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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    A YELLOW FLASH warning of Snow has been issued for parts of Northern Ireland.

    A polar low has developed near Scoland and is expected to track over eastern areas of NI this evening, this was unexpected hence a flash warning has been issued. This is likely to bring an area of snow for Co Antrim and Co Down, which could be heavy. Accumulations of 2 - 5 cm are likely in a short space of time and accumulations of up to 10cm locally and over the hills.

     

    Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want :pardon:   

     

    Should we call it a Modern Polar Low? :p

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Polar lows and heat lows are classed as Thermal lows but a Polar low will take heat from the sea surface and also get latent heat from the instablity action going on within the low, such as CBs forming. 

    so perhaps a chocolate teapot low can join the thermal gang


    Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

    me neither

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Polar Low or not, attached are the reported after effects as it passed by Barra, an island off the NW of Scotland.  :cold:

     

    pp.jpg

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

     

     

    I don't like criticising fellow forecasters, but the BBC and Met Office are notoriously slow at updating to real-time situations as we know. It's infuriating! They might be right though, you never know.

     

    The BBC respond to what the Met tell them, and I think that is a very inaccurate representation of the Met's approach. What the Met will not do is be alarmist - and they wont respond to a potential situation until they are sure about it. To imply that they have not been scanning their high res models in the build up to this evening is poppycock. IF has posted many times on here as to the regular briefings that go on daily, and the constant analysis of data in Exeter and the very swift flow of advice to the Beeb. Are you saying that you think members on here have analysed the 12z Euro4 model before Exeter have got around to doing it, and are faster than those paid full time to interpret that data? 

     

    Let's wait and see what happens. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    The BBC respond to what the Met tell them, and I think that is a very inaccurate representation of the Met's approach. What the Met will not do is be alarmist - and they wont respond to a potential situation until they are sure about it. To imply that they have not been scanning their high res models in the build up to this evening is poppycock. IF has posted many times on here as to the regular briefings that go on daily, and the constant analysis of data in Exeter and the very swift flow of advice to the Beeb. Are you saying that you think members on here have analysed the 12z Euro4 model before Exeter have got around to doing it, and are faster than those paid full time to interpret that data? 

     

    Let's wait and see what happens. 

     

    In past instances they have been slow to change forecasts when things are evidently not going to plan, not always, but it does happen.

     

    And for what it's worth, I am also paid full time to do what you've described. 

     

    Anyway, back to the topic...

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I don't like criticising fellow forecasters, but the BBC and Met Office are notoriously slow at updating to real-time situations as we know. It's infuriating! They might be right though, you never know.

     

    Indeed and in this day and age there isn't any excuse for it.

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    Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

     

     

     

     

    "A favoured position for the formation of polar lows is on the western flank of an occluded low" Met O forecasting notes

     

    Can't argue with that. This 'Polar Low' has warmer uppers than the ones that struck the Shetland Isles in Feb 2001 and Dec 1995. The latter dumped 1ft of snow on Xmas Eve.

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  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    The precipitation area appears to be expanding  as it moves southwards (not necessarily gaining intensity, but expanding a little)

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    Should we call it a Modern Polar Low? :p

    Postmodern Polar Low. lol

    Edited by Costa Del Fal
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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want :pardon:   

    Nah back in the 70s you knew it was a polar low alright, it put down a foot of snow in 6 hours at -5c!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

    Could be Met Éireann?

     

    Not sure if they have that warning, I can't read Irish.

    Edited by CAPE-steve
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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    Lots of lightning being thrown by this polar low, all on the southern flank, so it could be a loud night for a few people.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Polar Low or not, attached are the reported after effects as it passed by Barra, an island off the NW of Scotland.  :cold:

     

    pp.jpg

     

    Not according to this old news report:

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/jan/09/us-polar-vortex-the-best-pictures

     

    :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

     

    I best hide my head in shame.  :nonono: Right, no more derailing the thread from me, back I go to my regional hosting job.  :)

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Interesting to see how this PL will effect the model output in the next few days, I certainly expect some changes to the shorter term NWP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Agree that there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls along eastern flank of this rapid moving low.

     

    Southwest Wales should be placed under a red alert for very strong winds overnight, pressure gradient on western flank of low looks extreme on meso-scale models. WNW to NNW 70 mph gusting to 110 is quite possible with this once it gets over the Irish Sea and moves inland in central Wales. For parts of Cornwall, Devon and western Somerset, 60 mph gusting to 100 by about 0300-0600h. These may be the greatest impacts of the system.

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    Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

    Agree that there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls along eastern flank of this rapid moving low.

     

    Southwest Wales should be placed under a red alert for very strong winds overnight, pressure gradient on western flank of low looks extreme on meso-scale models. WNW to NNW 70 mph gusting to 110 is quite possible with this once it gets over the Irish Sea and moves inland in central Wales. For parts of Cornwall, Devon and western Somerset, 60 mph gusting to 100 by about 0300-0600h. These may be the greatest impacts of the system.

    A PL weakens rapidly once it makes landfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Agree that there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls along eastern flank of this rapid moving low.

     

    Southwest Wales should be placed under a red alert for very strong winds overnight, pressure gradient on western flank of low looks extreme on meso-scale models. WNW to NNW 70 mph gusting to 110 is quite possible with this once it gets over the Irish Sea and moves inland in central Wales. For parts of Cornwall, Devon and western Somerset, 60 mph gusting to 100 by about 0300-0600h. These may be the greatest impacts of the system.

    Seems a bit extreme Roger - that would surprise me there were 100mph gusts over Pembrokeshire tonight!

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