Summer 2015

[Evening thunder]

Here due to various factors it hasn't quite reached 25C once (which is the first time I've recorded, albeit records only 2008 onwards, however local records say that's pretty unusual). Though I did have my warmest night into the 1st July including a temp of 23.7C at 2:50am!

 

However it has certainly not as bad as some in the 2007-2012 period for 'usable' weather, though it has been a bit bland.

[cheeky_monkey]

Here due to various factors it hasn't quite reached 25C once (which is the first time I've recorded, albeit records only 2008 onwards, however local records say that's pretty unusual). Though I did have my warmest night into the 1st July including a temp of 23.7C at 2:50am!

 

However it has certainly not as bad as some in the 2007-2012 period for 'usable' weather, though it has been a bit bland.

Interesting I looked at the almanac for Exeter and indeed it has only reached 25c once which was 30th June..where I live in West London on the same almanac it has reached 25c or more 22 times this summer so seems the warmth is very much localised to the south east.

Edited August 14, 2015 by cheeky_monkey

[Eugene]

LOL, where's the heatwave, 15C and rain all day, these southerly plumes are useless, even cool sunny days feel warmer.

Edited August 14, 2015 by Eugene

[Polar Maritime]

LOL, where's the heatwave, 15C and rain all day, these southerly plumes are useless, even cool sunny days feel warmer.

 

Who said Heatwave? This has been forecast all week.

Edited August 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

The problems with our summer have been the cold pool of water in the Atlantic, diminishing sunspot activity and gulf stream disruption caused by el nino mushy. Also we've had a big ice melt as well causing even more sluggishness with the jet stream positioning.

I'll buy many things, pjl...But 'diminished sunspot activity'? There, I'll draw the line...time-lags and all that?

[Gael_Force]

I'll buy many things, pjl...But 'diminished sunspot activity'? There, I'll draw the line...time-lags and all that?

Given some recent research i'd buy the sunspot theory over El Nino disrupting the gulf stream. Maybe PJ means the jet stream, if so, it might be possible.

Edited August 14, 2015 by Gael_Force

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking forward to a few dry days now, they are rare around here, looking at models, warmest spell of summer could be starting 20th Aug, now would that be unusual, for the summeriest spell to be so late

[damianslaw]

looking forward to a few dry days now, they are rare around here, looking at models, warmest spell of summer could be starting 20th Aug, now would that be unusual, for the summeriest spell to be so late

 

 

Statistically the warmest period of the year is late July-early August, though it isn't unusual for the warmest conditions of the year to occur outside this period. 20th August isn't that distant from the period mentioned and in some years some places have seen there warmest conditions outside of the summer months, think 2011, late May and late Sept!.. There is a thermal lag effect at this time of year, SST values are yet to reach there yearly peak, usually early Sept, and the continent takes a very long time to cool. Early Sept on average is warmer than June.. The difference is though we begin to loose the heat from the sun quite rapidly through latter part of August, and combined with shorter daylight duration, warm weather in late August never feels the same as warm weather in mid May - early Aug period.

 

Winter can do similar things, late Feb early March notorious for northerly incursions or high pressure set ups, and very cold maxima can still occur, yet a day with a max of 1 or 2 degrees then never feels quite the same as a similar day in late Nov - early Feb period..

 

I'll reserve my thoughts on the summer as a whole until the end of the month, but no matter how the next 2 weeks pan out, I won't be describing it as anything other than mediocre at best (max temps so far have been woeful indeed.), just 2 days above 25 degrees 30 June and 1 July respectively.

Edited August 14, 2015 by damianslaw

[Wildswimmer Pete]

I've looked at the websites ed that monitor what the sun is doing and solar activity is quieter than it was last year hence a different jet stream path and the gulf stream not functioning like it has done for the last couple of summers.

Could I mention two words: Grand Minimum

[cheese]

Looking good for my birthday on the 22nd - partly cloudy and 23C forecast. Hopefully the forecast will remain consistent until then.

 

August 2015 here has been like 2012 and 2009 - just very average, but average is pleasant.

[Milhouse]

Looking good for my birthday on the 22nd - partly cloudy and 23C forecast. Hopefully the forecast will remain consistent until then.

 

August 2015 here has been like 2012 and 2009 - just very average, but average is pleasant.

