Summer 2015

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather keep upping London's temperatures looks like a prolonged period of heat from Monday / Tuesday I suspect they are underestimating Monday's and they'll be nearer the high 20's

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Sainsbo]

BBC are now forecasting 33C in London and Heathrow on Wednesday, and like SS said it looks like the temperatures for Monday are also crawling up too, now forecasting 25C.

 

I've always wondered what would constitute a Level 4 heat warning from the MetO. They state that Level 3 is when it is 90% certain that threshold values will be reached for 2 consecutive days/nights, but don't give any values for Level 4, they just say if it the heatwave is severe/prolonged enough.

 

I'm not saying that 33-34C is enough to warrant it, but just saying "severe/prolonged" is a little subjective.

[4wd]

And it reached 28. What's going to happen, next week?

Well BBC say 24C on Wednesday and Thursday here, should I take my jumper off   

Not got above 20C yet in this blistering hot spell!

[Guest]

An interesting point. Unless it reaches 30c by tuesday, we will have had 4 consecutive Junes where it hasn't been reached anywherr in the UK..

[Milhouse]

Its hovering around 20c and its almost 8 in the evening. This is what summer is all about! Not the dismal cool drizzy evenings of a week ago.

[damianslaw]

Third summer in the row where July will offer up very decent warmth/heatwave conditions. Well done July! show June and August how its done..

[Costa Del Fal]

Third summer in the row where July will offer up very decent warmth/heatwave conditions. Well done July! show June and August how its done..

June 30th will also be showing the rest of June how it's Done! Also because it's my birthday! Lol. Usually is dry and hot on my birthday though.

[March Blizzard]

My iPhone weather is going for a 34C max and 20C min for Gravesend on Wednesday...that's a mean of 27C!!

It's even got here down for 32C/18C, a 25C mean.

Considering the CET daily record is 25.2C, there's a decent chance that could be under threat.

Edited June 28, 2015 by March Blizzard

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

An interesting point. Unless it reaches 30c by tuesday, we will have had 4 consecutive Junes where it hasn't been reached anywherr in the UK..

Pretty sure it hit 30c on June 28th 2012. Although it may have been unofficial.

[Daniel*]

My iPhone weather is going for a 34C max and 20C min for Gravesend on Wednesday...that's a mean of 27C!!

It's even got here down for 32C/18C, a 25C mean.

Considering the CET daily record is 25.2C, there's a decent chance that could be under threat.

I'm actually quite confident this will be broken this is what the MO have for my location for Wednesday.

Maximum temperature: 33*C | Minimum temperature: 21*C

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 heatwave alert issued by the met office

 

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 1234 on Sun 28 Jun 2015

 

There is an 80 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1200 on Tuesday and 0600 on Thursday in parts of England.

 

Temperatures are expected to build on Tuesday 30 June and into Wednesday 01 July, with the hottest day of the year so far expected on successive days this working week. There is still some uncertainty regarding peak temperature values on these two days, however the highest maximum temperature is expected on Wednesday. Confidence in warm and humid nights to end Tuesday and Wednesday is currently much higher. A final area of uncertainty is the longevity of the episode, with temperatures currently thought likely to moderate from the west on Thursday as the warmest air gradually transfers eastwards.

 

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

[Weather26]

We have a tempeture of 26.c on Tuesday and 29c on Wednesday here in Sheffield (accoring to the BBC) before a more cloudier day on Thursday With showers in the afternoon meaning we get a still warm 24.c but it looks like we've got the heatwaveTuesday and Wednesday only

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Today has been a very typical "heat wave in development" day, with breezy south-westerlies and temperatures in the low twenties, as the Azores High ridges into Europe. The temperatures are all on the upward trend from now!

 

Also, I think the models and the forecasts are widely undercooking tomorrow's temperatures. I think we could widely see temperatures in the 22-27C range, for England and Wales anyway.

 

just what i was thinking, start of the warm weather, not expecting storms here until the Atlantic rolls in, Friday night though, would rather it was daytime

[Milhouse]

Today has been a very typical "heat wave in development" day, with breezy south-westerlies and temperatures in the low twenties, as the Azores High ridges into Europe. The temperatures are all on the upward trend from now!

