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JON SNOW

Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

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The GEFS 00z mean is still looking very good towards mid month onwards, becoming anticyclonic and pleasant.

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A new thread for a new Month/Season.


 


As ever, Please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, And head over to the banter Spring/Summer thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:


https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/#entry3178481


 


We also have the Spring thread open for wider discussion:


https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82341-spring-2015/


 


If you're wondering where you can view the models, Many of them are available here on Netweather, Including the GFS,ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - All available from the Charts and Data page here:


http://www.netweathe...-and-data;sess=


 

I have just moved Frosty's last post into here ^

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I find the statistics on how the models are performing in the northern hemisphere over various days out to 10 days, see below really interesting. Why? Well they do seem to highlight what posters perceive and what the statistics actually are. I know they are for the whole northern hemisphere but it does seem odd that ECMWF often gets slated when the statistics show otherwise.


 


Has anyone got any views on why this is I wonder? 


 


31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 daysECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.5 pts over GFS at 42.5. 


 


this is a link to the 5 and 6 day statistics


http://www.emc.ncep....TATS/STATS.html


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cheers pm, very decent of you :-)

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean continues to show a much more settled outlook towards mid month and beyond, as does the Gefs 00z mean

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The GFS is liking the idea of a very mild first half to next week with the NW seeing quite a lot of rain but becoming drier and warmer the further SE you are. With warm winds wafting up from the Azores we could even see 17/18c reached. The Atlantic properly breaks through to end then week but its not too long before high pressure nudges in to settle things down for all parts.

 

 

The ECM op still has a messy look to thinks with a mild SW flow never really setting up to deliver mild temperatures similar to the GFS. The op ends with cold air filtering down into central and eastern Europe. But this is not supported by the mean which indicates temperatures and pressure on the rise from the south as we approach day 10.

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The 00z precip charts show some heavy rain for NW Scotland with over 100mm possible, whilst in the south & SE we see very little in the way of rain

 

prec4.png

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cheers pm, very decent of you :-)

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean continues to show a much more settled outlook towards mid month and beyond, as does the Gefs 00z mean

 

they also both look not too different to how the anomaly charts(well NOAA as EC-GFS are less consistent) see the upper pattern so another reason to feel they may have the right idea.

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The 6z ends with a cold SE'ly to E'ly flow as high pressure migrates to scandinavia. Looking in more detail, it's about to become very mild, mid teens Celsius and broken cloud with sunny spells with swly winds but I should mention that northwest Scotland could have local flooding due to heavy rain and snow melt in the coming days, during the weekend, a band of rain pushes slowly SE. During next week, very mild and bright for the south and east but still a risk of some rain, cooler and more unsettled for north and west but by the end of next week the Atlantic weakens as high pressure builds NE and brings a very mild and pleasant early spring spell before that change I mentioned at the beginning.

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Yes Frosty, A cold/dry slack Continental S/E flow towards the end of the run with High Pressure to the North of the UK blocking the Atlantic. Something BA has been hinting at for a good few days now.. Almost a split PV on the 6z.

 

gfsnh-0-372.png?6gfsnh-1-372.png?6gfsnh-6-372.png?6

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Do we have the strength to chase another scandi high? I dont know whether I do lol. Is it too little too late anyway? The air doesnt look all that cold so temps maybe around average with those charts PM? I suspect at this point in the year, if its not going to deliver snow then people will want rid of it. Id love one last big hurrah, but is it possible?

 

I suppose as the NH is coming out of its winter profile its natural for the PV to start losing strength and be more bullied by highs trying to ridge north? Maybe this time we will see a scandi high, the same as we did in November before the PV got too strong...

 

Nice charts to look at anyway :)

 

gfs-0-384.png?6       ECM1-240.GIF?05-12

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GFS 06z ens looking settled for the foreseeable future in the south whilst the far north and west looks prone to some heavy rain at times during the next 7 to 10 days as its here where you'll be closer to low pressure systems

 

gens-21-1-120.png?6gens-21-1-168.png?6gens-21-1-252.png?6gens-21-1-324.png?6gens-21-1-384.png?6

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There would be some ice days Chris if the 6z S/E flow rang true..

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There would be some ice days for the Midlands North Chris if the 6z S/E flow rang true..

 

I would never buy into the "new" GFS op's HLB in FI. Although the MJO signal leads that way and the hi-res would be expected to pick it up and run with it first, it is like a misnomer to me currently. Anyway the op has little support from its mean for a HLB; the mean continues with the MLB, with the mean core heights moving to the Continent before retrogressing back to form a UK high:

 

op:  post-14819-0-92087400-1425563606_thumb.p  mean:  post-14819-0-27313600-1425563607_thumb.p

 

The JMA update for week 2 ties in with this, with the core mean anomaly to our east, with mild uppers. A strong signal:

 

week 2: post-14819-0-01983000-1425563759_thumb.p  week 3-4: post-14819-0-82509000-1425563815_thumb.p

 

Week 3-4 keeps the UK under a positive heights anomaly UK centric. That ties in with the 06z D16 mean chart.