 

I am not disappointed that there are no heatwaves showing up on the models, and i am resigned to the fact that we have probably seen the last of the 30c days this Summer. Im just happy that theres a lot of dry weather on offer to really make use of the decreasing daylight hours. And it looks reasonably warm too.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I am not disappointed that there are no heatwaves showing up on the models, and i am resigned to the fact that we have probably seen the last of the 30c days this Summer. Im just happy that theres a lot of dry weather on offer to really make use of the decreasing daylight hours. And it looks reasonably warm too.

 

For your area but not mine, I have 4 dry days coming up, Sat-Tue, but then back to normal from wednesday with washout lows, living here sucks if you don't like rain, great if you like it

[Snowyowl9]

Who said Heatwave? This has been forecast all week.

The papers I expect,I did see last week they put mini heatwave from france that was for the last very pleasant warm few days we had.

This summer though has only seen 3 consecutive dry days so that really is a poor summer,it can`t go far with it raining to spoil things.

As for cloudcover that's another matter or lack of sun,thunderstorms a 1/10 aswell.

Theres been a total lack of big shower clouds too, only had 1 brief downpour and no CB clouds which makes this summer so lackluster.

Edited August 15, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Milhouse]

For your area but not mine, I have 4 dry days coming up, Sat-Tue, but then back to normal from wednesday with washout lows, living here sucks if you don't like rain, great if you like it

I hope i havent spoken too soon. That rainband over the north sea looks too close for comfort early next week.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

The supposedly warm air that covered the UK on Friday resulted in cold, heavy rain all day here with the temp. no more than 15C. Now at lunchtime on a mid-August day, a schorchio 16C.  I wish I could make it up.  Looks like "Summer" '15 is already crawling towards an unlamented early grave with autumn knocking loudly on the door.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The supposedly warm air that covered the UK on Friday resulted in cold, heavy rain all day here with the temp. no more than 15C. Now at lunchtime on a mid-August day, a schorchio 16C.  I wish I could make it up.  Looks like "Summer" '15 is already crawling towards an unlamented early grave with autumn knocking loudly on the door.

 

Still think August is over rated for summer weather, at least in my area, mornings, nearly every year feel increasingly like autumn even in settled setups, today as well, settled but not got out even warm, never mind hot

[cheese]

The supposedly warm air that covered the UK on Friday resulted in cold, heavy rain all day here with the temp. no more than 15C. Now at lunchtime on a mid-August day, a schorchio 16C.  I wish I could make it up.  Looks like "Summer" '15 is already crawling towards an unlamented early grave with autumn knocking loudly on the door.

Sorry Pete, but you need to drop this fanatical 'Grand Minimum' rubbish - it's getting really annoying. Autumn isn't knocking loudly on anyone's door - Friday was never going to be warm regardless of upper air temperature because of rain and cloud. That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.

[Ravelin]

The supposedly warm air that covered the UK on Friday resulted in cold, heavy rain all day here with the temp. no more than 15C. Now at lunchtime on a mid-August day, a schorchio 16C.  I wish I could make it up.  Looks like "Summer" '15 is already crawling towards an unlamented early grave with autumn knocking loudly on the door.

 

I'll take your 16C and raise you a midday temp of 12.4C at Aberdeen Airport (along with grey cloud and 4mm of rain since midnight). Now I know it's NE of Scotland so not exactly a 'continental' climate, but that's a temperature that wouldn't look that out of place some winters.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Sorry Pete, but you need to drop this fanatical 'Grand Minimum' rubbish - it's getting really annoying. Autumn isn't knocking loudly on anyone's door - Friday was never going to be warm regardless of upper air temperature because of rain and cloud. That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.

 

Cheese, I've mentioned "Grand Minimum" about three times - hardly "fanatical",  If you don't like what I post, then don't read it. I'm entitled to my opinion, you are entitled to yours.  I've observed the weather for over fifty years and noted the various cycles during that time. The behaviour of the sun in recent years together with the changes in wind and weather patterns in the North Atlantic, including the obvious cooling and shortening of the past few summers, concerns me. Haven't you noticed the now prevailing cold northwesterly during the past 4-5 summers?  If we ARE actually entering a Grand Minimum I'll never see the end of it.  

 

"That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.............of course, that heatwave that's always on the way in three to 4 days time.  Sadly that time doesn't seem to arrive.  This "summer" it's been "jam tomorrow".

 

I could claim that the obsessive use of "cool" rather than "cold" when appropriate is "fanatical"  In my view, summer "cool" means 16C to 20C, below 15C is COLD.

