Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Evening thunder]

Why is it so hard to get warmth (and storms) in this country atm? when literally just across the channel they hold on to it all the time next week (e.g the ECM). So much apparent promise and so much fail. 

 

Even the high pressure next week looks pretty cool.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Evening thunder

[stainesbloke]

Why is it so hard to get warmth (and storms) in this country atm? when literally just across the channel they hold on to it all the time next week (e.g the ECM). So much apparent promise and so much fail.

Even the high pressure next week looks pretty cool.

The near continent will cool off quickly too looking at the charts, the heat moving to E Europe but that vanishing too next week. A vile 06z GFS run, yes dry next week but cold yet again then troughing setting up yet again over W Europe. Nasty if it comes off. Though the ECM giving a very different picture with another hot plume modelled for 11-12th...as the models are all over the place, gives me some hope that we'll see a warm up soon. Edited June 2, 2015 by stainesbloke

[mushymanrob]

Why is it so hard to get warmth (and storms) in this country atm? when literally just across the channel they hold on to it all the time next week (e.g the ECM). So much apparent promise and so much fail. 

 

Even the high pressure next week looks pretty cool.

 

yes, the uppers suggest next weeks expected high to be cool, but its JUNE! the sun is high and very strong in the sky. the air sourced from a more cool northerly latitude will be clear and fresh (assuming we dont get north sea stratus), in the clear air it will feel superb in the sun!  heat without humidity suits most.

[stainesbloke]

yes, the uppers suggest next weeks expected high to be cool, but its JUNE! the sun is high and very strong in the sky. the air sourced from a more cool northerly latitude will be clear and fresh (assuming we dont get north sea stratus), in the clear air it will feel superb in the sun!  heat without humidity suits most.

That's true, will be very nice to have clean air, strong sun and not much humidity. As long as it's not like enduring an ice bucket challenge when the sun goes in. Or shiver under an über-dreary North Sea grey stratus-fest and howling NE winds.

[MP-R]

Well the last two days have been vile. Tropical maritime air is just pants in every possible way. Bring me any wind directions except SW-W! Seeing as the plume fail at the end of the week is being moved ever eastwards, I'll happily take next week's high pressure. As long as it's centered over the UK or thereabouts, breeze will be minimal so despite it arriving from the northwest, the northwest wind won't accompany it and instead - strong sunshine and deep blue skies. Temperatures will of course rise as a result and 21-24C should be more than possible in lengthy sunny spells.

[Eugene]

Yet another day of cold, cloudy, miserable, PM north-westerly rubbish! Look on the brightside though, once we get this horrid wet and windy garbage out of the way, summer will finally get going.

 

Southwesterly garbage actually.

[IanR]

should I slit my wrist now or just wait a bit longer, only joking, anyone for june to be another below average ? I knew that cold anomaly in the atlantic would scupper any warm/hot weather this summer,  still its only early summer,  

[conor123]

Oh my god this year!!!!! can't believe AGAIN were destined for 14c and a howling NW wind, green upper's and showers all weekend here.

Not only that but still no 20c this year, Friday showing 17c now! never been so pale in June, north west winds and cool upper's = overcast here from 8am - 8pm. 

[stainesbloke]

Vile 12z. Just horrid. Why is it so persistently cold? Risk of frosts outside of towns/cities in June is disgusting. Perhaps we'll get a 1976 style heatwave as summer goes on?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Oh my god this year!!!!! can't believe AGAIN were destined for 14c and a howling NW wind, green upper's and showers all weekend here.

Not only that but still no 20c this year, Friday showing 17c now! never been so pale in June, north west winds and cool upper's = overcast here from 8am - 8pm. 

 

thought i read on here you're off to turkey? you are guaranteed some summer

 

My guess for next 2 weeks is, mainly cool with high pressure 6th to 11th, then back to our usual wind/rain from 12th

[conor123]

thought i read on here you're off to turkey? you are guaranteed some summer

 

My guess for next 2 weeks is, mainly cool with high pressure 6th to 11th, then back to our usual wind/rain from 12th

Aye thank goodness, though would of been nice to go with a tan i'm gonna burn like hell now aha!

