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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

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no surprises this morning, the deep scandinavian trough has been dropped by the gfs and now fall into line with the type of pattern the noaa anomaly charts show.

 

attachicon.gif610day.03.gif attachicon.gif814day.03.gif

 

a pretty normal westerly/north of westerly flow (i hesitate to say northwesterly as it doesnt look to me like a clear northwesterly) with a mixture of pm and tm air and depressions lining up to cross the uk. id suggest the current gfs/ecm are correct, an unsettled westerly flow, pretty normal/average.

 

Wouldn't disagree with that Mushy. The ext, eps has the trough Greenland orientated SE to the UK as the main player pushing the HP further south thus going along with the trend that the UK weather may well become more unsettled towards the end of the month.

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No real change from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, still trending very unsettled with bouts of persistent and sometimes heavy rain and gales, perhaps severe gales separated by short outbreaks of polar maritime air with frequent showers for the north and west, some showers penetrating further SE and turning wintry at times with hail, thunder, sleet and snow although any disruptive snow would probably be over higher ground in the north. Looking at temperatures next week, close to average in the south, rather below average for Scotland.

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Only 10 posts since this morning. Are the other 84 people on line right now, waiting for someone to post charts and make comments, I wonder?

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UKMO and GFS both showing a northerly on Saturday

 

UW120-21.GIF?16-17gfs-0-120.png?12

 

Any showers could easily fall as snow for the northern hills, for the majority of England and Wales temps look to be around 5c to 7c

 

120-580UK.GIF?16-12

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Well lets hope we can at least get some good low 850mb temperatures pulled down from the north atlantic later this week and the following weeks .no sign of any major cold though from any high level block unless models pick up over coming days .would be nice to finish the winter with general cold and some wintry fun ,i,m not giving up yet on 16th February theres been plenty of late winter and spring snowfalls over past History , I await tonights runs with interest , :cold:

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Only 10 posts since this morning. Are the other 84 people on line right now, waiting for someone to post charts and make comments, I wonder?

 

There is nothing new to add, a strong westerly upper flow with deep depressions at the surface at times, coldish incursions but no prolonged cold=quiet on here!

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Yes very little to interest anything but ducks and wind turbines for the next 10 days for most. The usual suspects may get some transient wintry mix from the westerlies and cold uppers:

 

  MarkVogan
UPDATED POST: UK Snow Making A Comeback For Some? http://t.co/JPRa7GkpJX http://t.co/823t9Kl2eJ
16/02/2015 16:30

 

No change from the GFS 12z with the Atlantic in charge for the next two weeks. The south benefits more from any drier interludes, but they are few and far between. D14:

 

post-14819-0-28271300-1424106269_thumb.p

 

I suspect by the end of week 2 the NH profile will improve, coinciding with the Pacific Ridge decaying. So later in the week the next pattern change should start to manifest...probably.

At least we are not in the US. Their astonishing winter continues:

 

  MJVentrice
Just *1 run* but 12Z GFS shows no signs of the end of the winter tunnel. FOUR arctic air mass intrusions in 2 weeks. http://t.co/vcC5z83sW8
16/02/2015 17:06 Edited by IDO
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There is nothing new to add, a strong westerly upper flow with deep depressions at the surface at times, coldish incursions but no prolonged cold=quiet on here!

That, and the fact that an incorrect analysis or prediction and you're going to get 'flamed'

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Gfs 12z at the end of the run lol,,deepest fi of couse,could this be a trend!

 

post-16960-0-84361300-1424108813_thumb.ppost-16960-0-60386100-1424108818_thumb.ppost-16960-0-77482300-1424108822_thumb.p

 

America mostly gets it again i see,infact,there is no let up over NE America through this run.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204&carte=1

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Again the GFS continues this evenings run with a cool/cold N/W flow from around the 21st for the last 1/4 of the Month, With some stormy conditions for the North as Lows swing in off the N/Atlantic bringing gales or even severe gales at times, With heavy rain and blizzard conditions at times effecting the Highlands. And the potential for a wintry mix also for N/England over elevated areas with rain to lower levels and for the South, Temps will be just below average but feeling bitter in the wind.

 

It looks like Winter will end with the same pattern it started on.. A much more interesting period of weather coming up, Which will be a welcome sight for some! 

