

Pretty westerly dominated month with near normal temperatures and rainfall for most. 

 

So again June looks warm but today has a more high pressure bias, July is wetter and cooler than the previous run and August is similar in it's rather average picture.

[Captain Shortwave]

Today's update

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Unsettled month with above average rainfall. With heights to the east of the UK, this could offer some warmer weather at times, but generally near normal temperatures.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

A fine and settled month with high pressure close to the UK, temperatures above normal everywhere and rainfall below normal. A good summer month if this came off.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

In August high pressure still is the dominant force but placed further east. Temperatures above or even well above average. Rainfall is mixed which would suggest thundery outbreaks are possible at times. 

 

Overall on this update summer would start slow but would have a dry and sunny July with warm temperatures followed by a very warm or even hot and humid August with thundery showers at times. Would bank that.

[Guest]

Hi yes if that came off I guess we'd have an average june, but a july like 2013 and an august like 1997. Id take that any day :-) and as everyone keeps saying we are long overdue a decent august.

I have noticed a pattern that when we have a decent april (this one certainly shaping up that way) the summers that follow are either very good (1949, 1984, 1995 and 2003 are examples) or indeed very bad (1987, 2002, 2007 and 2011). I know past performance isnt a guide to future performance, but this year could be a summer to remember for either the wrong or right reasons, perhaps?

[Interitus]

Today's update

June

Height anomaly

june height 1804.png

Rainfall

June rain 1804.png

Temperature

June temp 1804.png

 

Unsettled month with above average rainfall. With heights to the east of the UK, this could offer some warmer weather at times, but generally near normal temperatures.

 

July

Height anomaly

July height 1804.png

Rainfall

July rain 1804.png

Temperature

July temp 1804.png

 

A fine and settled month with high pressure close to the UK, temperatures above normal everywhere and rainfall below normal. A good summer month if this came off.

 

August

Height anomaly

August height 1804.png

Rainfall

August rain 1804.png

Temperature

August temp 1804.png

In August high pressure still is the dominant force but placed further east. Temperatures above or even well above average. Rainfall is mixed which would suggest thundery outbreaks are possible at times. 

 

Overall on this update summer would start slow but would have a dry and sunny July with warm temperatures followed by a very warm or even hot and humid August with thundery showers at times. Would bank that.

 

The height anomaly charts are all 850mb temperature anomaly charts?

[Captain Shortwave]

The height anomaly charts are all 850mb temperature anomaly charts?

Hmm, not sure how that happened. Hopefully this will not be the case today

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Likelihood of high pressure being north of the UK with low pressure close to the south west of the UK. This would bring unsettled weather with above average rainfall in the south, drier with above average temperatures in the north, temperatures near normal in the south.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

Low pressure further north this month, but again an unsettled month. temperatures near normal for most and rainfall above normal, wettest in the north and west.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

Strong ridge to the east of the UK this month, so above average temperatures for all. Rainfall is variable so the precipitation could be more convection based. A decent month overall.

 

As for yesterday, here were the height anomalies as I can't fix my previous post, June, July, August

 

Edited April 19, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

WSI's forecast for May and into summer

 

WSI Europe: April Pattern to Persist into May

 

Summer to be Cool/Wet Across Western and Southern Europe

 

April 20, 2015

 

WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures in the UK and western Europe for the May-July period, with above-normal temperatures continuing across Scandinavia and eastern Europe. A wet and windy period is expected across western Europe as well, with dry and calmer conditions setting up across eastern Europe, western Russia, and Scandinavia.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford,“We have had a bit of a pattern change in April relative to previous months. The semi-permanent low pressure in western Europe has been replaced by mild high pressure, while the northerly winds to the east of the high pressure has resulted in a relatively cool month across parts of eastern and southeastern Europe. The latest data suggests this pattern will rule the day again in May. However, as we head into summer, we continue to expect the pattern to reverse again with a generally cool and wet summer expected across parts of western/southern Europe. Meanwhile, a warm and dry summer is expected across Scandinavia, eastern/southeastern Europe, and western Russia.â€

 

In May, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland* – Cooler than normal west, warmer east
Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal, except Iberia

 

In June, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

In July, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-april-pattern-to-persist-into-may

Edited April 20, 2015 by Summer Sun

[h2005__uk__]

Oh dear, not a great forecast. How accurate have previous WFI forecasts been?

