Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[summer blizzard]

Tonight's runs extend the high pressure to day 9 although the Euro is still going strong at day 10.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is dominated by anticyclonic conditions and although the high eventually becomes centred to the west of the UK for a time, it's close enough to bring sunny spells and pleasant daytime temperatures but with chilly nights, cold enough for slight frosts, even by T+240 it's rock solid anticyclonic and really the 12z output today in general shows a largely fine and pleasant outlook for the next 10 days at least in my opinion.

Edited April 12, 2015 by Frosty.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking fantastic this week. But my concern is that this possible breakdown looks very similar to April 2012 with the jet digging down. God willing, we won't be seeing a repeat of that dreadful period!

[knocker]

There is no great agreement between tonight's anomalies about the breakdown at day ten

 

The GEFS has the high latitude blocking with the trough to the NW of the UK that brings cold NW to the UK with temps below average. The ECM has the ridge to the SW of the UK aligned NW with a low pressure area adjacent to NE Canada. This would still bring the UK under the influence of HP centred to the west. It has to be said though that in the ext. period the ECM moves towards the GEFs position pretty quickly.

 

It certainly looks as is we are looking at a spell of quite cold unsettled conditions but far to early to call at this stage.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[shaky]

There is no great agreement between tonight's anomalies about the breakdown at day ten

 

The GEFS has the high latitude blocking with the trough to the NW of the UK that brings cold NW to the UK with temps below average. The ECM has the ridge to the SW of the UK aligned NW with a low pressure area adjacent to NE Canada. This would still bring the UK under the influence of HP centred to the west. It has to be said though that in the ext. period the ECM moves towards the GEFs position pretty quickly.

 

It certainly looks as is we are looking at a spell of quite cold unsettled conditions but far to early to call at this stage.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

high will probably topple over extended the current dry and very warm period!!thats my take on things!!!could be wrong of course but we have been here before where models are too amplified in fi and as we get closer to the time its a different outcome!!

[knocker]

For what it's worth the GFS has HP dominating out to day ten. The ECM is similar in some respects but does spar a tad with the low to the SW bfore late in the day retrogressing the HP. This I feel is where the interest will be.

 

Wednesday has a very striking temp differential between north and south.

Chart weatherbell

Edited April 13, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

There is no great agreement between tonight's anomalies about the breakdown at day ten

 

The GEFS has the high latitude blocking with the trough to the NW of the UK that brings cold NW to the UK with temps below average. The ECM has the ridge to the SW of the UK aligned NW with a low pressure area adjacent to NE Canada. This would still bring the UK under the influence of HP centred to the west. It has to be said though that in the ext. period the ECM moves towards the GEFs position pretty quickly.

 

It certainly looks as is we are looking at a spell of quite cold unsettled conditions but far to early to call at this stage.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

Looking at the extended London ECM ens graph, they seem to show a cool down without a marked uptick in precip and more notably, wind speeds.

certainly temps will drop off as pressure rises to the west and falls to the east but where we sit in that picture and how far south any troughing gets remains uncertain.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS and UKMO want to build the high over the UK by the weekend

UKMO

 

GFS

Both allow temperatures to recover back into the mid/high teens widely after a cool down on Thursday and Friday.

 

The ECM builds the high further west which means a chilly northerly, especially in eastern areas

 

This is maintained into week 2, the GFS holds the high over the UK, though it is receding somewhat by day 10. The GEM is similar to the GFS until day 8 before it quickly breaks the heights down introducing cooler and more unsettled weather. This still seems to be the week 2 trend, but as usual will it make it to the reliable or will high pressure prove more resilient.

[Polar Maritime]

Wednesday is looking warm for the S/E with temps possibly into mid-20's in some spots. With also a possibility of storms for the South Midlands.

 

Edited April 13, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Eugene]

There is no great agreement between tonight's anomalies about the breakdown at day ten

 

The GEFS has the high latitude blocking with the trough to the NW of the UK that brings cold NW to the UK with temps below average. The ECM has the ridge to the SW of the UK aligned NW with a low pressure area adjacent to NE Canada. This would still bring the UK under the influence of HP centred to the west. It has to be said though that in the ext. period the ECM moves towards the GEFs position pretty quickly.

 

It certainly looks as is we are looking at a spell of quite cold unsettled conditions but far to early to call at this stage.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

 

No cold daytime highs now until November at the earliest for the majority, single figure maxs are going to be very hard to come by for southern britain mid April onwards, nights like last night definately can still get cold until early June.

 

Looks like HP domination for the foreseeable future, stunning Spring so far.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Eugene

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run turns into a thing of beauty, almost entirely anticyclonic with a nationwide pleasantly warm and settled spell from later this week until the end of the run, nights would be cold at times with a risk of slight frosts and fog patches but soon clearing to long sunny spells and light winds.

