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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

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A new storm and convective thread for the start of spring and the 2015 Convection season. Will we do as well as last year? :)

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Let's hope for a decent convective year now that we begin the journey into Spring :)

 

Already some interest S of Ireland this morning, slowly heading towards parts of W UK. 

 

10.20am:

 

post-15172-0-36363600-1425205317_thumb.p

 

Not sure if the lightning activity will make it across, but met office rainfall forecast does show the line of squally showers getting here.

 

post-15172-0-83710500-1425205450_thumb.p

 

Not to be solely relied upon, but CAPE/Li do not seem to be that conducive for anything organised.

 

post-15172-0-81355500-1425205616_thumb.p

 

But here's hoping for a teaser to start this years storm hunt?

 

Good luck all :)  :yahoo:   :good:

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All eyes on the storm out west - I really hope the lightning activity persists, it looks like a good'un!

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*see's a load of lightning south of Ireland* OOO this goin be good *grabs crumpets*

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Big Red blob of sferics on ATD but personally I think the lightning activity will have stopped by the time any rain reaches here.

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Going by model guidance, the thundery activity will head in to Wales before dying out slowly. However, there's a nice signature line showing, from SW to NE - A few rumbles still possible within the line of showery rain.

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Big Red blob of sferics on ATD but personally I think the lightning activity will have stopped by the time any rain reaches here.

 

Yep - Not really the right set up today for it to stay organised and hit W UK - squally showers with the odd rumble cannot be ruled out though.

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Just had a look at the rain alarm app and looks like a squall line is starting to develop, could be wrong though.

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it'll be interesting come tomorrow when these showers triggered off will be on the wintry side.

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Just had a look at the rain alarm app and looks like a squall line is starting to develop, could be wrong though.

Yep deffo http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Hope the squall line keeps developing.

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20150301_141538_zpsow7gjuqq.jpg

Sky to the sw of Milton Keynes. ..

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Rain has arrived here few sferics about to hopefully will get something here.

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Clearing through now ,produced heavy wet snow in my location and one rumble of thunder earlier ...

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Torrential rain & booming thunder.

post-19153-0-67642000-1425231612_thumb.j

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Torrential Rain, and a nice juicy Thunderstorm here too. Directly Overhead now... Quite a surprise.

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Another strike! Spring coming in with a bang. :)

Edit: now we have 5p sized hailstones

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Keep an eye on the graphics after it passed over east london, a friends weather station just received gusts of 70mph in last 5 mins, is this "bit more than a storm" ?  , just looked out the window and the back end of that front has storm force gusts.

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very good thunderstorm moved through here at 5pm, good lightning flashes and thunder, was overhead for a time, heavy hail as well, still slushy covering of hail in parts

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A fair few sferics on the N Devon coast now,anybody in that area seing any lightning flashes,also some quiet heavy showers popping up in the NW area too(west yorks/lanc's),could produce the odd sferic and maybe of a wintry flavour too.

 

EDIT:2 sferics S of Burnley,Lanc's

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Estorfex have issued a level 1 for the far south east but cannot see what the risk is??

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post-19153-0-34154100-1425311842_thumb.j

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 02 Mar 2015 06:00 to Tue 03 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 02 Mar 2015 05:01

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A cold unstable airmass is driven into western and central Europe by a large low over the Norwegian Sea. The cold front lies over Poland to the Alps around 12Z. A sharp shortwave trough followed by drier and colder air passes over the southern UK into the European mainland, where a few hundred J/kg CAPE builds up during the afternoon ahead of the front. The trough likely triggers a wintry squall line moving at 80-100 km/h given the mean flow aloft. This will translate in similar speed wind gusts in convective downdrafts. The convective line may produce widespread gusts over 25 m/s, exceeding the level 2 criterion of 15% chance within 40 km from a point.

Tornadoes are also possible with 10-15 m/s low level shear and a 0-6 km shear over 30 m/s. SREH of almost 200 m²/s² was predicted with this feature in the Keraunos WRF model of 18Z. The low/ mid level flow is weaker along the northern portion of the line which may limit the threat over northern Germany and Poland. The line may survive the night as it is driven by strong dynamics and reach Slovakia and surroundings.

http://www.estofex.org

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interesting stuff, lots of showers out to the west of the uk, and interesting line building over bristol /Gloucester - there's also a very intense cell over Blackburn area.

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