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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

Nick L

By Nick L
in Regional

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

A little look into the future and the possibility of something more significant next week has grown on the 12z model data IMO now.

A good number of EC ens/GEFS members show a shallow low dropping South from the Iceland area on Monday. I'd give the liklehood of this low manifesting at a reasonably confident 60% now.

HOWEVER, there are still large variations on the track of this low and any disturbances running in behind it (ala GFS Op) which have large ramifications on whether we see rain/sleet/snow etc.

The possibility of a significant snow event affecting parts of the West Country on Mon/Tues is probably the highest it has been so far this winter, but the probability ofit being a damb squib is still probably slightly higher due to the ens variations.

As things stand at the moment though, at this range, if you are looking for a notable snowfall then you should be very interested and satisfied with early next weeks developments for now.

 

Agreed AWD and in case you and others missed it, here was my post with regards to the GEFS ensembles from earlier.  :good:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3150493

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liam300 Rookie

liam300

Posted
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzard, Hot & Sunny
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.
Posted

I think you guys (especially coastal) need to look at dew points and temperature before precipitation. I don't think it's quite cold enough to snow in some areas.

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted

Chat on the north west forum is the polar low has dragged in milder air over Ireland bringing rain so they think it is game over now. Such a shame if that was the case.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Chat on the north west forum is the polar low has dragged in milder air over Ireland bringing rain so they think it is game over now. Such a shame if that was the case.

 

Too early to tell but media forecasts show it as a largely rain/sleet event for our patch with hillier regions getting a slight accumulation by first light. I won't be staying up until between say 1am to 3am which is when it should track over us, anyhow. The wind might well wake some folk up instead. My focus is more on the weekend and beyond but today has been and could still yet be a pleasant surprise for many.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Chat on the north west forum is the polar low has dragged in milder air over Ireland bringing rain so they think it is game over now. Such a shame if that was the case.

Wasn't the western flank always meant to pull some moderator in? I thought wrap around was to pull in cooler dp as it heads south?

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Polar Bear Community Regular

Polar Bear

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
Posted (edited)

Thanks Nk and GTLTW id rather listen to what you two thought. Certainly interesting and correct me if I am wrong don't think certain media have picked this up as Armageddon..or maybe they have already exhausted they with the flurries down south and thundersnow up north.. The latter read on the huff post and comments under in Facebook did make me chuckle. Some thought thundersnow was media made up.. Bless ..

Edited by Polar Bear
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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Temp up to 3c now :(

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Always Sunday/ Monday :D

lol! I'm not holding my breath!

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katemart Enthusiast

katemart

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK
Posted (edited)

Wasn't the western flank always meant to pull some moderator in? I thought wrap around was to pull in cooler dp as it heads south?

 

Chat on the north west forum is the polar low has dragged in milder air over Ireland bringing rain so they think it is game over now. Such a shame if that was the case.

 

Jo Farrow has just posted a ppn radar shot in the Polar Low thread showing snow in SW Scotland and western Wales, snow/rain in Antrim and rain and lightning strikes in western Ireland. So East is best if you want snow from the Polar Low. :)

Edited by katemart
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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Looks like Bristol City is off to Wembley! :D Will always have a soft spot for them! :D

 

Wonder if we start some Polar Low chants it will help the Polar Low come towards us?

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I'm watching the track of it and I think it'll clip extreme East of Wales and will largely effect the Midlands and Eastern side of our region before weakening and dragging its feet as it exits SE England around daybreak.

 

Guesswork really on my behalf but I think there is way too much hype over this feature as the Temps are up to 6 and 7 degrees quite widely in this region tomorrow and therefore this feature doesn't really float my boat is all I'm saying. Had we previously had the entrenched deep cold beforehand then that would be a different ball game entirely hence my interest in the weekend and beyond. 

 

I will stay up to watch the 10-dayer on the BBC but bed it will be thereafter for me.

 

Good luck one and all and here's to a dusting for some.  :drinks:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

I'm watching the track of it and I think it'll clip extreme East of Wales and will largely effect the Midlands and Eastern side of this regional before weakening and dragging its feet as it exits SE England around daybreak.

 

Guesswork really on my behalf but way too much hype over this feature as the Temps are up to 6 and 7 degrees quite widely in this patch tomorrow so this feature doesn't really float my boat is all I'm saying. Had we previously had the entrenched deep cold beforehand then that would be a different ball game entirely hence my interest in the weekend and beyond. 

 

I will stay up to watch the 10-dayer on the BBC but bed it will be thereafter for me.

 

Good luck one and all and here's to a dusting for some.  :drinks:

The low will have left by early morning anyway, then the rise in temperatures. Think it will be a case of the low coming through our region Central South but not much precipitation just my overall ideas currently.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

The low will have left by early morning anyway, then the rise in temperatures. Think it will be a case of the low coming through our region Central South but not much precipitation just my overall ideas currently.

 

Indeed. The rises in Temperature currently don't bode well either but I could also be being over pessimistic too. Your patch might be well placed but will the DPs and WBFLs be suitable I wonder. Questions, questions, questions but the answers will arrive during the next four to six hours either way.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Soooo .... GTLabc - whatever your face is :-D - Tell us about the weekend then? ... How much, where and when lol

 

For now I'll refer you to this post, Mrs Stormforce.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82389-south-west-central-southern-england-weather-chat/?p=3144955

 

AWD did a sound analysis a couple of hours back up thread too, which was worth a read.

 

Off to watch that forecast I go. 

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Rich_Clements Rising Star

Rich_Clements

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted

A good dusting on the Cotswold escarpment on the commute tonight nothing major just enough to make the fields look white in the dark (if that makes sense) some of the untreated surfaces were lethal

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

as posted in another thread, ppn looks more organized than has been modeled so far, but considering the track of the low, the welsh mountains could zap a lot of the energy leaving Soms/Wilts/Glouc/Hants with a rain-shadow effect.......also for these areas, the current track is not favourable as the LP center will pass over this area, and ideally we want it to track west of this to have a better chance of catching more organized ppn/snow...........still, all to play for over the next few hours

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

EURO4 will be out soon but I still don't think this is going to tell us much over the next few hours just be wise to keep an eye on radar :D

 

 

NMM 2km

 

nmm_uk1-1-7-0.png?29-23

 

nmm_uk1-1-8-0.png?29-23

Edited by Zephyr
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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

A good dusting on the Cotswold escarpment on the commute tonight nothing major just enough to make the fields look white in the dark (if that makes sense) some of the untreated surfaces were lethal

Indeed it's nice and white tonight. Got home to a dusting then had a good heavy snow shower so a really good covering now and everything frozen . Should get a few inches . All depends on intensity I suppose .

Very exciting though

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

BIt of a fun evening here predictions of rain showers wide of the mark had sleet hail and snow showers. Cracking. Now an upgrade for the weekend as well with sleet and some snow predicted both days. Princetown has 2 days of heavy snow. The roads round here are going to be full of snow tourists!

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Well like every event I will be pulling an all nighter like normal, not many of you know me as I don't post that much but most events I'm posting saying I will pull an all nighter, be it rain, snow, wind, rainbows, thunder and lightning or what ever weather event I hate to miss it! :D even if I do have work the next day! 

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

So, tonight will be rain for me then, it's still warming up 3.4c now, but at least the weekend now has chances and next week looks like it'll bring fun and games. Hopefully we will all be happy this time next week :)

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