 

So the trend of the last week looks to be maintained with positive pressure anomaly easily outstripping a lower anomaly. N/S split at times in week 1 with the possibility of a front or two crossing the UK during the first 10 days, but overall temps look like they will be 1-2c above average in the south for the next 16 days as a whole, with the potential for March to be HP dominated right into April :D

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There would be some ice days Chris if the 6z S/E flow rang true..

 

Surely ice days are virtually impossible so late, except for the rarest of cases such as March 2013. Temperatures look too low on that chart to me. On the GFS 6Z on wetterzentrale it shows no lower than 7/8c. Thats what id expect with upper 850s around -5/-6c.

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GFS and UKMO show a low pressure system west of Scotland on Monday before crossing

 

UW96-21.GIF?05-17gfs-0-102.png?12

 

Further on GFS shows some deep lows north west of Scotland where here we would have some strong to gale force winds and some heavy rain the far south should be a bit calmer as here your closer to the high

 

gfs-0-174.png?12gfs-0-192.png?12

 

Once those lows pull away pressure begins to rise

 

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The GFS is a tale of 2 halves. Up to t+240 its a story of mild southwesterly winds, occasional bands of rain and some decent dry days too especially for the SE. From T+240 onwards high pressure builds north across the UK and sets up residence to our northeast dragging in cooler air from the east, which translates to temperatures on the ground in the region of 6-10c.

 

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It sure as Hell isn't looking dry in the NW of Scotland. Up to 200mm accumulated over the next 84 hours!

 

84-777UK_sss3.GIF

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From looking at all the charts/Metoffice forecasts it does look awful for up here from tomorrow night onwards although with a few clear spells in between.

Middle of March currently looks sunny, dry and settled - cool across much of the UK during daytime with frosts at night.

Saturday looks a lovely Spring day for all of England though - it is always around this time of the year I get very jealous of folk living in the South East of England as they begin to see glorious Spring sunshine and pleasant temps. (Looks great for a few days from Saturday)

Having lots of snow here in Winter makes up for a little bit of my jealously though!

Get the mower and the beers out! 15 to 16 degrees is perfect early Spring weather (little warmer even better)

I can't wait for my first spell like that!

Enjoy!

Cheers

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The GEFS 12z mean turns increasingly anticyclonic from around T+168 onwards which ties in with the met office outlook improving significantly from next Thursday, really for those on here who are looking forward to a prolonged spell of fine weather with light winds and lots of sunshine, the charts for mid month and beyond could not be better.

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There would be some ice days Chris if the 6z S/E flow rang true..

 

 

Wow ice days on the 20th of March. :shok:

 

Same easterly flow trend on GFS 12Z FI.

 

Until then a mild southwesterly flow with pulses of rain pushing through and the odd ridge day, tuesdays wet weather arrives earlier on monday evening now leaving a fresher sunny tuesday before cloudy drizzly weather for Wednesday, i think a mixed picture sums it up.

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Looking through the GEFS 12z perturbations in the T+240 range I found good support for an anticyclonic outlook, some peachy charts here, there were more with a Similar theme but these are the best

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From looking at all the charts/Metoffice forecasts it does look awful for up here from tomorrow night onwards although with a few clear spells in between.

Middle of March currently looks sunny, dry and settled - cool across much of the UK during daytime with frosts at night.

Saturday looks a lovely Spring day for all of England though - it is always around this time of the year I get very jealous of folk living in the South East of England as they begin to see glorious Spring sunshine and pleasant temps. (Looks great for a few days from Saturday)

Having lots of snow here in Winter makes up for a little bit of my jealously though!

Get the mower and the beers out! 15 to 16 degrees is perfect early Spring weather (little warmer even better)

I can't wait for my first spell like that!

Enjoy!

Cheers

 

 

Just checked the UKMO website and for the West Midlands it says its looking rather cloudy next three days with light rain on Sunday and turning cooler with more rain pushing east on Monday, earlier in the week provided much more sunshine here.

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ECM mean once again has a big rise in pressure later on. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

 

Reem2401.gif

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Just checked the UKMO website and for the West Midlands it says its looking rather cloudy next three days with light rain on Sunday and turning cooler with more rain pushing east on Monday, earlier in the week provided much more sunshine here.

 

Yes, ECM does not show the promise of a few days ago - even Sunday not looking dry in the south.

 

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XI4LmTZ.gif  wWgkklw.gif

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Evening Folks. The greater population of the Uk is set to benefit from any spring warmth which includes southern and south eastern England, and the London area. The further North and West you are the grimmer it gets! Ive only posted charts to T+96 because the reason is that's the outer region of semi reliability, or consider total FI is about that..... :rofl:  Scrolled through the rest of the models and it seems a normal Spring is on offer....We shall see! :cc_confused:  The idea from a nationwide high pressure scenario from the models is now dead and buried,,,,

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