For most of this week the north / nw is cooler and more unsettled but for the south the warmth and humidity increases with the peak reached on Wednesday, a risk of scattered T-Storms wed evening, by Thursday it's cooler and fresher as HP begins to build in over the top of the UK and intensify, especially from next weekend onwards.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO once again shows the high sitting firmly over the UK by the end of the week with ample fine and dry weather around although temps in the mid 20's for the south wouldn't be repeated it would still be pleasantly warm in any sunshine with temperatures around the mid to high teens

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 13TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will move NE across the UK today followed by a warm and moist SW flow with a trough remaining close to NW Scotland tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow blowing NE across Northern Britain with it's axis shifting further to the NW of the UK later in the week as pressure builds across the UK. Things become more uncertain in Week 2 with the orientation of the flow changing to South to north across Britain later in Week 2..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows warm conditions in a SW flow with High pressure to the SE for the first half of this week. Later in the week a new High from the Atlantic will cool things down for a time but maintain largely dry weather with plenty of sunshine. The High is then shown to settle across the UK for some considerable time delivering fine and steadily warmer conditions again before a slow decline of the High to the SE later could return the risk of rain from the NW albeit briefly as pressure is shown to rebuild yet again from the West by Day 14.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in it's first 7-9 days with warm High pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with just a brief cooler blip with a few showers towards the middle of next week before warm air surges back North by the end of the run. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a bias towards winds likely to be blowing from a point between West and North in two weeks time. Quite a high percentage of the pack indicate High pressure quite close to the SW ensuring some dry and fine weather but any flow from the North could lead to lower temperatures and the risk of frost by night.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure to the SE with a warm SW flow until Thursday when a new cooler High pressure moves in from off the Atlantic, settling across the UK and allowing daytine temperatures to recover well again, back to above average levels by day but maybe some chilly and misty nights inland next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts on the face of it are not that inspiring as a lot of weak troughs splice High pressure but they are very weak with a lot of chances for warm sunshine to break through their cloud cover before a cooler High pressure still with some cloud over the South takes control.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure in control for much of the period, firstly to the SE and then a new High building across the UK at the end of the week. warm weather will turn cooler alter in the week as the new High forms. Later in the run the High quickly collapses and Low pressure to the NW deepens and takes control of things with rain and stronger winds for all by the end of the 10 day period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar track to the other models but holds the new formed High late in the week further to the West which could allow a lot more cloud into the mix for many and this accompanied by a chill wind from a North or NW direction.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is showing a pattern which has been shown by it's 10 day mean chart for days now with High pressure dominant through the period eventually centred to the West of the UK. The warmth of early in this comng week and perhaps again briefly at the weekend will be less pronounced with time as a chilly North drift especially near the North Sea Coast could ensure chilly conditions here and temperatures closer to average elsewhere with rather a lot of cloud flowing South down over the UK at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to the SW and a slack NW flow down across the UK returning temperatures to close to average with variable cloud cover, a lot of dry weather and just a little rain principally over the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning have reduced the risk of a cold Northerly in Week 2 as High pressure looks like holding sway near the UK.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.1 pts over GFS's 60.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.0 pts over GFS at 41.6. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output reflects a lot of dry weather to come across the British Isles over the next few weeks. If you live in the far NW you may think this is nonsense as rain will be heavy and prolonged here until Wednesday but elsewhere High pressure at first to the SE and later over the UK will ensure fine weather for all. Temperatures will be up and down a bit with this early week's warmth cooling off quite quickly by Thursday and Friday from the North as the new High forms from the West. Next weekend could see daytine temperatures above average again for a time and before we move through week 2 with conditions then totally dependant on where that High relocates. There is still some disagreement on this with GFS Cluster data eventually pushing it likely to a point to the SW of the UK while others like ECM hold it to the West and others to the South and SE with rain bearing fronts bearing down on the UK from the NW as per GEM. Which is right or whether a different evolution to any of those shown in this morning's output have sanctioned is anyone's guess currently but it looks like the most likely result is that dry conditions look like continuing on for some considerable time for the rest of April which if turns out to be true will make it a very dry April indeed for many. If I was to be picky it looks unlikely that sustained high temperatures are likely with this week's summer warmth at times probably falling back towards something more average for the time of year more likely next week.. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday April 14th 2015

[mushymanrob]

Make the most of next weeks warm weather(if that's what you prefer) because the models are now pointing to a drastic cool down thereafter..

 

thats not strictly true though is it. it isnt a done deal that there will be a chilly northerly blast, and even if there is one the coldest plunge might well go down the north sea. returning to more 'normal' temps after midweek isnt particually 'drastic' either.

looking pretty 'normal' to me, some certain warmth, some possible cold, pretty dry sunny/bright and alot of average/normal on offer over the next couple of weeks.