 

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I agree pm, the last few weeks of model watching have been almost unbearable at times but they will soon be action packed and some of us will see some of the white stuff at times thanks to frequent polar maritime incursions.

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That, and the fact that an incorrect analysis or prediction and you're going to get 'flamed'

 

I can live with that, I believe in being honest.

 

sorry I should have added making an objective assessment of all available data.

Edited by johnholmes
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The GEFS paint a cold mobile picture out to the end of February

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

 

ECM cold too for Northen Britain. If March starts cold, so be it

 

ECU0-240.GIF?16-0

 

Winds originating from a fridgidly cold Arctic source.

ECH1-240.GIF?16-0

Edited by winterof79
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Tonight's GEFS 12z mean looks very unsettled throughout and rather cold at times. I think it will be cold enough at times for snow on hills of Scotland, n.Ireland, n.England, n.Wales and the n.Midlands during the outlook period covering late February and early march, and a risk further south too. It looks like conditions could be stormy at times with increased cyclogenesis with locally disruptive weather and met office warnings at some point in the next few weeks.

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Here are the cold highlights of the Ecm 12z tonight, there are a few milder days here and there but the majority are colder and the run ends wintry with 522 dam thicknesses quite widespread..some parts of the UK and not just the hills and mountains, will get some snow from time to time and frost / ice.

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Edited by Frosty.
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A change to much more unsettled and changeable Atlantic weather is now on it's way that's for sure.

A strong looking jet firing lows across the north in a strong westerly pattern

post-2026-0-37013500-1424120427_thumb.pn

 

which looks like seeing the month out.

post-2026-0-93763400-1424120498_thumb.pn

 

quite chilly at times as colder pm air cuts in briefly behind the passing deep lows with i guess plenty of transient snowfalls over the northern mountains in the next 2 weeks.

Overall temperatures look quite depressed even down here in Warks according to the ens graph 

post-2026-0-43192600-1424120637_thumb.pn

 

so quite a chilly and sometimes windy set up to end Winter with bands of rain passing through followed by squally sometimes wintry showers with only brief drier slots.

Unfortunately for snow lovers there's no chance of any widespread cold establishing in this mobile pattern so from that pov Winter does look like petering out on a disappointing note.

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Models today showing winter ending on the same note it started, with a renewed jet streak and low pressure piling in polar maritime airflows especially for the north. The beginning-mid Dec period was preety chilly here with some snow and very similar synoptics, however, SST's are colder and the arctic colder than then, shouldn't be a problem for snow to modest levels.

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Well the 18z gfs could be a surprise for the SW at just 102 hrs with this slack LP and -4 uppers,marginal though but some folk could get lucky.

 

post-16960-0-59585600-1424124519_thumb.ppost-16960-0-00086300-1424124525_thumb.ppost-16960-0-77598300-1424124531_thumb.p

Edited by Allseasons-si

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I can live with that, I believe in being honest.

 

sorry I should have added making an objective assessment of all available data.

Hi John, not aimed at you by any means as you are one of the more seasoned posters and I enjoy your year round input. However, for us 'newbies' it can be a little daunting when I do see good posters who have a sound take on the models being shot down on occasions. Anyway, I admire the bravery and the willingness to stake reputations on longer term model forecasting. Keep up the good work.

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Looking at the GEFs and ECM anomalies tonight, although there are differences, orientation and depth of the UK trough and thus the position of the HP ( the GEFS putting it further east and north) there is nothing to indicate anything other than unsettled Atlantic driven weather for the UK. In the ext versions the ECM maintains the more influential trough position with the HP banished south whereas the GEFs has the trough more aligned west-east allowing ridging into the UK so this has yet to be resolved.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

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I am surprised that no one has mentioned the jma model as it has -6 uppers sweeping through the country on three occasions with -8 at the end getting into Scotland

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=0&nh=0&archive=0

 

the trends are certainly getting colder.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Unfortunately for snow lovers there's no chance of any widespread cold establishing in this mobile pattern so from that pov Winter does look like petering out on a disappointing note.

Where is his crystal ball..mmm what will the weather be on the 15th june..im in Portugal then

Milder than next week,when there will be snow showers for many in the North.Frequent polar incursions shown by the 00z GFS out to the end.Let's see what ECM says as UKMO has a cold feed by next Monday/Tuesday too.

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