There can still be very warm spells in cool summers though - I think even 2012 reached 30c in the south east. How much cooler than average was summer 2012 in the end?

[Captain Shortwave]

Today's update

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Oh dear, Greenland heights present, wets for most of the UK. Temperatures near normal on here, cooler in the south.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rain

Temperature

 

A fine and settled month, dry for all and warmest in the north and west due to the alignment of heights.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rain

Temperature

Slightly above average heights to the north and north east, temperatures look a little above average with rainfall variable. So again the chance of some thundery outbreaks.

 

JMA seasonal was out today.

May - Cool and mixed with a trough to our north east and Atlantic heights. 

June - Cool and dry with the Atlantic ridge closer to the UK.

July - Westerly based with near normal temperatures and rainfall.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Oh dear, not a great forecast. How accurate have previous WFI forecasts been?

There can still be very warm spells in cool summers though - I think even 2012 reached 30c in the south east. How much cooler than average was summer 2012 in the end?

 

The spring forecast this back in February can be found here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82341-spring-2015/?p=3176624

 

For March, April and May they forecast slightly below average temperatures, though they did also suggest a dry spring for most locations

 

I'm trying to find previous summer forecasts from them but since the website update all old stuff has vanished

[terrier]

Just Been looking at mark vogans latest video on this summer. He was looking at the models and he seems pretty confident of a cool wet summer ahead. Just hope the models and himself are wide of the mark.

[Evening thunder]

WSI's forecast for May and into summer

 

WSI Europe: April Pattern to Persist into May

 

Summer to be Cool/Wet Across Western and Southern Europe

 

 

The April pattern doesn't look like persisting into May for us.. even by their forecast? To get their cooler than average prediction for May goes against that headline..

[Frank Trough]

The April pattern doesn't look like persisting into May for us.. even by their forecast? To get their cooler than average prediction for May goes against that headline..

 

I thought the same thing! the next couple of weeks look fairly horrific (if you're a fan of being outdoors without a coat) and April has been almost exclusively excellent. Last year excepted May has been an awful little month in recent years and to be honest, looking at the way things are setting up, you could quite easily make a case to expect a fairly prolonged wet, cool spell to write off a decent portion of the month.

 

What worries me most for summer is that Mushy and SP1986 haven't written it off yet.....

[sundog]

This month has been our summer, hope everyone enjoyed it lol.

[Captain Shortwave]

Todays CFS update

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Upper ridge centred East of the UK with a trough near or just west of the UK. Winds generally from the south west would be the likely result. Rainfall is near normal except for the north west where it is above. Temperatures generally a little above average which is to be expected by this pattern,

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Above average heights to the East, north and north west of the UK. This probably places low pressure further south so a mix of cool and unsettled weather, but with the chance of a few much warmer spells with thundery rain at times. This is reflected with the near normal temperatures and above average rainfall predictions.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Higher than normal heights to the East of the UK, looks a dry a pleasantly warm month here.

[MP-R]

I thought the same thing! the next couple of weeks look fairly horrific (if you're a fan of being outdoors without a coat) and April has been almost exclusively excellent. Last year excepted May has been an awful little month in recent years and to be honest, looking at the way things are setting up, you could quite easily make a case to expect a fairly prolonged wet, cool spell to write off a decent portion of the month.

 

What worries me most for summer is that Mushy and SP1986 haven't written it off yet.....

 

Even last May was poor, we were just lucky enough to have a warm spell between the 14th and 19th. There were widespread prolonged gales between the 07th and 11th and a notably dull wet spell between the 22nd and 28th. I think I would be more concerned if prolonged settled weather was progged for May as that is a rarely good for the summer.