 

Also, I think the models and the forecasts are widely undercooking tomorrow's temperatures. I think we could widely see temperatures in the 22-27C range, for England and Wales anyway.

 

Yes it occurred to me that today is the start of what should be a cracking week of Summer heat, sunshine and storms. In only a couple of days the SE will be touching 30c. And although the heat does depart on Friday night, the models are indicating that it could be back for a time a couple of days later. Plenty of interest for summer fans.

[Costa Del Fal]

Lovely warm afternoon. Very warm in the sun. 22c again. Expecting a 30 maybe 31c here this week given here is in quite an urban area and to the lee of some of the higher ground East and South East of here Birmingham way although it's not that significant.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[cheese]

BBC now show a high of 30C for Leeds on Wednesday - which is good going by their conservative/cautious standards! Saw the forecast for Manchester and it had a thunderstorm symbol - proper tropical looking.

[Scorcher]

BBC now show a high of 30C for Leeds on Wednesday - which is good going by their conservative/cautious standards! Saw the forecast for Manchester and it had a thunderstorm symbol - proper tropical looking.

 

Yes I've noticed the BBC temps have been gradually creeping up yesterday and today for Wednesday, 30C forecast for Manchester too and yes the thunderstorm symbol is still there. In the description though it does say 'low likelihood thundery showers'. I certainly hope they don't arrive before mid afternoon if they do come, as it would be a shame if they stopped the temps from climbing too high.

[Sainsbo]

I'm not quite sure Tuesday will be as hot as the BBC are anticipating - NMM and GFS showing max of 26/27C in London/SE and have been for a while, yet the BBC think 29/30C is possible.

 

If they think it will be 2/3C hotter on Tuesday than the models suggest, I wonder what that means for Wednesday?

[stainesbloke]

I'm not quite sure Tuesday will be as hot as the BBC are anticipating - NMM and GFS showing max of 26/27C in London/SE and have been for a while, yet the BBC think 29/30C is possible.

 

If they think it will be 2/3C hotter on Tuesday than the models suggest, I wonder what that means for Wednesday?

BBC forecast this morning showed 29C for the SE tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 34-35C for Wed, some very hot air moving north!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some exciting times for those who love the heat and thunderstorms ahead. While temperatures do seem unlikely to break any records (though I think personally the later July period would offer even better chances should another heat wave occur towards the end of the month), should still be a nice spell for the storm and hot weather enthusiasts, particularly the further South and East you are.

The humidity is already quite high here this morning (86%, but seems to be dropping) with the temperature at a fairly mild 14*C. Some sunny spells to start the morning with patches of altostratus/altocumulus-like cloud around. On a personal level, do feel the Met Office's prediction of 29*C for here on Wednesday is being underestimated. By 1*C.

[Sainsbo]

Not sure what charts MetDesk use, but they posted this on their Twitter two hours ago.

 

 

Quite a large area of purple (>32C)

[Nick L]

Not sure what charts MetDesk use, but they posted this on their Twitter two hours ago.

 

 

Quite a large area of purple (>32C)

 

It's based on the ECM

Edited June 29, 2015 by Nick L

[Sainsbo]

It's based on the ECM

 

Ah, okay. Thanks!

 

It looks like there is a fair amount of uncertainty on the max temperatures for Wednesday then. There again, if the GFS usually undercooks them, fingers crossed that we will see something more in line with what the ECM is showing!

[Nick L]

Ah, okay. Thanks!

 

It looks like there is a fair amount of uncertainty on the max temperatures for Wednesday then. There again, if the GFS usually undercooks them, fingers crossed that we will see something more in line with what the ECM is showing!

 

Well, there's a reason why we prefer to use the ECM over the GFS

Edited June 29, 2015 by Nick L

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If the ECM is anything to go by on its latest run. We really could be in for quite a remarkable historic July. Perhaps akin to 2006!

Very fun to be an observer at this current moment!