Edited August 15, 2015 by Wildswimmer Pete

[seaside 60]

Cheese, I've mentioned "Grand Minimum" about three times - hardly "fanatical",  If you don't like what I post, then don't read it. I'm entitled to my opinion, you are entitled to yours.  I've observed the weather for over fifty years and noted the various cycles during that time. The behaviour of the sun in recent years together with the changes in wind and weather patterns in the North Atlantic, including the obvious cooling and shortening of the past few summers, concerns me. Haven't you noticed the now prevailing cold northwesterly during the past 4-5 summers?  If we ARE actually entering a Grand Minimum I'll never see the end of it.  

 

"That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.............of course, that heatwave that's always on the way in three to 4 days time.  Sadly that time doesn't seem to arrive.  This "summer" it's been "jam tomorrow".

 

I could claim that the obsessive use of "cool" rather than "cold" when appropriate is "fanatical"  In my view, summer "cool" means 16C to 20C, below 15C is COLD.

Iam not getting in between you guys discussion, but what prevailing north westerlies.

Rubbish warm humid south westerlies yes,

Just not getting into the overall discussion but def no nw winds down here.

[MP-R]

The persistent northwesterly has only really been a pest throughout this summer. Last summer we only really had it in earnest during the second half of August and the year before that on even fewer occasions. 2012 was predominantly from a southwesterly quarter with August featuring more from the southeast.

 

Having just sat in the garden in what has been virtually unbroken sunshine, I can notice the lack of strength in the sun compared to even just a month ago. Very pleasant to be out in nonetheless.

[cheese]

Cheese, I've mentioned "Grand Minimum" about three times - hardly "fanatical",  If you don't like what I post, then don't read it. I'm entitled to my opinion, you are entitled to yours.  I've observed the weather for over fifty years and noted the various cycles during that time. The behaviour of the sun in recent years together with the changes in wind and weather patterns in the North Atlantic, including the obvious cooling and shortening of the past few summers, concerns me. Haven't you noticed the now prevailing cold northwesterly during the past 4-5 summers?  If we ARE actually entering a Grand Minimum I'll never see the end of it.  

 

"That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.............of course, that heatwave that's always on the way in three to 4 days time.  Sadly that time doesn't seem to arrive.  This "summer" it's been "jam tomorrow".

 

I could claim that the obsessive use of "cool" rather than "cold" when appropriate is "fanatical"  In my view, summer "cool" means 16C to 20C, below 15C is COLD.

No. Did you forget that the summers 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 were warmer than average?

 

I'm not talking about a heatwave - just warm weather. August itself has actually been quite warm for many places - and average for the CET area, and like June will probably end up near normal in the end.

 

Your fears are largely unfounded.

[Weather-history]

I could claim that the obsessive use of "cool" rather than "cold" when appropriate is "fanatical" In my view, summer "cool" means 16C to 20C, below 15C is COLD.

To me , it seems funny that someone who swims in rivers etc complaining about those air temperatures described and yet you will happily swim in water temperatures of the same equivalent or even less. Edited August 15, 2015 by Weather-history

[Wildswimmer Pete]

To me , it seems funny that someone who swims in rivers etc complaining about those air temperatures described and yet you will happily swim in water temperatures of the same equivalent or even less.

Look at my avatar, that's a 1" thick slab of ice. The fact that I can withstand extreme cold is by the by - it involves serious physiological adaptation that remodels the body. The reason I do it is of no consequence for this discussion.  I do not like cold, grey and thoroughly depressing weather especially in summer - period.  Regarding the prevailing cold NWesterlies, here in North Cheshire such winds have blighted us for the past few summers.

 

As for today, the current temp is 16C, and the wind direction is West - hardly warm and humid

[reef]

The last few summers haven't been predominantly north-westerly at all. In fact they were actually more easterly in nature (aside from August 2014), as evidenced by the rainfall and sunshine characteristics. Indeed, the sunshine and rainfall anomalies in 2014 are contrary to what this summer will no doubt show.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2013/14/2013_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/14/2014_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2013/14/2013_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/14/2014_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

Here near to the east coast, the last two summers were characterised by a lack of high maxima due to the persistent onshore breeze. This summer (and indeed 2015 as a whole so far) has seen the very unusual pattern of consistently above average maxima and below average minima due to the lack of easterly winds. Indeed, we haven't had any fog here since 23rd April, highly unusual for somewhere 7 miles from the North Sea, usually sea fret is a constant annoyance.