[Skullzrulerz]

Only a few days ago we was talking about a near nationwide heatwave now today so it seems only the south east and central England is only getting anything warmer.

 

From a standpoint i would of loved to seem a very warm/hot heatwave but however as i seems at the moment ( I could change ) has all but broken apart, however i couldn't see a heatwave happing becuase it was just "hard" to get the High pressure at the right place at the right time same goes with the heat too...

 

Unfortunately some of us too the bait and payed for it.

 

It looks like in the south west it won't even reach 20c let alone get warmer.

 

But the only good news is that it will be dry nationwide for at least a few days to two weeks.

[Mokidugway]

Save the pain ,get on a plane !!!. This pattern will stay all summer ..

Edited June 2, 2015 by Mokidugway

[mushymanrob]

Oh good grief... What are you lot on about?

The outlook really isnt that bad!

[Sweatyman]

Not a bad Ecm 12z this evening, better than the Gfs 12z with stronger anticyclonic influence next week, generally fine and pleasantly warm surface conditions by day but with chilly starts.

really don't mind a chilly start,just want blue sky's and warm!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Surely if the models have flipped like this from warm to cool, they can just as easily flip back in the mid to long run. Patience!

[Richard2901]

Weekend was looking glorious now it's looking like more mediocre dross. Didn't manage a single dry weekend last summer and had one all spring. To rub salt in to the wounds the latest GFS shows high pressure slap bang over the UK the following week only to be replaced by more disgusting rubbish in time for the weekend of the 13th/14th 

 

It is incredulous and just getting as bad as Shetland here, struggling to get any remotely warm temperatures or dry weather for even a couple of days never mind a prolonged spell.

 

So glad I decided to take an early summer holiday this year. Will be going abroad in June for the first time ever. Should have done this years ago as this really is the vilest month of the year nowadays. Every year the weekends are like something out of a horror movie set in perpetual November

[Frosty.]

just want blue sky's and warm!

I think you speak for most of us on here

[captaincroc]

really don't mind a chilly start,just want blue sky's and warm!

 

Same here....there is too much Doom and gloom on here! haha. I would not be complaining about cool nights after what we have had to put up with previous June's. 

[summer blizzard]

So long as it's not dull or humid i'm fine. Remember also that the thermal peak is something like August 12th so you can still get a solid hot spell.

[Essan]

Anyone would think it was the 2nd December and we still hadnt had record snowfall in the SE ......

Oh ...... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anyone would think it was the 2nd December and we still hadnt had record snowfall in the SE ......

Oh ...... 

 

Yes, I think people expecting warm sunny/settled weather too soon, July is normally when summer gets going

[cheese]

Yes, I think people expecting warm sunny/settled weather too soon, July is normally when summer gets going

Not really. We are treating 28C in June as if it's exceptional, but it isn't. Here in Leeds we reached 32C in June 2000 and we've exceeded 30C in June on several other occasions. A few days in the mid-upper 20s in June is NOT unusual, and it ISN'T too much to ask for. It's only because May was so bad that people think it's something worth celebrating/

 

SB is right, we have all summer and even September for hot weather - but I don't want to wait that long, and I would like to take advantage of the long days now before they start drawing in rapidly.

Edited June 2, 2015 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

Not really. We are treating 28C in June as if it's exceptional, but it isn't. Here in Leeds we reached 32C in June 2000 and we've exceeded 30C in June on several other occasions. A few days in the mid-upper 20s in June is NOT unusual, and it ISN'T too much to ask for. It's only because May was so bad that people think it's something worth celebrating/

 

SB is right, we have all summer and even September for hot weather - but I don't want to wait that long, and I would like to take advantage of the long days now before they start drawing in rapidly.

Agree completely. Think due to a chilly Spring that got stuck in March, having cold continuing into Summer proper is all the more obvious and unwelcome. Still, only on day 3 of summer, we will get some warmth at some point.

[mushymanrob]

 

SB is right, we have all summer and even September for hot weather -

Yeah, that old chestnut.

I pity people who think summer is only about heat. You are missing out on so much more.