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Roger J Smith

March 2015 CET forecasts

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March CET averages and trivia

14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)
8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997)
8.3 ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
8.2 ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
7.6 ... 2014 CET
6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010

6.5 ... mean of 21st century (2001-2014)
6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000)
5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990
5.3 ... mean of all 356 years (1659-2014)
5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900)
5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

2.8 ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962)

2.7 ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 

0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

 

Enter your forecast by the end of Saturday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Tues 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

 

 

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Thanks Roger and J10 for doing all the legwork.Great stuff

I'm getting my guess in early. My feeling is that if February hasn't given us our first below average month for some time then March definitely will. Perhaps not by a great margin but....

My guess is 6.3c

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10C  :(  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

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Below is the March CET from 1659-2014, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

z15VmIl.png

 

February is likely to finish somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5C. The average March following February in that range is 5.2C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.41C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.1C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.97C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +2.02C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.8C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.01C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 7.0C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +0.79C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 6.7C.

 

The current 30 year mean (6.6C) is the joint warmest on record with the 30 years up to 2012 and 2010. Anything above 6.4C this March will take the 30 year mean up to 6.7C for the first time.

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I have punted below average for so long and yet to get close, so this time I will go for 7.2....probably ensure the freezer opens now!

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6.0 please.

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11.1C

Warmest March on record to hell with it winter blues kicking in...

COLDEST SPRING IN MILLENNIA IS ON THE WAY. :cold:

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5.9 C as a marker in case I forget, this month has a way of ending before you are ready.

 

Thinking that the slow trend to a deeper east coast trough in North America may amplify the downstream patterns and any sort of  higher latitude blocking is overdue, in fact would not be surprised if there is a minor 2013 redux although I don't expect anything nearly that extreme, maybe a 7 to 5 backwards move.

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5.3 over due a dead on average

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I will go with 6.0

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11.1C

Warmest March on record to hell with it winter blues kicking in... COLDEST SPRING IN MILLENNIA IS ON THE WAY. :cold:

I've had a change of heart this is looking unlikely, I will go with 3.9C a well below average start to the month, come latter part of the month Spring will respond. I've not had this feeling this winter I'm feeling it now. :p

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