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damianslaw

Candelmas

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I always put a thread up about Candelmas.. ignore if you wish..

 

Today is Candelmas day and in weather folklore it was a chance to look for signs of what the rest of winter would bring. It coincides the mid point between the winter solstice and spring equinox.

 

The saying goes if candelmas be fair and bright, winter will have another flight, if on candelmas day it be shower and rain, winter is gone and will not come again..

 

Many ignore weather folklore and you do have to take them with a pinch of salt, but I always think there is a grain of truth with this one.

 

Traditionally the atlantic begins to go quieter by now and blocking becomes more likely and harder to shift.

 

Based on today's weather we can expect 6 more weeks of winter..

 

2010 and 2013 brought similar conditions to now.. and indeed winter held on through until March at least..

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I know the nights are still long but HP's can also feed warm airs over us here whilst blocking the Atlantic?

 

I could put up with the gloom if it brought unseasonally warm temps!!!!

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I love these sayings, we used to have a book of them at Manchester Weather Centre and often used them when doing radio  broadcasts. Like you say, sometimes they work sometimes the don't, but then maybe weather forecasts also fit that saying?

From a retired forecaster=heresy=never take the weather too seriously apart from its ability to cause serious effects on folk and property.

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Let's hope this rings true, though synoptics have to be just that bit better into March for any lengthy wintry spell. 

 

Anyone know when the 'as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger' phrase becomes invalid? I'm guessing some time around mid-February.

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Let's hope this rings true, though synoptics have to be just that bit better into March for any lengthy wintry spell. 

 

Anyone know when the 'as the days grow longer, the cold gets stronger' phrase becomes invalid? I'm guessing some time around mid-February.

 

There is another saying 'winter's back breaks around middle of February'..

 

Late Feb can still be notably cold under high pressure with a cold pool, an easterly and certainly northerlies and north easterlies, the arctic is at its coldest in late Feb/early March and so too are SST values around British shores.

 

I think the saying about as the days grow longer the cold gets stronger is right, generally the UK experiences its coldest conditions post winter solstice, I would agree the saying looses credence by middle of Feb, but it isn't to say we still can't see our coldest conditions of the year thereafter, 2005 was a good case in point, likewise 2013 with the coldest 30 day mean occurring late Feb through to late March, but the law of averages is that the UK experiences its coldest conditions at some point post winter solstice through until start of latter part of Feb - cut off about the 20th Feb. Right now we are slap bang in the middle of what is the coldest core of the winter.

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There is another saying 'winter's back breaks around middle of February'..

Late Feb can still be notably cold under high pressure with a cold pool, an easterly and certainly northerlies and north easterlies, the arctic is at its coldest in late Feb/early March and so too are SST values around British shores.

I think the saying about as the days grow longer the cold gets stronger is right, generally the UK experiences its coldest conditions post winter solstice, I would agree the saying looses credence by middle of Feb, but it isn't to say we still can't see our coldest conditions of the year thereafter, 2005 was a good case in point, likewise 2013 with the coldest 30 day mean occurring late Feb through to late March, but the law of averages is that the UK experiences its coldest conditions at some point post winter solstice through until start of latter part of Feb - cut off about the 20th Feb. Right now we are slap bang in the middle of what is the coldest core of the winter.

I consider the period of mid November to mid March as the window of opportunity in regards to deep cold.

Using -20C as the benchmark, it seems to tie in with this idea almost perfectly as the earliest it's been recorded in the UK is 14th November, and the lastest is 14th March. Appreciable cold outside these dates obviously can occur, but it's probably impossible to be of the same intensity as inside it.

I remember creating a thread on this website a while ago, in which I calculated an "average record low" by month, and half months, using the daily record lows. If I remember right, the second half of January had the lowest average. I also remember a marked drop and rise in November and March respectively, in regards to record cold between each half of the months.

I've looked but I can't find it. I presume it's archived.

Anyway, I'd argue that, based on what I've just said, that winter's back isn't truly broken until mid March.

Here's the link I used:

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/lowtempsyear.php

Interesting that there is also another noticeable rise in temperatures after 21 March - the Spring equinox.

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Ne'er cast a clout till may be out!! Certainly true in these parts.

A perfect storm would be February of 1947 [or 1986],first 2 weeks of march 1947,followed up by 2013 then april of 1986 with the 3rd week from 1981 and may 1996 with early june from 1975!!!

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Ne'er cast a clout till may be out!! Certainly true in these parts.

A perfect storm would be February of 1947 [or 1986],first 2 weeks of march 1947,followed up by 2013 then april of 1986 with the 3rd week from 1981 and may 1996 with early june from 1975!!!

That would be brutal extended cold!

To further emphasise my point, March 1947 was subzero in the CET zone until around the 15th...there's that mid March "cut off" point again. Even so, March 2013 was a bit of an eye opener in terms of the length and depth of the cold after mid month; -12.9C on April's doorstep isn't to be sniffed at. Goes to show the month as a whole can be very cold, even if historically the bulk of the cold occurs in the first half.

I guess "6 more weeks of winter" on the 2nd Feb does actually take you to mid March - there may be some truth to the saying.

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