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Nick L

South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

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A nice shiny new thread for you folks in SW/Central Southern England :)

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10.8°C was my high today. Currently 7.5°C

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A nice shiny new thread for you folks in SW/Central Southern England :)

Does this shiny new thread come with snow on top?? :D

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Wow a nice feature heading down the west of the UK next Monday could actually benefit folk the further WEST they live, if snow is your thing.

But it's a week away and the models will no doubt change. Still we live in hope.

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That's not the spirit is it?

If i could have,i'd have given you mine :) Honest :spiteful:

(In reply to Cornish snow in the old thread)

Didn't mean it badly at all, I'm happy for you Cornish guys to get in the snowy action... It just starts to take the mick when someone so far south and west manages to experience snow when I haven't! :p

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Blimey, the wrist slashing in the other thread was a bit over the top wasn't it?! I'm very optimistic for the next week... It was reminiscent of the MAD thread in here earlier!

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Cold spell begins this coming Wednesday which dawns warm enough but will get progressively colder from the North during daylight hours. At this stage and also judging by the ensembles I've looked at, the colder interlude should last right through until at least the 5th/6th February, making it a 8-9 day cold spell if that were to verify. Best chances of any wintriness will come from streamer setups aside from probable passing fronts in association with surface features. This latter aspect proving very difficult to pin down as to whether these will ultimately effect your patch and snow on one's own roof as you might expect. Currently I have an inkling for the wintrier interludes to occur on the following dates and a rough approximation of whether it might be a daytime/nighttime event.

 

  • Wednesday 28th January PM onwards
  • Thursday 29th January early hours 
  • Monday 2nd February overnight and during daylight hours 
  • Tuesday 3rd February early hours

 

The first two instances promote marginal events IMHO as a lot of factors will have to come together in order to provide the wintry crystals so many of us want in our own back yards. Yet the latter dates are seemingly less marginal, given the timescales involved the specifics around such events will likely change and may not occur as currently modelled, I urge caution but these might just be the dates to focus on.

 

As stated in the previous thread I have a gut feeling about February being a very cold month and with that in my mind, I am pleased to see today's GFS 12z run promote some bone-chilling 850s in some of the latter stages of its control run in our neck of the woods. The period from the 2nd February to the 6th February looks particularly cold and any precipitation opportunities around then would likely produce the goods for coldies.

 

Eyes down for the rest of tonight's outputs and I simply hope this cold to very cold trend continues to produce eye candy charts which eventually make it to reliable timeframes and snow falls on your roof some day soon. 

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Fingers crossed we will get a bit of snow, us snow starved southerners and even more snow starved westerners certainly deserve a bit of the White stuff.

Things shaping up to be interesting but as always think it could be marginal for us this week, weekend and early next week certainly do look interesting. Let's hope things upgrade and we have 10 inches of snow in few days time.....stranger things have happened!!

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I really don't understand why there's so much excitement?! I don't care how potent a North westerly, or even a Northerly is, other than a chilly feel, it does jack down here.

post-15177-0-52726200-1422296803_thumb.p

The best cold spell was back in December for this area.

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(In reply to Cornish snow in the old thread)

Didn't mean it badly at all, I'm happy for you Cornish guys to get in the snowy action... It just starts to take the mick when someone so far south and west manages to experience snow when I haven't! :p

Understand,no such worries for me,being at the end of the line.

Having said that,about 5-6 years ago,the scilies got a covering and we missed out.

Funny old place,the U.K  :)

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The period from the 2nd February to the 6th February looks particularly cold and any precipitation opportunities around then would likely produce the goods for coldies.

 

 

 

Pants, just when I'm going to be in London. Fingers crossed it will be brought forward or delayed until after, or even better - brought forward and reloaded after!

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Hi ya,

Just wondering what type of weather setup actually does benefit us in the South West..? Easterly and now Northerlys does not seem to and just wondering what does? Thanks?

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Hi ya,

Just wondering what type of weather setup actually does benefit us in the South West..? Easterly and now Northerlys does not seem to and just wondering what does? Thanks?

CHANNEL LOW, CHANNEL LOW...

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CHANNEL LOW, CHANNEL LOW...

you like that chant don't you ? Lol I have the view of the channel, overlooking Portishead outside my house, it has never helped me with snow though ;-(

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Ian's forecast a minute ago was a little more "bullish" than I was expecting re snowfall.

Nothing major, but some overnight snow showers were shown on the extended graphics at the end of the week.

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I really don't understand why there's so much excitement?! I don't care how potent a North westerly, or even a Northerly is, other than a chilly feel, it does jack down here.

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2015-01-26-18-22-12.png

The best cold spell was back in December for this area.

 

It shows snow showers all day Thursday- Friday for here although as always that will dwindle to less as the time nears I expect.

 

I am interested as it is hard to not be with all the hype but still a sceptic.. :search:

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The main thing i noticed on some of the day7/8/9 charts this eve is the kinks in the isobars, which i think indicate more organised precipitation - correct me if i'm wrong.

Still a long way to go, after a number of letdowns so far this Winter, but good chance of seeing snow showers Thursday into Friday i reckon, before *possible* snow upgrade for later in w/e and early next week. 1st week Feb 09 anyone?

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Does this shiny new thread come with snow on top?? :D

And icing! And might aswell chuck in a cherry all round ...

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The main thing i noticed on some of the day7/8/9 charts this eve is the kinks in the isobars, which i think indicate more organised precipitation - correct me if i'm wrong.

Still a long way to go, after a number of letdowns so far this Winter, but good chance of seeing snow showers Thursday into Friday i reckon, before *possible* snow upgrade for later in w/e and early next week. 1st week Feb 09 anyone?

 

You are wrong they just forgot to iron out those 'kinks' but they will be sorted soon enough. :rofl:

 

No you are right I think they indicate instability/troughs but they do tend to fizzle out and break up over wales unless you get a very potent one.

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you like that chant don't you ? Lol I have the view of the channel, overlooking Portishead outside my house, it has never helped me with snow though ;-(

I prefer the dance.

Have a look at TWS's excellent guide to winter set ups. The bottom ones are of interest to us :)

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/56318-guide-to-uk-winter-setups/

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Don't know why some are a bit down in the dumps regarding this up & coming cold snap (spell?), it's the best chance so far this winter for those areas that have not seen any snow so far. Not to mention the charts, especially the fax charts have been showing features in the flow and imo all those saying how it'll be dry away from the usual areas may find they're way off the mark, time will tell of course.

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