[Frosty.]

thats not strictly true though is it. it isnt a done deal that there will be a chilly northerly blast, and even if there is one the coldest plunge might well go down the north sea. returning to more 'normal' temps after midweek isnt particually 'drastic' either.

looking pretty 'normal' to me, some certain warmth, some possible cold, pretty dry sunny/bright and alot of average/normal on offer over the next couple of weeks.

I agree mushy, there is no drastic cool down shown next week, the ukmo and gfs 00z show high pressure becoming centred slap bang over the top of the UK with temperatures next week rising into the mid 60's F with lots of strong sunshine.

[Captain Shortwave]

thats not strictly true though is it. it isnt a done deal that there will be a chilly northerly blast, and even if there is one the coldest plunge might well go down the north sea. returning to more 'normal' temps after midweek isnt particually 'drastic' either.

looking pretty 'normal' to me, some certain warmth, some possible cold, pretty dry sunny/bright and alot of average/normal on offer over the next couple of weeks.

It might be quite drastic for southern areas (potentially around a 10C drop after Wednesday). That said the lowest point seems to be near normal temperatures. Not so for the northern half of the UK of course.

The ECM ens back the operational over the positioning of the high from day 5 to 10.

So west of the UK allowing the possibility of a plunger of cooler air from the north, also the possibility of low cloud down eastern coasts. To be honest I would prefer the UKMO/GFS solution where the ridge stretching up from Iberia into the UK, hence holding the high over the UK would be the better option with widespread sunny spells and light winds after the front clears to our south by Friday. Temperatures lower but respectable for April. That said the final week does still seem to favour the loss of heights with something cooler pushing down from the north/north west. Hopefully this won't be the beginnings of the poor May most long range models have been consistently seeing for weeks now.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[summer blizzard]

Euro keeps pressure high enough to largely deflect the northerly. GFS keeps the high over us to day 9.

 

[knocker]

Looking at this mornings anomalies it certainly isn't a done deal vis-a-vis the possible breakdown around day ten

 

The ECM is still plugging the LP in the NW Atlantic thus not tending towards the GEFS high latitude weak blocking , Rather more, as last night, a ridge to the W of the UK thus pushing the trough further east. This is the key play and at the moment there is much uncertainty how this will develop with the ECM in the ext. period going for a trough to the NW which wouldn't obviously be good news.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited April 13, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

There is lots to like about the Gfs 6z op run with high pressure dominant for most of the run. Tomorrow and especially Wednesday look very warm in the south and southeast with mid 20's celsius for favoured spots, then more humid with a risk of isolated Storms wed evening and very muggy but by Thursday it will be much cooler and fresher like the rest of the UK will have been all along, as well as being unsettled further north. Then high pressure builds in over the UK from Friday and brings a nationwide settled spell with chilly nights and local frosts but lots of sunshine and daytime temperatures rising into the 60's F, becoming very pleasant again next week.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z continues to show a nationwide anticyclonic spell from Friday until later next week with good spells of sunshine and temperatures closer to average but still feeling warm in the prolonged sunshine but with chilly nights where skies clear.

[Frosty.]

This evenings Ukmo 12z also looks set fair next weekend and beyond with sunny spells and light winds.

[Winter Cold]

Evening all.

 

ECM continues the theme of high pressure dominance tonight, to add to the other runs. It really is turning out to be quite a spell for most of the country. Cant be many complaints for those who like sunny and pleasant weather so far!

 

   

 

 

Just hints at pressure starting to decline right at the end which does match with predictions currently of a different end to April and with the high more out west, the temps do look like dropping off to more sensible values.

[mushymanrob]

Evening all.

 

ECM continues the theme of high pressure dominance tonight, to add to the other runs. It really is turning out to be quite a spell for most of the country. Cant be many complaints for those who like sunny and pleasant weather so far!

 

   

 

 

Just hints at pressure starting to decline right at the end which does match with predictions currently of a different end to April and with the high more out west, the temps do look like dropping off to more sensible values.

Hmmmm that ecm run isnt good for eastern areas. Very similae charts in april 1974 produced cold grey overcast mornings and into early afternoons. It was warm when the murk burnt back, if the murk burnt back. We could get sun from midday, or five pm.. The west of course fared very well, lots of warm sun. The east though.... Hell... But at least it was dry.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows an anticyclonic outlook for the whole of the UK and although the high gradually becomes centred further to the northwest, it looks close enough to bring broken cloud and sunny spells for the east with the best of the sunshine for central and western areas and although temperatures won't compare to the next few days in the south, it would still feel pleasant enough in the strong sunshine and out of the breeze, chilly nights would occur where skies clear..it's still good to have this type of weather than Atlantic wind and rain any day.

Edited April 13, 2015 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z - Instead of colder air coming down from the north, the high actually brings relatively warm air. However as it has to cross the North Sea first to reach us it will be the SW that sees the best of the temperatures.