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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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The precipitation turns wintry quickly over Northern Ireland

The first Precipitation is now over the Irish sea where it gets thermal warmth.

This should help increase the intensity as it reaches the West Wales Coast

 

Currently showers in front of it have turned readily to snow as they moved just a few miles inland over Wales.

Cool air over Ireland will have mixed in somewhat so we now will soon have a better idea of what this will do.

If this turns to Sleet and snow fairly quickly over Wales this gives many areas a chance tonight.

Next hour will iron out how much the cold air mixes with the less cold warm sector.

 

From whats happened so far i would suggest Met office called this right, but we are approaching a crucial point .

If Met office are right expect it to become snow around Brecon - Newtown line thru Wales, if earlier then its more widespread.

This has a knock on effect further South and East but in the South i suspect best that can be hoped for is 50mile further South for wintry precipitation. Any reports on wind speed increasing and further Sferics

 

I read that as a poem first, due to your formatting :D

 

Good post :)

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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Remember that precip type radars depend on model data, it is not necessarily representative of what's actually happening.

I know  Nick but its all we got apart from any live reports

I also feel that they are fairly accurate and like model watching trend is your friend.

 

But your right to point out that the sleet could be snow and vice versa

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Was a cracking bit of snow at lunchtime eh? :D

But yeah - would love for this Polar Low to come our way, yup I'm greedy lol

 

Sure was, brought back memories of late 2010! We've done pretty well recently!

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I know  Nick but its all we got apart from any live reports

I also feel that they are fairly accurate and like model watching trend is your friend.

 

But your right to point out that the sleet could be snow and vice versa

 

The live reports are invaluable in situations like this, I think I'm going to have all the regional threads open in tabs :p

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Totally unbiased here (as it will rain in Swansea) but I really do think (looking at the radar) that it will hit west coast of Wales (Gwynedd) and continue its SE track trough Wales into the West Country and exit between Exeter and Bournemouth

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just had a quick compare with the hi-res models and current v6 radar, and to summarize the track as modeled looks pretty accurate with past few hourly radar observations, but, ppn does look more organized on radar

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The live reports are invaluable in situations like this, I think I'm going to have all the regional threads open in tabs :p

 

Am I likely to get blasted please NIck?,   The Met Office PPN predictive element has some sort of streamer showing at least very close but Netweather warning only mentions Wales, the Midlands and SW England.

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Am I likely to get blasted please NIck?,   The Met Office PPN predictive element has some sort of streamer showing at least very close but Netweather warning only mentions Wales, the Midlands and SW England.

 

You may be too far north and east for the precip, but you will be in colder air so anything you do get will be of snow. 

 

The honest answer right now is I don't really know! It's about as nowcast a situation as you can get.

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You may be too far north and east for the precip, but you will be in colder air so anything you do get will be of snow. 

 

The honest answer right now is I don't really know! It's about as nowcast a situation as you can get.

 

Cheers, it looks like there is a detached shower band disconnected from the swirl of the low.

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I really hope this polar low will bring some decent snow here; it has been a long while since I've seen good snow, and the snow is actually settling tonight.  :closedeyes:

Anyone know if Warwick has a chance, being in the South Central Midlands?

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I really hope this polar low will bring some decent snow here; it has been a long while since I've seen good snow, and the snow is actually settling tonight.  :closedeyes:

Anyone know if Warwick has a chance, being in the South Central Midlands?

 

I think anyone in the midlands has a chance....nobody can predict the all important track with certainty....just for some realism though here in Wellesbourne Temp is 1.3 DP 0.0  so very marginal unless the heavy ppn can lower the temp 

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Very good estimate , puts mids , East wales , and maybe Oxford in firing line , exactly my predicted path '')

Is everyone too scared to give an estimation ?

My only worry from an IMBY point of view is that the centre of low tracks close to here and there will be precip both sides of it..

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Very good estimate , puts mids , East wales , and maybe Oxford in firing line , exactly my predicted path '')

Is everyone too scared to give an estimation ?

Loads of posters have, earlier, when Jo asked.

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