Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[mushymanrob]

So you'd rather have cool, unsettled weather over warm, settled weather, just because it's nearly September? Am I missing something? I find that really strange - surely given the choice the latter is vastly more appealing.

 

not in particular, i just dont care.

[Mokidugway]

Next week looks abysmal! More of the same crud, wet and windy and no sign of any settled period. August has failed to impress me. I'll get my coat (literally)

sunny all next week for me ..

[cheese]

not in particular, i just dont care.

Each to their own - though I think most of us will take any settled, warm weather we can, regardless of the time of year. Beggars can't be choosers anyway!

[mushymanrob]

Each to their own - though I think most of us will take any settled, warm weather we can, regardless of the time of year. Beggars can't be choosers anyway!

 

my preference is for dry weather come autumn, just to make work easier.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the latest posts, think I've forgotten what this thread is meant to be about....

Back on-topic please guys!

[mushymanrob]

High pressure being signalled in the typical 7-9 day range again so it's bound to not materialise.... but it will be September then, of course it will happen.

 

anomaly charts didnt support it though, and still dont, but they are wobbling abit so who knows?... its all looking pretty messy and unsettled.

[knocker]

I must admit CS when I read 'potential plume' and 'burst of true heat' in the same post I came over quite faint.

[MP-R]

Am I looking at the wrong models or have they changed. I can't see anything other than brief ridges into September, chiefly bringing slightly more settled weather for the south. I'm also quite interested in the GFS' of another potential very warm humid weekend, perhaps with repeated thundery potential.

[johnholmes]

my view using the two main sets of anomaly charts=unclear from day 6 the precise pattern but not heat and Euro ridging would be my suggestion?

 

 

[knocker]

Latest from the METO

 

25 August 2015 - There are early signs much of the UK will see an improvement in weather over the bank holiday weekend and this will last through much of next week.

 

Whilst rain and showers are likely across much of the country on Saturday and at first on Sunday, there are signs of an improvement from the west as we go through Sunday and Monday.

 

The change in the weather is being driven by the jet stream which is slowly moving south east whilst weakening significantly. The presence of the strong jet across the UK at the beginning of the weekend brings unsettled weather to much of the UK, but the absence of it by late Monday allows high pressure and more settled weather to move in.

 

It looks like high pressure will approach the UK from the west over the weekend, bringing more in the way of drier, sunnier weather to many by Bank Holiday Monday, especially in the west.

 

There are then signs the high pressure will continue to dominate the UK's weather through much of next week, bringing a few days of sunshine for much of the country.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/bank-holiday?WT.mc_id=Twitter_News_Pressrelease

[davehsug]

If people were posting summer anomalies in January, they'd soon be shown the door.

[knocker]

If people were posting summer anomalies in January, they'd soon be shown the door.

 

If that is a reference to the El Nino composite I posted I would just like to add it was just meant as a wind up (wet and windy) and not meant as a serious intrusion of winter synoptics. Heaven forbid I should be accused of that.

Edited August 26, 2015 by knocker

[snow freak]

well after my initial optimistic outlook for summer 2015 it really has turned into one of the most depressing summers I can remember.  No real extended hot spells, no regular sunshine just the odd very warm sunny day and then days of cool and cloud.  Rinse and repeat.  I for one will be glad to see the end of this summer now although I am not holding my breath for an interesting winter either.  But who knows, I could be pleasantly surprised.

[Hotspur62]

well after my initial optimistic outlook for summer 2015 it really has turned into one of the most depressing summers I can remember.  No real extended hot spells, no regular sunshine just the odd very warm sunny day and then days of cool and cloud.  Rinse and repeat.  I for one will be glad to see the end of this summer now although I am not holding my breath for an interesting winter either.  But who knows, I could be pleasantly surprised.

This just goes to show how much difference 100/120 miles difference can make. In this part of the country we have had an exceptionally dry summer with very little rainfall except for the last week when the heavens have well and truly opened!!. True it has not been overly hot but temps have been average. I really feel sorry for those in the North of England and Scotland who really seem to have come off very badly with continuous rain and below average temps for the last 3 months or so.But that shows the varied great british weather for you.Lets see what happens this winter. Would be good for a cold and snowy winter for all of the UK which the vast majority of this forum would be happy with

[Eugene]

Some fantastic model output tonight with heights rising to our northwest a common theme, we lose this depressing SW'ly routine to be replaced by a much fresher cooler trend with some cool nights possible especially if the high topples.

 

Much better and for those suffering sleepless nights.

Edited August 26, 2015 by Eugene

[cheese]

I have mixed feelings about next week's north to north-westerly wind. I am not looking forward to it because all winds from those directions bring is cloud and 11C days to my area. However at the same time, I'm thankful that it is occurring now, instead of in the middle of January.

That's an unusual perspective. Even most winter haters I know would rather get the cold out of the way in the appropriate season and save summer for the heat.

[conor123]

Sods law heading to London this weekend and looked warm/pleasant before and dire at home, now looks like an atrocious washout Sat/Sun and nice at home, rain follows me!

[Sweatyman]

Sods law heading to London this weekend and looked warm/pleasant before and dire at home, now looks like an atrocious washout Sat/Sun and nice at home, rain follows me!

yeah I'm off to south coast for the weekend and it looks rubbish.

[Milhouse]

Next week would be dire if it were mid summer but as its the start of Autumn i care a lot less. Looks like the pleasant warmth will conveniently last till the absolute end of Summer before temperatures fall back.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thunderbolt_ for god's sake give it a rest, all you go on about is moaning about cold and winter, done it all summer, think about Summer, look for warm/settled charts, charts for next week look okay, warm in any sun, cool though if in wind

[mushymanrob]

That's another reason why it's not too bad now. If a northerly has to occur, I'd rather it be around September-early October. That way we wouldn't be spoiling high summer, and at the same time it's too early to bring all of the snowy garbage.

 

'snowy garbage'?... cor your popularity will take a dive using phrases like that! lol.

high summer was spoilt though by northerly sourced air

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Summer is nearly dead and buried, Long live autumn, can see another warm spell at some point though between now and end of Sept. Some nice chilly nights coming up next week courtesy of HP.

Edited August 27, 2015 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Milhouse]

Summer is nearly dead and buried, Long live autumn, can see another warm spell at some point though between now and end of Sept.

 

Yes it looks like thats almost it for another year. Some warmish days to come until the turn of the month than a fresher period. But as you say i wouldnt be suprised to see some warmth return later in the month given that September is only a litlle cooler than June. Its mid october that the first chilly days start to feature and the thick coat makes an appearance.

 

Ive been quite happy with this summer round here. The stats for the country as a whole will paint a slightly below par picture but weve been in one of the more favoured areas.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Been pretty good here to, up until this week not much rain at all. Been warm but not to warm and it was nice to get a July heat record.

[Yarmy]

Getting a northerly next week neither increases nor decreases the chances of it happening in December. My failure to win the lottery this week has not increased my chance of winning it next week.