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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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All important wet bulb level has increased - not good!

Flaming typical by the time it drops back down I bet there will be no precip or it'll be too warm.

post-19153-0-95166000-1422585009_thumb.j

Parts of Essex are getting heavy snow supposedly, away from coasts & with little alt.

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This so-called Polar Low was described as a 'small feature' by the METO this morning and would be in the Channel by mid morning. giving a smattering of rain, sleet or a dusting of snow on it's travels.

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Woke up at 2am to sleet went to bed woke up at 6 moderate snow and a cover of about a 1cm.

 

All of this was forecast to be sleet even the showers I got at 10pm last night.

 

Real nice for something to finally work in my favour.

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Snowing here now too - we had snow 11pm, then again about 2-3-am, rain at 5am and then this at 6am... Still going now..post-15513-0-95101100-1422599299_thumb.j

Edited by Team Jo
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This so-called Polar Low was described as a 'small feature' by the METO this morning and would be in the Channel by mid morning. giving a smattering of rain, sleet or a dusting of snow on it's travels.

I know I annoyed people going on about it not being a polar low, but honestly how could it have been? We are just diluting our weather terminology so that it is becoming meaningless dumbed down garbage! This has really peed me off and everyone gets suckered in by the hype it's just pathetic, perhaps I contribute to the wrong kind of forum

Edited by TonyH
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Looked like the centre went thorugh Somerset and Dorset, rain on its western side with the coastal gales, eastern PPN had more snow in it , over the cold air for central/SE Britain,The wintry feed from NW England down to SE England kept going all night

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I know I annoyed people going on about it not being a polar low, but honestly how could it have been? We are just diluting our weather terminology so that it is becoming meaningless dumbed down garbage! This has really peed me off and everyone gets suckered in by the hype it's just pathetic, perhaps I contribute to the wrong kind of forum

Yes but you are looking back 12 hours later. Fine to review what happened but not to slag people off who were in discussion much earlier in its travels off W.Scotland. If you want to show your points for your view, list them and they can be answered.

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Looked like the centre went thorugh Somerset and Dorset, rain on its western side with the coastal gales, eastern PPN had more snow in it , over the cold air for central/SE Britain,The wintry feed from NW England down to SE England kept going all night

 

Yes. So the slagging off of the MetO was proved wrong, and the pro on pro criticism shown to be even more bizarre than it read at the time. And meanwhile the truth of the story was just a simple reading of the predicted flow which dug further south rather than SE. 

 

We move on to the next moment of interest (hopefully not too far away!) but perhaps some lessons learned here...

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I know I annoyed people going on about it not being a polar low, but honestly how could it have been? We are just diluting our weather terminology so that it is becoming meaningless dumbed down garbage! This has really peed me off and everyone gets suckered in by the hype it's just pathetic, perhaps I contribute to the wrong kind of forum

 

I went to bed and you were moaning about it not being a Polar Low... I wake up, your still moaning about it not being a Polar Low.

 

If something so insignificant peed you off so badly, and were all pathetic for getting "suckered" by the hype, then maybe you are right.

 

Some of us actually got quite a dumping from it, thanks !

 

Anyways, just like to say what a great thread it was last night, lots of interest, nearly 2000 people were on the forum, Server Overload!

 

Lets hope we see another, "Polar Low" sometime soon !

Edited by Dr. Astro
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Rather pleased with my forecast. The main area of snow was indeed NW England towards SE and not Wales, SW as the BBC were suggesting. Also the track of the low proved to be further SE than the Euro 4 was predicting.

 

Nowcasting is all about sat, radar and not model output!

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Well said  Dr Astro "Anyways, just like to say what a great thread it was last night, lots of interest, nearly 2000 people were on the forum,"

 

It was a super experience and all the differing views lead to lots more trails of info and reading. 

Still no snow for me  :nonono: 

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Rather pleased with my forecast. The main area of snow was indeed NW England towards SE and not Wales, SW as the BBC were suggesting. Also the track of the low proved to be further SE than the Euro 4 was predicting.

 

Nowcasting is all about sat, radar and not model output!

Your forecast was pretty accurate with us in Essex being in a sweet spot.]

 

1-2cm lying right now with neighbouring counties having very little or nothing at all!

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Well said  Dr Astro "Anyways, just like to say what a great thread it was last night, lots of interest, nearly 2000 people were on the forum,"

 

It was a super experience and all the differing views lead to lots more trails of info and reading. 

Still no snow for me  :nonono: 

 

Ah Jo, it will come !

 

It's not often these features come along, but I can imagine even people at the Met Office were quite excited about it ?

 

For me, it's the best kind that can happen, as it's such a now-cast and can go literally anywhere.

 

A Major :wallbash:  For forecasters, but i'm sure they love it.

 

TEITS - Good job, same track as I had it, NW England, through the middle and down the SE.

 

Was very surprised it got to the SE mind.

Edited by Dr. Astro
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Whilst precipitation discrimination was always going to be difficult to pinpoint,

I must say for the overall track hats off to the NMM once again for staying pretty consistent with what turned out to be the correct track for the Northern flank vs the Euro4 and, presumably, UKV. Not the first time this winter the NMM has proven itself.

We ended up with 3-4cms at home. On the train to London now and still a blanket of white as far as the eye can see approaching sawbridgeworth

SK

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